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March 8, 2013


(See attached file: PR 130308.pdf) (See attached file: PR 130308.xls)

Highlights:
  • All three wheat futures markets closed lower this week, falling to their lowest points since June. Improved soil moisture and a forecast for more precipitation in HRW areas pushed markets lower early in the week. Especially strong export sales and strength in the outside financial markets provided some support but not enough to counteract the downward trend. USDA’s monthly supply and demand estimates didn’t influence markets much on Friday as it delivered very modest changes. The CBOT March contract fell 3 percent to $6.90/bu, a 23 cent loss. The KCBT March fell 18 cents to $7.38/bu and MGEX March closed at $8.06/bu, down 14 cents. CBOT corn dropped 13 cents to $7.12/bu and CBOT soybeans gained 44 cents to $15.09/bu.
  • Ukraine’s agriculture minister announced Wednesday that it will consider lifting restrictions on wheat exports next month. The restrictions were imposed to secure domestic supply after a poor 2012/13 harvest. The government will consider raising the 6.3 MMT export cap if good spring weather boosts the 2013/14 production forecast. The announcement pressured wheat futures on Wednesday.
  • USDA reported total weekly commercial wheat sales of 828,100 MT on Thursday, including 618,100 MT for the 2012/13 marketing year. Sales were up 66 percent from the previous week and far exceeded trade expectations of 350,000 to 550,000 MT. Sales to date are 23.3 MMT, 4 percent lower than last year's year-to-date total of 24.4 MMT. USDA forecasts 2012/13 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 28.6 MMT.
  • USDA released its monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates update on Friday. Total estimated 2012/13 world production increase 1.87 MMT to 655 MMT and world ending stocks increased 1.5 MMT to 178 MMT. Projected US exports fell from 28.6 MMT to 27.9 MMT.
  • The U.S. stock market (Dow Jones) marked record highs this week, regaining the sharp losses suffered during the 2008 financial crisis. Strength in the outside financial markets lent support to all commodity markets mid-week.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index rose from 1,036 to 1124 this week, a new high for this calendar year. Higher activity from South America continues thanks to a strong harvest season. Maritime Research's Grain Freight Index fell this week from 490.2 to 488.1.
  • The US Dollar Index rose this week from 82.36 to 82.73 on Friday.

File Name
PR 130308.pdf
PR 130308.xls
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