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October 30, 2015
  • On Monday, CBOT wheat futures climbed to a four-month high with KCBT and MGEX posting smaller gains. Technical selling, concerns about poor establishment of the Black Sea region’s winter wheat, concern about Australia’s crop and better-than-expected weekly export sales lent support and CBOT rose 6%, KCBT climbed 4% and MGEX gained 3% week over week. Abundant world wheat supplies and rains in the U.S. Southern Plains and Midwest limited the rally. CBOT December wheat added 31 cents to close at $5.22/bu, KCBT wheat rose 18 cents to $4.94/bu and MGEX grew 17 cents to $5.25/bu. December CBOT corn rose 2 cents to $3.82/bu and November CBOT soybeans fell 12 cents to $8.84/bu.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • Gulf HRS basis strengthened this week led by domestic purchases. Barge freight to the Gulf softened, but shuttle train freight remains firm with soybeans and corn harvest underway. Discounts for HRS 13% protein from all three ports have disappeared due to the high protein content of the 2015/16 crop. Farmer selling is slow for all classes of wheat. Trade estimates 75% of the 2015/16 crop remains in farmers’ bins.
  • In its Oct. 26 crop progress update, USDA reported winter wheat planting is 83% complete, up from 76% last week, with winter wheat emergence at 62%. Both emergence and planting are on pace with the respective 5-year averages. USDA rated 47% of winter wheat in good or excellent condition compared to 59% last year, while 39% is rated fair and 14% is rated poor or very poor. This week one year prior, just 7% was rated poor or very poor.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report showed net sales for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 of 550,300 MT, the highest level since the week ending on July 30, which is a 54 percent increase from the previous week and up 34 percent from the prior 4-week average and just above trade expectations of 350,000 to 550,000 MT. Total known exports and outstanding sales for delivery in 2015/16 are 12.8 MMT, 16% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 15.1 MMT.
  • The International Grains Council reduced its estimate for 2015/16 world wheat production by 1 MMT to 726 MMT, which is still a record high.
  • New South Wales, Australia’s largest wheat producing state, could receive up to 200 millimeters (7.87 inches) of rain on mature wheat over the next five days, potentially damaging the quality and delaying harvest.
  • CBH Group, an Australian wheat exporter, decreased its estimate of Western Australian wheat production to 13 MMT from 13.5 MMT after the area was hit by fail and frost.
  • The complete U.S. Wheat Associates Crop Quality report is available at
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 728 on Friday, down 7% from 786 last week.
  • The Dollar Index closed at 96.97, down from 97.14 last Friday.

File Name
PR 151030.pdf
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