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May 10, 2013

(See attached file: PR 130510.pdf) (See attached file: PR 130510.xls)

  • All three wheat contracts closed lower this week due to a sharp drop on Friday following USDA’s first 2013/14 global supply and demand report. Forecasts for record-large world wheat production, unexpectedly high carryout stocks and a 31percent increase in U.S. corn production pressured wheat futures. Earlier in the week, HRW and HRS contracts found support from poor crop conditions and slow planting progress, respectively. MGEX May contract lost 1 cent on the week to close at $8.58/bu. CBOT May wheat closed 15 cents lower at $6.97/bu and KCBT fell 19 cents to $7.72/bu. CBOT May corn fell 12 cents on the week to $6.88/bu and CBOT May soybeans gained 33 cents to $14.88/bu.
  • In its first supply and demand estimates for the 2013/14 marketing year, USDA projected a record 701 MMT in global wheat production. If realized, it would be a 7 percent increase from 2012/13 and greater than the previous record of 697 MMT set in 2011/12. USDA pegged 2013/14 ending stocks at 186 MMT, above average trade estimates of 184 MMT.USDA expects 2013/14 U.S. corn stocks to nearly triple those of 2012/13.
  • USDA downgraded the winter wheat crop condition in its weekly report on Monday. It rated 32 percent as good or excellent, down from 33 percent last week and 63 percent last year at this time. USDA rated 39 percent of the crop as poor or very poor, up from 35 percent last week and just 12 percent last year.
  • USDA reported spring wheat as 23 percent planted as of May 5, down from 82 percent at this time last year and compared to the 5-year average of 50 percent. North Dakota, the largest spring wheat producer, has planted just 7 percent of its intended spring acres, compared to 80 percent last year and a 5-year average of 40 percent.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index fell from 1010 points last week to 994 on Friday. Fewer shipments of iron ore in the Asia Pacific region weighed on the market this week. Decreased demand from the South American grain harvest added pressure. Maritime Research's Grain Freight Index fell from 491.9 to 489.6.
  • The US Dollar Index gained 1 percent this week to close at 83.20.

File Name
PR 130510.pdf
PR 130510.xls
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