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August 16, 2013


(See attached file: PR 130816.pdf) (See attached file: PR 130816.xls)

Highlights:
  • U.S. wheat futures closed mixed this week following supply and demand reports from several major exporters. Wheat futures found spillover support on Monday when USDA showed soybean and corn production below analysts’ expectations. Wheat followed corn lower on Tuesday. Plentiful global wheat supplies and slow U.S. export sales pressured deferred month contracts later in the week. CBOT September wheat fell 3 cents to $6.31/bu. KCBT closed one cent higher at $6.98/bu and MGEX added 4 cents to $7.37/bu. CBOT September corn gained 1 cent to $4.74/bu and CBOT September soybeans closed 65 cents higher at $12.83.
  • In its monthly world agricultural supply and demand update, USDA increased projected world wheat production from 698 MMT to 705 MMT. USDA increased estimated consumption by 6.9 MMT to 707 MMT. If realized, production and consumption would exceed the previous records of 697 MMT and 688 MMT, respectively set in 2011/12. USDA increased the total world trade estimate by 5.9 MMT to 154 MMT. The U.S. wheat export estimate increased from 29.2 MMT to 29.9 MMT. Both the corn and soybean production estimates fell below analysts’ expectations.
  • USDA reported weekly commercial sales of 490,100 MT on Thursday, below trade expectations of 550,000 to 750,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2013/14 marketing year, through August 8, 2013 were 14.1 million metric tons (MMT), 41 percent greater than last year's year-to-date total of 9.98 MMT. USDA forecasts 2013/14 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 29.9 MMT.
  • Wheat harvest is underway in the EU and reports indicate good yields in most producer countries. European analyst Strategie Grains increased its 2013/14 EU wheat production forecast this week by 800,000 metric tons to 134.2 MMT. An increase in estimated animal feed use accounted for most of the 600,000 metric tons increase in expected consumption to 114.7 MMT.
  • French farm office FranceAgriMer increased the country’s 2013/14 production forecast from the initial outlook of 35.9 MMT to 36.0 MMT. France produced 35.6 MMT of wheat in 2012/13.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index fell for the fourth consecutive week, down 25 points to 923. Slow summer demand across industries weighed on the index. Maritime Research's Grain Freight Index increased from 488.0 to 489.3.
  • The US Dollar Index increased slightly from 81.16 last Friday to 81.29.

File Name
PR 130816.pdf
PR 130816.xls
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