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March 5, 2010

(See attached file: PR 100305.pdf)(See attached file: PR 100305.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures fell to a two-week low this week as ample global supplies continue to pressure prices. CBOT nearbys fell 24 cents on the week, to $4.82/bu. KCBT nearbys were down 18 cents, to $4.93/bu and MGEX fell 13 cents, to $5.03/bu. With a record large soybean harvest in South America progressing, CBOT soy prices fell 16 cents on the week, closing at $9.34/bu. Corn prices were also down, by 13 cents to $3.75/bu.
  • Crop conditions in Texas and Oklahoma have vastly improved over last year. The latest crop progress reports released Monday list the OK crop at 60 percent in either good or excellent condition, up from 23 percent a year ago. The Texas crop currently stands at 46 percent in good or excellent condition, up from 10 percent last year.
  • The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) released their latest 2010/11 production estimates, forecasting Australian production at 21.9 MMT. This is a 1 percent increase over their 2009/10 production estimate of 21.7 MMT. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, however, projects lower output in 2010/11, projecting a 7 percent decrease at 20.0 MMT.
  • Lower-than-expected commercial sales weighed down prices on Thursday. Commercial sales for the week ending February 25 came in at 101,600 metric tons, down 73 percent from the previous week and well below trade estimates of 300,000 to 450,000 MT. Increases were reported for Morocco (75,361 HRW), Venezuela (11,500 HRW, 15,000 HRS), Nigeria (750 HRW, 10,000 HRS, 10,000 SRW), the Dominican Republic (2,984 HRW, 335 HRS, 1,409 SRW), and Israel (4,016 HRW). Net sales of 2,500 MT were reported for delivery in 2010/11, all for Mexico (2,500 SRW).
  • The advancing soybean harvest in South America has increased freight demand, pushing the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) up 18 percent on the week. The BPI closed Friday at 4,003, its highest point since early January. Destination routes were also higher, with Gulf/Japan gaining at $70/mt and PNW/Japan at $40/mt.
  • A steep drop in the ICE Dollar Index contributed to a 2 percent gain in futures prices on Wednesday. The dollar rebounded on Thursday, however, and finished slightly higher on the week. The index was at 80.43 on Friday, compared to 80.38 a week ago.

File Name
PR 100305.pdf
PR 100305.xls
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