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July 1, 2011

(See attached file: PR 110701.pdf)(See attached file: PR 110701.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures traded mixed this week as CBOT and KCBT nearybs finished down from last Friday, while the MGEX July contract was up on the week. USDA’s acreage and grain stocks reports were bearish for wheat, with USDA reporting both spring wheat acreage and wheat stocks above trade expectations. All three grain exchanges posted losses of over 50 cents on Thursday following the release of the reports. On the week, the CBOT July contract was down 51 cents, closing at $5.84/bu. The KCBT July contract was also down sharply from a week ago, losing 45 cents to close at $7.03/bu. The MGEX nearby contract posted gains of over 30 cents on both Tuesday and Wednesday due to tight supplies of higher protein wheat and fears that flooding in North Dakota would destroy some planted acres. The MGEX July contract was up five cents from last Friday, closing at $8.31/bu. The USDA acreage report was especially bearish for corn, leading to a 29-cent loss for CBOT July corn on the week, which closed at $6.40/bu on Friday. Soybean prices were higher this week on a sale to China and a weaker dollar. The CBOT July soybean contract gained two cents to close at $13.22/bu.
  • In their June acreage report, USDA reported 2011 U.S. total wheat acreage at 56.4 million acres, up five percent from last year. This included 29.1 million acres for HRW, 8.3 million acres for SRW, spring wheat acreage at 13.6 million acres, and durum acreage at 1.7 million acres. The report was bearish for wheat as spring wheat acreage was reported above average trade estimates of 13.3 million acres. USDA also reported corn acreage well above trade estimates. USDA reported 2011 corn acreage at 92.3 million acres, above trade estimates of 90.8 million acres.
  • USDA reported U.S. wheat stored in all positions at 23.4 MMT, down 12 percent from this time last year. On-farm stocks totaled 3.6 MMT, while off-farm stocks totaled 19.9 MMT. This was above trade expectations, which stood at 22.5 MMT for all positions. USDA reported durum stocks in all positions at 1.0 MMT, up two percent from this time last year.
  • The International Grains Council (IGC) projected 2011/12 global wheat output at 666 MMT, 3.0 MMT greater than their previous estimate. The increase is primarily due to greater projections for China and India, which the IGC increased by 2.0 MMT (115 MMT) and 1.0 MMT (84.0 MMT), respectively. The IGC reduced their EU production outlook by 2.3 MMT, to 133.1 MMT, due to dry conditions in Western Europe. The IGC currently projects the 2011/12 U.S. wheat crop at 55.5 MMT.
  • The ICE Dollar Index was down this week. The index fell steadily for five consecutive days to stand at 74.28 on Friday, down from 75.66 a week ago.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index was down this week, closing at 1,590 on Friday. This is down from 1,764 a week ago. The Gulf/Japan route stood at $52/MT on Friday, down $1/MT from a week ago. PNW/Japan stood at $28/MT, down $2/MT from last Friday.

File Name
PR 110701.pdf
PR 110701.xls
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