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January 13, 2012

(See attached file: PR 120113.pdf) (See attached file: PR 120113.xls)
  • Wheat futures traded mixed this week, gaining early in the week but declining sharply Thursday and Friday after the release of USDA’s supply and demand report. Trade was limited on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the report and virtually stopped on Thursday as futures prices fell. On Thursday, CBOT lost 36 cents, KCBT lost 29 cents and MGEX closed 10 cents lower. MGEX wheat faired the best of all nearby contracts to close the week unchanged at $8.01/bu. CBOT lost 23 cents on the week to close at $6.02/bu and KCBT closed at $6.70/bu, a 10 cent loss. The CBOT nearby corn contract closed 44 cents lower than last week at $5.99/bu and CBOT soybeans closed at $11.60, 30 cents lower.
  • USDA released its monthly agricultural supply and demand report on Thursday. World wheat supplies are at a record 891 MMT, more than meeting record global demand of 681 MMT. Global wheat production is also at an all time high of 692 MMT and projected world ending stocks increased 1.5 MMT this month to 210 MMT, which is 5 percent greater than last year and 27 percent higher than the five-year average.
  • Australia's 2011/12 wheat exports are on track to set a record according to the country’s crop bureau Abares. As new crop supplies are poised to enter the market in January, the bureau expects exports to reach 20.9 MMT, beating a 15-year-old record of 19.2 MMT. An unusually large crop in South Australia due to La Nina rains has supported wheat supplies and sales. USDA lowered its Australian production forecast from 21.5 MMT to 21.0 MMT on Thursday.
  • Despite weeks of hot, dry weather, Brazil’s government crop agency increased the country’s wheat production estimate this week. The wheat crop forecast is 5.8 MMT, up from December’s estimate of 5.4. USDA also increased its outlook for Brazilian production this month to match the 5.8 MMT estimate, up from 5.0 MMT in December.
  • The ICE Dollar Index gained this week to close at 81.79, up from 81.60 last week. Gains in wheat prices were limited by the stronger dollar early in the week.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed lower for the fourth straight week due to an oversupply of vessels and economic uncertainty. Tropical weather off the coast of Australia and a slowdown in China also weighed on the index. The index closed at 1,264 on Friday, down from 1,571 last week. Maritime Research’s Grain Freight Index was also lower this week, falling from 569.4 last week to 559.1.

File Name
PR 120113.pdf
PR 120113.xls
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