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November 30, 2012


(See attached file: PR 121130.pdf) (See attached file: PR 121130.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures closed mixed this week. Forecasts for continued dry weather in the U.S. plains combined with a poor winter crop report pushed markets higher early in the week. Profit taking following seven consecutive positive trading sessions and discouraging U.S. commercial sales pressured futures later in the week. Higher than expected deliveries on the expiring December contracts added pressure on Friday. KCBT December contract closed at $8.78/bu, up 20 cents from last Friday (up 22 cents from the prior US Wheat report.) MGEX December wheat gained 6 cents to $9.19/bu (up 9 cents from the prior report.) CBOT December wheat lost 2 cents on the week to close at $8.45/bu, which is 7 cents higher than the last US wheat report. CBOT December corn is up 21 cents from 2 weeks ago at $7.48/bu and CBOT January Soybeans gained 56 cents in two weeks to close at $14.39/bu on Friday.
  • In its weekly crop progress report, USDA lowered the percentage of the winter wheat crop rated good or excellent from 34 percent to 33 percent, the lowest ever for the month of November. The percentage rated poor or very poor increased 2 percent to 26 percent, compared to just 13 percent this time last year.
  • US commercial sales of 279,300 MT fell far below trade expectations of 400,000 to 500,000 MT this week. Sales to date of all classes of wheat for the 2012/13 marketing year, through November 22, 2012 were 16.1 million metric tons (MMT), 10 percent lower than last year's year-to-date total of 17.9 MMT.
  • In its monthly report released Thursday, IGC cut its forecast for the 2012/13 global wheat crop by 1.0 MMT to 654 MMT due to production woes in Australia and the EU. It also lowered estimated consumption by 1MMT to 678 MMT. IGC increased its world trade estimate by 2.0 MMT to 134 MMT and increased expected carryout stocks by 1MMT to 173 MMT, down 23 MMT from 2011/12. Carryout stocks remains at 50 MMT in the 8 major exporters, compared to 70 MMT last year.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index gaining 114 points in two weeks to close Friday at 980. Pre-winter shipments of coal particularly supported the index. Maritime Research's Grain Freight Index fell 1.7 points to end at 502.3.
  • The US Dollar Index fell 1.15 points in two weeks to close at 81.31 on Friday.

File Name
PR 121130.pdf
PR 121130.xls
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