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December 12, 2014
  • Futures markets closed higher this week. Rumors surrounding possible Russian export restrictions pushed markets lower early in the week and higher at week’s end. Strong U.S. export demand and a weaker U.S. dollar also supported futures. Rising global supply and higher expected ending stocks limited gains. MGEX December wheat added 51 cents on the week to close at $6.70/bu. CBOT gained 19 cents to $6.28/bu and KCBT closed 2 cents higher at $6.34/bu. CBOT December corn added 15 cents to $3.96/bu and CBOT January soybeans gained 11 cents to $10.47/bu.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring only. Premiums for Dark Northern Spring will vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • HRS basis decreased this week due to the futures market rally and lower rail freight prices.
  • Mixed messages from the Russian Agricultural Ministry caused market volatility this week. Early in the week, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said the government was not considering grain export restrictions, which eased industry worries and pushed futures lower. On Thursday, however, Minister Nikolai Fyodorov said his ministry would consider all options to restrain exports except an embargo in order to protect the domestic supply. The news pushed markets higher.
  • The French farm ministry projects soft winter wheat plantings for 2015 harvest at 5.1 million hectares, up 2% from the previous year.
  • In its monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates, USDA increased expected 2014/15 global production by 2.32 MMT to a record 722 MMT, exceeding last year’s record of 715 MMT. USDA also increased projected world ending stocks to 195 MMT, including estimate increases in Russia, EU, Canada and the U.S. USDA upped its global trade projection by 3.12 MMT to 158 MMT, which would be down from 166 MMT last year.
  • According to USDA's weekly Export Sales Report, net sales of 442,300 MT were up 39% from the previous week and on the higher end of trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2014/15 marketing year, through December 4, 2014 were 17.4 MMT, 24% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 23.0 MMT. USDA forecasts 2014/15 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 25.2 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 1,001 on Friday, up from 1,088 last week.
  • The US Dollar Index closed lower this week at 88.35, down from 89.35.

File Name
PR 141212.pdf
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