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June 12, 2015
  • After hitting their highest point since early April, all three U.S. wheat futures markets closed lower this week following revised USDA supply and demand estimates. A weaker dollar and concerns surrounding dry conditions in Canada, Russia and the EU helped push futures higher early in the week. USDA increased its forecast for 2015/16 global supply on Wednesday, sending futures lower. Analyst group SovEcon also increased its forecast for Russian production by 3.0 MMT to 57.0 MMT. Weak demand for U.S. exports continues to pressure markets. CBOT July wheat fell 13 cents to $5.04/bu, KCBT dropped 9 cents to $5.26/bu and MGEX lost 10 cents to close at $5.61/bu. CBOT July corn closed 8 cents lower at $3.53/bu and CBOT July soybeans added 2 cents to $9.40/bu.
  • In a monthly revision of its world agricultural supply and demand estimates, USDA increased its 2015/16 global production forecast by 2.62 MMT to 722 MMT, down from the record 726 MMT set in 2014/15. USDA increased expected U.S. production 91,000 metric tons to 57.7 MMT, exceeding trade expectations. USDA increased projected world consumption by 2.97 MMT to 720 MMT and global trade estimates to 158 MMT, up 1.46 MMT from last month’s report. USDA left projected U.S. exports unchanged at 25.17 MMT.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring only. Premiums for Dark Northern Spring will vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • Front month basis levels for HRS and HRW are lower this week due to limited export demand for old crop wheat.
  • U.S. winter wheat harvest began this week in the Southern U.S. Plains. In its weekly crop condition update, USDA rated 43% of the crop as good to excellent as of June 7, down 1% from last week and compared to 30% last year at this time. The percentage rated poor or very poor remained unchanged at 20%, down from 44% last year. USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 69% good to excellent, down 2% from both last week and the prior year. Just 5% of the spring crop was rated poor or very poor.
  • In its weekly Export Sales report, USDA said net weekly export sales for the 2015/2016 marketing year, which began June 1, totaled 376,700 metric tons. A total of 567,100 metric tons were carried over from the prior marketing year, which ended May 31. Total known 2015/16 exports and outstanding sales through June 4 were 4.73 MMT, compared to 6.53 MMT on this date last year.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 719, up 21% from 596 last week.
  • The US Dollar Index closed lower this week at 95.00, down from 96.37 last Friday.

File Name
PR 150612.pdf
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