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October 9, 2015
  • Wheat futures closed mixed this week after hitting an eight-week high mid-week. Dry conditions in Russia, the Black Sea and parts of the Southern Plains pushed wheat higher early in the week, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. The markets were unsurprised by USDA’s 2.23 MT decline in U.S. production estimates in this month’s WASDE, which was in line with the Sept. 30 Small Grains report. However, EU, Australian and Canadian production estimate increases limited gains. CBOT December wheat lost 4 cents on the week to end at $5.09/bu. KCBT closed flat at $5.00/bu and MGEX increased 2 cents to $5.30/bu. December CBOT corn fell 6 cents to $3.83/bu and October CBOT soybeans rose 11 cents to $8.86/bu.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • Basis, especially for HRW, continues to soften for both ports as tender results reflected uncompetitive U.S. wheat prices in the global market.
  • In its Oct. 5 crop progress update, USDA reported winter wheat planting is 49% complete, slightly behind the 5-year average of 51%, with winter wheat emergence at 20%.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report showed net sales of 288,200 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, were up noticeably from the previous week, up 12% from the prior 4-week average and within trade expectations of 175,000 to 375,000 MT. Total known exports and outstanding sales for delivery in 2015/16 are 11.4 MMT, 18% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 13.9 MMT.
  • Hard red spring and hard red winter nearby prices are 23% and 21% lower on average, than this time last year or an average $74/MT and $55/MT lower, respectively. Soft red winter nearby prices are down 11% or $25/MT, and soft white ordinary protein nearby prices are 17% or $44/MT less than this week last year.
  • USDA increased global wheat production estimates to a record 733 MMT. In spite of the El Nino effects, satellite imagery supported a 1.0 MMT increase in Australian wheat production to 27 MMT and a corresponding 0.5 MMT increase in exports to 19 MMT. USDA also raised Ukraine wheat exports 1.5 MMT to 15 MMT, up 33% from 2014. U.S. export estimates decreased to 23.1 MMT, down 6% from September’s estimate.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 809 on Friday, a 9% decrease from 889 last week.
  • The US Dollar Index closed at 94.88, down 1% from 95.89 last Friday.

File Name
PR 151009.pdf
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