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October 3, 2014
  • All three nearby U.S. wheat futures contracts closed higher on Friday, marking the first week-over-week gain in six weeks. Supporting futures was a strong commercial sales report and an easing U.S. dollar index after hitting a four-year high early in the week. The Canadian government adjusted down its estimate of 2014/15 wheat production and Russia appears to be backing out of the export market, adding support to futures. Large global supplies and a higher than expected USDA Grain Stocks report limited gains. CBOT December wheat gained 12 cents to close at $4.86/bu. MGEX added 10 cents to $5.43/bu and KCBT closed 4 cents higher at $5.68/bu. CBOT December corn closed unchanged at $3.23/bu and CBOT November soybeans added 2 cents to $9.12.
  • In its quarterly Grain Stocks report released Tuesday, USDA estimated total U.S. wheat stocks on September 1, 2014 totaled 52.1 MMT, up 2% from the same date last year but 11% below the five-year average. On-farm stocks increased 30% year-over-year and off-farm stocks decreased 9%.
  • USDA reported that winter wheat was 43% planted as of September 28, ahead of the five-year average of 36%. Wheat in the southern U.S. Plains is benefiting from good soil moisture and appears to be in good condition.
  • Statistics Canada reduced its 2014/15 wheat production estimate on Friday to 27.5 MMT, down from 27.7 MMT in August and 27 percent lower than last year.
  • Agriculture consultancy UkrAgroConsult increased its forecast for Ukraine's 2014/15 wheat exports to 10.0 MMT from 9.5 MMT previously.
  • Commercial wheat sales exceeded trade expectations this week, according to USDA. Weekly sales of 741,000 MT were up 90% from the prior 4-week average and above trade expectations of 400,000 to 600,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports, through September 25, 2014 were 13.6 MMT, 27% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 18.5 MMT. USDA forecasts 2014/15 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 24.5 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed 80 points higher than last Friday at 887.
  • The US Dollar Index closed higher this week at 86.81, up from 85.80.

File Name
PR 141003.pdf
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