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September 18, 2015
  • Wheat futures markets finished mostly flat this week despite hitting a two-week high on Monday due to three-day declines on bearish fundamentals including reports of plentiful crops in major exporting countries, planting pressure and evidence that U.S. wheat exports continue to be uncompetitive in the global market. A weaker U.S. dollar provided limited support. CBOT December wheat added 2 cents on the week to end at $4.87/bu, KCBT finished even at $4.82/bu and MGEX was down 1 cent at $5.11/bu. December CBOT corn closed 10 cents lower at $3.77/bu and November CBOT soybeans dropped 7 cents to $8.67/bu.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • In its weekly crop progress update on September 14, USDA reported spring wheat harvest is 97% complete, well ahead of the 5-year average pace of 86%. Winter wheat planting continues to match pace with the 5-year average with 9% in the ground.
  • Gulf basis softened this week after third-country sales into traditionally U.S. wheat dominated markets indicated U.S. wheat prices are uncompetitive.
  • According to USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report, net sales of 377,500 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were up 30% from the previous week and 7% from the prior 4-week average and within trade expectations of 250,000 to 475,000 MT. Total known exports and outstanding sales for delivery in 2015/16 are 10.7 MMT, 14% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 12.4 MMT. For the week ending on September 11, total USDA export inspections were 6.47 MMT, just 2% lower than this week one year prior.
  • U.S. producers enrolled in subsidy programs reported prevented plantings for September 3 at 696,000 acres up 3,000 acres from the August report. U.S. planted acreage for wheat, including failed acres totaled 52.2 million acres, a 2% decrease from this time last year.
  • Statistics Canada increased its spring wheat production estimate 2% from 18.0 MMT in the August report to 18.4 MMT, which is 13% lower than one year prior.
  • Strategie Grains, a French consulting group, anticipates EU soft wheat production will reach 148 MMT, a 3.5 MMT increase from August projections and down just 1% from final 2014 harvest numbers.
  • After raising its winter wheat production outlook for Australia last week from 23.6 MMT to 25.3 MMT, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics and Rural Sciences (ABARES), also increased the Australian wheat export prediction by 7% to 17.5 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 960 on Friday, up 19% from 818 last week.
  • The US Dollar Index closed at 94.87, down from 95.22 last Friday.

File Name
PR 150918.pdf
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