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January 23, 2015
  • Wheat futures largely remained unchanged this week, with conflicting market forces, combined with technical buying and selling, put upward and downward pressure on the markets. Upward pressure came from concerns over renewed hostility in the eastern Ukraine and technical buying. Downward pressure came from beneficial moisture for the southern HRW belt, a plunge in the Canadian dollar, and the euro reaching an eleven year low versus the US dollar. The Chicago closed the week up 1 cent, the Kansas City down 13 cents, and the Minneapolis down 9 cents. Chicago corn closed even with last week at $3.87. Chicago soybeans closed down 19 cents.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring only. Premiums for Dark Northern Spring will vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • The International Grains Commission left its estimate for world wheat production at 717.0 MMT, an all-time record. For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting a record world crop of 723.4 MMT.
  • The euro rose to an eleven year low versus the US dollar following the European Central Bank's announcement of a round of quantitative easing to try and reduce interest levels within the trade bloc.
  • The Canadian dollar dropped sharply versus the US dollar, reaching a six year low, following a surprise interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. The bank is worried that dropping oil prices will slow growth in the Canadian economy.
  • According to the USDA's Export Sales Report, weekly sales of 458.4 TMT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were above trade expectations of 200,000 to 400,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat, through January 8, 2015 were 19.4 MMT, 23% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 25.3 MMT. USDA forecasts 2014/15 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 25.2 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed this week at 685, down sharply from last week at 759.
  • The US Dollar Index closed this week at 94.99, up shaprly from last week at 93.00.

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