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May 1, 2009

(See attached file: PR 090501.xls.pdf) (See attached file: PR 090501.xls)

  • Nearby futures rallied 20 to 31 cents/bu on Friday to push wheat into positive territory after trading flat to slightly lower most of the week. The surge was due primarily to a short-covering rally fueled by technical indicators as well as start of the month fund buying. A weak dollar also helped support wheat prices. For the week, nearby CBOT wheat futures finished 25 cents/bu higher, KCBT was up 21 cents/bu and MGE ended 30 cents/bu higher at $6.95/bushel. Soybeans closed the week up 62 cents/bu at $11.02/bushel while corn finished 30 cents/bu higher at $3.77/bushel.
  • Spring wheat planting was 15 percent complete, well behind the five-year average of 36 percent. Continued wet weather in the northern Plains has been supportive because seeding delays could translate into fewer planted acres and lower yields. The market was expecting that at least 20 percent of the crop would be in the ground by this date.
  • USDA reported that 45 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent condition, up slightly from 43 percent the previous week. HRW crops in Texas and Oklahoma continue to struggle this week with 60 percent and 74 percent rated poor to very poor.
  • International Grains Council lowered its estimate for US wheat production by 800,000 metric tons (MT) to 58.7 MMT due to delayed spring wheat planting and adverse weather conditions in the southern Plains. IGC expects global ending stocks to increase 9 MMT by the end of 2009/10 to 171 MMT.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain exchange placed new crop Argentina wheat plantings at just 3.7 million hectares (9.1 million acres), down 20 percent from last year, and the lowest level since the exchange started recording data in 1910. The exchange cites weather and political conflict between the government and farmers for the massive decline in prospective planting.
  • Freight indices were lower this week with the Baltic Panamax index ending down 6 percent at 1,556. The Atlantic/Gulf to Asia component of the BPI was unchanged at 20,407 while the Pacific/Asia component was 22 percent lower at 10,741. Destination rates were also lower with Gulf/Japan down $1/MT and PNW/Japan off $4/MT to $21/MT.

File Name
PR 090501.xls.pdf
PR 090501.xls
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