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August 15, 2014
  • U.S. wheat futures closed mixed this week. A bearish USDA WASDE report showed higher than expected global wheat stocks, which weighed heavily on markets. Aggressive export competition from Black Sea countries, paired with weak U.S. export sales data, pushed futures lower. Renewed concerns that political tensions in Russian and Ukraine could interrupt exports lent support to markets on Friday. CBOT September wheat added 2 cents to close the week at $5.51/bu. MGEX fell 9 cents to $6.09/bu and KCBT lost 10 cents to $6.20/bu. CBOT September corn gained 14 cents to $3.66/bu and CBOT September soybean fell 11 cents to $11.03/bu.
  • HRS basis fell this week due to increasing pressure from early harvest of what is expected to be a bumper crop.
  • In its monthly WASDE update, USDA raised its 2014/15 global wheat production forecast to a record 716 MMT, up from 705 MMT last month and greater than last year’s record of 714 MMT. USDA increased its global consumption estimate by 6.87 MMT to a record 707 MMT but left global trade unchanged at 152 MMT. USDA predicts world ending stocks will be 193 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 190 MMT and 5% higher than last year. USDA upped its US production forecast to 55.2 MMT and increased expected U.S. exports to 25.2 MMT.
  • Analytical firm UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2014/15 grain exports by 3% to 32.5 MMT this week due to bigger-than-expected wheat and barley harvests. Ukrainian officials reported wheat and barley exports of 2.7 MMT from July 1 to Aug. 8, up 60% from the same period last year.
  • Russian officials announced the country will increase wheat exports to Egypt and increase imports of other agriculture products from Egypt as of result of sanctions imposed by western countries that prevents the sale of many agricultural goods to Russia. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer.
  • USDA reported weekly export sales of 338,700 metric tons, down 43 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average and below trade expectations of 450,000 to 650,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports for the 2014/15 marketing year, through August 7, 2014 were 10.7 MMT, 24% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 14.1 MMT. USDA forecasts 2013/14 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 25.2 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed 115 points higher than last Friday at 739.
  • The US Dollar Index closed unchanged from last week at 81.46.

File Name
PR 140815.pdf
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