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March 10, 2017
  • After a rally on Monday, CBOT and KCBT March wheat futures fell steadily to close lower than last Friday. MGEX started the week lower but recovered Thursday and Friday to finish just one cent lower than last week. CBOT was supported by falling production estimates in Australia and signs of good export demand. KCBT was supported by dry conditions in the U.S. Plains and early emergence of HRW that leaves the crop vulnerable to a cold snap. Markets were pressured by forecasts for much needed rain, abundant global supplies and spillover weakness from corn and soybeans. USDA lowered its forecast for US ending stocks, which supported wheat futures. CBOT March wheat lost 11 cents to $4.23/bu, KCBT dropped 17 cents to $4.45/bu and MGEX fell 1 cent to $5.36/bu. CBOT March corn fell 17 cents to $3.58/bu and CBOT March soybeans dropped 31 cents to $9.96/bu.
  • The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System opens for the season on March 20.
  • The March 2 U.S. Drought Monitor reported dry, windy conditions persisted across the U.S. Plains where wildfires burned 1.4 million acres (567,000 hectares) this week. Temperatures were also 6-12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from South Dakota down to Texas. The 5-day forecast expects storms to largely miss the driest parts of the U.S. Plains, with the coasts receiving the most precipitation.
  • In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA forecast 2016/17 world wheat production at 751 MMT, up 2% from the 2015/16 record of 735 MMT. If realized, it would be 6% above the 5-year average, and the fourth consecutive year of record world wheat production. Global trade will reach 181 MMT, 13% above the 5-year average. Global consumption will set a new record for the fourth consecutive year at 741 MMT. U.S. production totaled 62.9 MMT, up 12% from 2015/16. USDA believes U.S. exports will reach 27.9 MMT, up 32% year over year and 5% above the 5-year average.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net sales of 391,600 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2016/17, which were within trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports through March 2, 2017 were 25.1 million metric tons (MMT), 37% higher than last year's year-to-date total of 18.3 MMT and 8% ahead of the 5-year average. USDA forecasts 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 27.9 MMT.
  • Australian Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics and Rural Sciences (ABARES) forecasts Australia's 2017/18 total wheat production to fall 32% year over year to 24.0 MMT.
  • Farming agency FranceAgriMer increased its forecast for 2016/17 French soft wheat ending stocks for the second month in a row as increased imports and reduced export prospects within the European Union outweighed improving exports elsewhere.
  • The Baltic Index rose to 1,086, up 20% from 904 last week.
  • The Dollar Index fell to 101.26, compared to 101.82 last Friday.

File Name
PR 170310.pdf
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