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March 13, 2009

(See attached file: PR 090313.pdf) (See attached file: PR 090313.xlsx)

Highlights:
  • Futures traded up and down this week. After posting sharp declines following a bearish USDA supply and demand report, the market recouped some of the loss amid spillover strength from soybeans, corn, crude oil and equities. For the week, nearby CBOT futures were off 10 cents/bu, KCBT was 2 cents/bu higher, while the MGE closed unchanged at $6.30/bu. Corn futures closed 22 cents higher at $3.75/bu while soybeans closed up 4 cents/bu at $8.83/bu.
  • USDA, in its March supply and demand report, surprised the market with larger than expected U.S. and world carryout. Higher imports and lower expected domestic use and exports pushed U.S. carryout up 1.5 MMT to 19.4 MMT, up nearly 50 percent from the 5-year average and the highest level since 2001/02. Global ending stocks are seen 5 MMT higher to 156 MMT due to significantly larger stocks in the U.S. and Russia. USDA reduced Russia’s 2008/09 feed use by 3 MMT, increased exports by 1 MMT, resulting in a 2 MMT increase in ending stocks. Global ending stocks have rebounded 35 MMT this year and are at the highest level since 2002/03.
  • Export sales of 362,900 metric tons (MT) were viewed as supportive, up 27 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the previous 4-week average. Hard wheat sales of 237,300 MT were notable with major purchases from Japan (100,000 HRS), Nigeria (69,900 HRW) and Indonesia (35,000 HRW).
  • MY 08/09
    HRW
    SRW
    HRS
    SW
    DUR
    Total
    Total Commitments (MMT)
    10.88
    4.95
    5.17
    3.20
    0.44
    24.64
    USDA Forecast (MMT)
    11.92
    5.17
    5.58
    3.54
    0.46
    26.67
    % of Projected Exports
    91
    96
    93
    90
    95
    92
  • Informa Economics pegged 2009/10 all wheat plantings at 59.7 million acres, which is 3 percent above the USDA Outlook Forum forecast for 58 million acres. USDA’s first official planting estimates will be released on March 31.
  • The Baltic Panamax index leveled off this week after significant gains the previous two weeks, ending at 2,158, down from 2,230 a week earlier. Gulf/Japan moved $2/MT higher at $46/MT and Pacific/Japan was seen $3/MT higher at $25/MT.

File Name
PR 090313.pdf
PR 090313.xlsx
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