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May 6, 2016
  • Optimistic U.S. Wheat Quality Council hard red winter (HRW) tour results and a slightly firmer U.S. dollar pressured wheat futures lower this week. A StatsCan report showing Canadian wheat stocks are at a 3-year low lent limited support. Week over week, CBOT and KCBT May wheat each fell 5% and MGEX dipped 2%. CBOT May wheat dropped 25 cents to $4.53/bu, KCBT fell 24 cents to $4.41/bu and MGEX slipped 9 cents to $5.31/bu. CBOT May corn decreased 14 cents to $3.76/bu and CBOT May soybeans added 5 cents on the week to close at $10.26/bu.
  • Farmers in their fields taking advantage of good planting weather limited selling this week, offering some support to basis. However, holidays in several countries limited export demand, which pressured basis.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 178,900 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, which were down 49% from the previous week, but 1% higher than the prior 4-week average. Sales were within trade expectations of 0 to 300,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all wheat classes for marketing year 2015/16, through April 28, 2016, were 20.1 million metric tons (MMT), 13% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 23.1 MMT.
  • As of May 2, 42% of U.S. winter wheat had headed according to USDA, which rated 61% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as good to excellent, up from 59% last week. USDA rated just 7% of the crop as poor or very poor, 1% lower than the prior week and down from 20% last year. USDA reported spring wheat planting at 54% complete compared to the 5-year average of 39%, and 22% of spring wheat had emerged compared to the 5-year average of 14%.
  • Scouts on the annual U.S. Wheat Quality Council HRW Tour pegged production in the top HRW state of Kansas at 382 million bushels (10.4 MMT) compared to 322 million bushels (8.76 MMT) in 2015.
  • By March 31, Canadian wheat stocks had fallen to 13.8 MMT, down from 18.1 MMT on the same date in 2015 and a 3-year low according to a StatsCan survey of 11,500 farms.
  • On May 2, France AgriMer rated 87% of French soft wheat in good or excellent condition compared to 90% at the same time last year.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 642, down 9% from last week’s close of 710.
  • The Dollar Index rose to 93.71, up slightly from 93.18 last Friday.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 160506.pdf
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