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June 13, 2014
  • U.S. wheat futures fell sharply again this week as plentiful global supplies and strong export competition continue to weigh on markets. Updated supply and demand estimates from USDA pushed markets lower as increased world production and supply overshadowed lower U.S. production. Spillover weakness from corn and a stronger U.S. dollar index also pressured wheat. Reports of low harvest yields in Oklahoma provided some support to HRW contracts. CBOT July wheat fell 32 cents to $5.86/bu and dropped below $6.00/bu for the first time since February 28. MGEX July lost 25 cents to close at $6.84/bu and KCBT fell 22 cents to $7.13/bu. CBOT July corn dropped 12 cents to $4.47/bu and CBOT July soybeans closed 31 cents lower at $14.26/bu.
  • USDA released its monthly WASDE update on Wednesday, increasing expected 2014/15 global production by 4.58 MMT to 702 MMT and lowering its US production forecast by 580,000 MT to 52.9 MMT. Higher expected world consumption (699 MMT) did not offset the higher production forecast and estimated global ending stocks increased 1.19 MMT to 189 MMT.
  • In a monthly crop production report released Wednesday, USDA reduced its forecast for 2014/15 U.S. winter wheat production by 2% to 37.6 MMT, including a 3% cut in HRW production to 19.6 MMT. USDA also reduced expected winter white wheat production by 1% to 5.6 MMT and upped the SRW forecast by 2% to 12.4 MMT.
  • Harvest progress is behind the five-year average in every southern winter wheat state, according to USDA. As of June 8, 9% of total winter wheat acreage had been harvested, compared to 12% on average. Only four states have started harvesting compared to nine states that were harvesting by June 8 on average the last five years.
  • In its weekly export sales report, USDA reported net sales for the 2014/2015 marketing year, which began June 1, of 570,100 metric tons, which were above trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat through June 5, 2014 were 6.53 MMT, 12% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 7.41 MMT. USDA forecasts 2013/14 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 25.2 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index fell from 727 last week to 582.
  • The US Dollar Index closed higher this week, up from 80.43 last Friday to 80.65.

File Name
PR 140613.pdf
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