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September 23, 2011

(See attached file: PR 110923.pdf)(See attached file: PR 110923.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures were down sharply this week as a global economic concerns and a surging dollar weighed heavily on markets. The CBOT December contract lost 47 cents from last week, closing at $6.40/bu on Friday. The KCBT December contract was also down sharply, losing 52 cents from a week ago to close at $7.31/bu. Losses in the MGEX nearby contract were limited due to concerns of tight U.S. spring wheat supplies. The MGEX December contract dropped five cents from last week, closing at $8.51/bu. Corn and soybean prices suffered heavy losses this week due to the stronger dollar and macroeconomic concerns. The CBOT nearby corn contract lost 53 cents, closing at $6.38/bu. The January CBOT soybean contract was down 98 cents from a week ago, to $12.69/bu.
  • In its latest production estimates, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2011/12 global wheat production forecast by 2.0 MMT, to 679 MMT. The increase was primarily due to greater production estimates for Russia and Australia, which were both raised by 1.0 MMT to 58.0 MMT and 25.5 MMT, respectively. The IGC also increased its 2011/12 global wheat consumption outlook, by 1.0 MMT to 679 MMT, due to greater anticipated feed use.
  • Analytical firm Informa Economics released its latest 2011/12 U.S. wheat production estimates. The firm pegged total U.S. wheat production at 55.6 MMT, which falls below USDA’s current estimate of 56.5 MMT. Informa currently projects this year’s HRS crop at 12.1 MMT, below USDA’s projection of 12.9 MMT.
  • The Argentine Agriculture Ministry lowered its forecast for 2011/12 Argentine wheat production due to dry weather conditions. The Ministry pegged Argentina’s wheat crop in between 11 and 13 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 14.7 MMT.
  • U.S. wheat export sales reached a four-month high for the week ending September 15, 2011. USDA reported sales at 679.5 TMT, which surpassed trade expectations of 400 to 550 TMT. Increases were reported for Nigeria (208,500 MT), Japan (67,000 MT), the Philippines (63,300 MT), Indonesia (59,000 MT), Sri Lanka (55,000 MT), and Italy (48,100 MT).
  • The dollar surged this week, reaching its highest point since mid-February 2011. The ICE Dollar Index stood at 78.28 on Friday, up from 76.60 a week ago.

File Name
PR 110923.pdf
PR 110923.xls
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