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December 15, 2017
  • Wheat futures ended the week mixed, supported by strong export demand. Ample world wheat stocks limited gains. CBOT March wheat slipped 1 cent to $4.18/bu, KCBT finished flat at $4.17/bu, and MGEX added 9 cents to $6.20/bu. CBOT March corn fell 5 cents to $3.47/bu and CBOT January soybeans dropped 23 cents to $9.67/bu.
  • Increased demand for U.S. wheat exports supported export basis. Demand for 12.0% protein (12% moisture basis) HRW across the United States is supporting HRW export basis. Farmer selling is very slow ahead of the holidays, further supporting export basis. The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System will close for the season on Dec. 20 and will reopen at the end of March.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 588,800 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were well above trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through December 7, 2017, were 18.1 million metric tons (MMT), 9% behind last year's year-to-date total. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • In its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate update, USDA forecast world beginning stocks to increase to 255 MMT, up 6% year over year. World wheat production is expected to increase slightly to an estimated 755 MMT. Global trade will decrease slightly to 182 MMT and global consumption will reach a record 740 MMT in in 2017/18. USDA believes U.S. exports will decrease slightly to 26.5 MMT, down 8% from 2016/17.
  • The Dec. 14 U.S. Drought Monitor shows dry, windy conditions are expanding drought conditions across the United States. The notable exception is the Pacific Northwest, which has received timely rain throughout the fall. The 5-day forecast expects temperatures to remain above normal for most of the United States with little to no precipitation expected across the driest areas. Heavy precipitation is expected to fall in the Pacific Northwest.
  • According to Grain Central, an Australian farm publication, harvest has resumed after heavy rains fell last week on mature wheat, damaging yield potential and quality.
  • On Dec. 14, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported Argentine wheat harvest is 58% complete, up from 45% last week. To date, Argentinian farmers have harvested 8.65 MMT. Bolsa forecasts total Argentine wheat production at 17.0 MMT.
  • Strategie Grains forecast 2018/19 European Union (EU) planted winter wheat area at 23.3 million hectares, down slightly from 2017/18 due to reduced planted area in the Baltic States. Dry conditions in Spain, which hindered fall wheat emergence, were also noted.
  • On Dec. 11, UkrAgroConsult reported winter wheat planted area for 2018/19 at 5.9 million hectares, down 3% from 2017/18 due to unfavorable planting conditions. Winter grains rated in good condition are up to 47% from 38% in 2016, with 36% rated satisfactory compared to 45% last year.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 1668, up from the prior week’s close of 1679.
  • The Dollar Index decreased to 93.55 from last Friday’s close of 93.80.
  • This is the last Price Report for 2017. Price Report will resume on Jan. 5, 2018.
  • Happy Holidays!

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PR171215.pdf
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