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July 22, 2011

(See attached file: PR 110722.pdf)(See attached file: PR 110722.xlsx)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures traded mixed this week as concerns about high-protein wheat supplies pushed Kansas City and Minneapolis futures higher. A weaker dollar also provided support. CBOT wheat fell on the week with increased export competition from the Black Sea region and weakness in the corn market weighing on prices. Overall, the KCBT September contract gained 15 cents on the week, closing at $7.80/bu, while MGEX nearbys gained 14 cents to close at $8.38/bu. The CBOT September contract was down two cents from last week, closing at $6.92/bu. Corn prices fell this week as showers covered some parts of the Midwest, but hot weather late in the week limited losses. The CBOT September corn contract fell by 11 cents from last Friday, closing at $6.90/bu. Soybean prices were also lower with the CBOT August soybean contract down five cents on the week, closing at $13.80/bu.
  • Russian analyst SovEcon boosted its 2011/12 Russian grain export outlook to 18.0 MMT, up 3.0 MMT from its previous estimate. This total includes 16.0 MMT of wheat. SovEcon currently expects Russian wheat production to reach between 55.0 and 58.0 MMT. USDA currently estimates 2011/12 Russian wheat exports at 12.0 MMT and production at 53.0 MMT.
  • India’s farm ministry increased its official 2011/12 Indian wheat output estimate by 1.7 MMT, reaching a record 85.9 MMT. This is up by 5.1 MMT from last year. USDA currently estimates this year’s Indian wheat production at 84.0 MMT.
  • FOB SRW basis out of the Gulf was lower this week due to increased selling and lower barge rates. For nearby delivery, FOB SRW basis fell from $0.80/bu last week to $0.65/bu this week.
  • The ICE Dollar Index was down sharply this week, providing support to commodity prices on Tuesday and Wednesday. The index fell from 75.12 last week and stood at 74.20 on Friday, its lowest point since June 9.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index fell for the second consecutive week, falling from 1,578 last week to 1,535 on Friday. Destination rates were unchanged.

File Name
PR 110722.pdf
PR 110722.xlsx
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