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August 8, 2014
  • U.S. futures markets closed mixed this week. Crop quality problems in Europe and Ukraine, which could improve export prospects for U.S. wheat, pushed futures to their highest point in a month on Wednesday. But profit taking following the rally resulted in a sharp decline. The advancing northern hemisphere harvest and expectations for large world supplies continue to weigh on futures markets. Improving yields as the HRW harvest moves farther north also pressured KCBT contracts. CBOT September wheat added 15 cents to $5.49/bu and MGEX gained 3 cents to $6.19/bu. KCBT fell 4 cents to $6.29/bu. CBOT September corn dropped one cent to $3.52/bu and CBOT August soybeans gained 70 cents to $12.85/bu.
  • High U.S. domestic rail values, which have forced HRS and HRW basis sharply higher the last two months, eased this week and took wheat basis lower, too.
  • Nearby SRW basis is stronger this week due to limited elevation capacity.
  • Ukraine's ProAgro consultancy estimates 35% of the country‚Äôs wheat crop could be of feed quality this year, up from 25-30% last year.
  • Russian analyst group IKAR raised its 2014/15 Russian wheat production estimate by 1.0 MMT to 58.5 MMT, which would be the largest crop in six years.
  • Analytical firm Informa Economics increased its 2014/15 U.S. wheat production forecast to 54.1 MMT, above its July estimate of 53.3 MMT. Informa also raised its Russian production estimate by 3.5 MMT to 56.0 MMT.
  • USDA reported the U.S. winter wheat harvest as 90% complete, compared to the five-year average of 85%.
  • According to USDA, weekly commercial wheat sales of 590,900 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 26 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average and just below trade expectations of 600,000 to 800,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports for the 2014/15 marketing year, through July 31, 2014 were 10.3 MMT, 24% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 13.6 MMT. USDA forecasts 2013/14 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 24.5 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed 13 points higher than last Friday at 624.
  • The US Dollar Index closed higher this week at 81.46, up from 81.05 last.

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PR 140808.pdf
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