USW of FacebookUSW on TwitterUSW on YouTube
March 4, 2011

(See attached file: PR 110304.pdf)(See attached file: PR 110304.xls)

  • Futures prices were higher this week as dry weather in the U.S. Plains and spillover from gains in row crops supported prices. A weaker dollar also provided support. The CBOT nearby contract gained 24 cents this week, closing at $8.00/bu. The KCBT March contract gained 30 cents, to $9.18/bu, while MGEX nearbys gained 37 cents, to $9.53/bu. Soybean prices made strong gains this week as rain slowed the Brazilian soybean harvest. Rumors that China may lower import tariffs on soybeans and gains in crude oil also provided support. The CBOT March soybean contract gained 42 cents on the week, closing at $14.07/bu. Strong export sales, which surpassed 1.0 MMT for the fifth straight week, helped corn prices close higher, which were up nine cents from last week and closed at $7.21/bu.
  • The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index reached a new record high in February, reaching 236 points. The index climbed 2.2 percent from January’s level and has increased for eight consecutive months. FAO’s cereal price index, which includes wheat, rice, and corn, reached 254 points in February, its highest point since July 2008.
  • The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released their preliminary projections for 2011/12 Australian wheat production, which they projected at 24.3 MMT. This would be an eight percent decline from their 2010/11 production estimate of 26.3 MMT. ABARES pegged Australian wheat exports for 2011/12 at 16.5 MMT, up slightly from their 2010/11 estimate of 16.2 MMT.
  • The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) released its preliminary wheat production forecast for 2011/12. The CWB pegged Canadian production at 23.8 MMT, up slightly from this year’s estimated 23.2 MMT. The CWB currently projects 2011/12 global wheat production at 654 MMT, up from this year’s 648 MMT but sharply lower than the International Grains Council’s current 2011/12 projection of 672 MMT.
  • A mixture of rain and snow this week helped alleviate concerns over the dry conditions in China’s major wheat-producing areas. The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture reduced their estimate of wheat area affected by drought, lowering the estimated area from 5.7 million hectares to 2.4 million hectares.
  • Russia is considering an extension of their grain export ban through the remainder of the calendar year. The ban is currently set to expire on July 1. The Russian government said it will wait to make a decision on extending the ban until the production potential of this year’s harvest becomes clearer.
  • Grain shipments from Argentina have been delayed as dock workers resumed a wage protest this week. The protest began in the Rosario area, a major soybean export facility, but workers in the wheat export ports of Bahia Blanca and Quequen also began protesting on Friday.
  • Dry weather in the Great Plains continues to threaten this year’s hard red winter crop. Kansas reported that 28 percent of the HRW crop is in either good to excellent condition, the lowest rating since 2002. Oklahoma reported that 42 percent of the HRW crop was in either poor or very poor condition, up from 40 percent last month. Texas ratings also declined from last month, with 56 percent of the crop rated in either poor or very poor condition, compared to 52 percent in January.
  • FOB premiums for spring wheat were higher this week due to tight supplies and higher rail rates. The FOB premium for HRS 13.5 out of the Gulf climbed to $2.35/bu, up $0.15/bu from last week.
  • The ICE Dollar Index was weaker this week, providing support to prices. The index stood at 76.38 on Friday, down from 76.88 a week ago and at its lowest point since early November of last year.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index was higher this week, closing at 1,983, a nine percent gain from last week’s close. Destination routes were also higher, with Gulf/Japan up $3/mt, to $57/mt and PNW/Japan up $2, to $34/mt.

File Name
PR 110304.pdf
PR 110304.xls
2008-2013 U.S. Wheat Associates. All Rights Reserved
CCBot/2.0 ( - Is Mobile: Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Statementfalse