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February 12, 2016
  • Wheat futures markets fell to multi-year lows this week following a bearish USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, even with a softening U.S. dollar lending support. Uncertainty over Egypt’s phytosanitary requirements also pressured the market. CBOT March wheat dropped 9 cents this week to $4.57/bu and KCBT lost 10 cents to $4.44/bu. MGEX March wheat dipped 5 cents to $4.86/bu. CBOT March corn slipped 7 cents to $3.59/bu and CBOT March soybeans added 5 cents to close at $8.73/bu.
  • Basis is largely unchanged this week. Fog, daylight only navigation and high water continue to support nearby Gulf basis. Pacific Northwest (PNW) basis for hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) was unchanged this week due to slow farmer and export sales. The Columbia Snake River system maintenance closure in March continues to support nearby soft white (SW) basis, but increased farmer selling pressured basis for later contracts.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 263,300 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16. Sales were in line with trade expectations of 150,000 to 300,000 MT and were 6% higher than the prior 4-week average. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all wheat classes for marketing year 2015/16, through Feb. 4, 2016 were 17.0 million metric tons (MMT), 18% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 20.7 MMT.
  • In its February WASDE, USDA pegged global ending stocks at a record 239 MMT, up 11% year over year and 22% higher than the 5-year average, if realized. China ending stocks will climb 23% from 2014/15 to an estimated 93.6 MMT, which accounts for 39% of total global ending stocks.
  • Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) bought its first shipment of wheat in more than a month, 60,000 MT of Romanian wheat, after confusion over phytosanitary requirements disrupted imports to the world’s largest wheat buyer.
  • The Australian Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics and Rural Sciences (ABARES) pegged 2015/16 Australian wheat production at 24.2 MMT, up 2% from 2014/15 production levels.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index lost 2% week over week closing at 291, but rose from Thursday’s low of 290. Friday’s 1-point increase marked the first time the Baltic Index has risen in 2016.
  • The Dollar Index fell 3% week over week to 96.07 from 99.61 last Friday.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • Feb. 26 Price Report publication will be delayed until Feb. 29.

File Name
PR 160212.pdf
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