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November 13, 2009

(See attached file: PR 091113.pdf)(See attached file: PR 091113.xls)

Highlights:
  • Fund buying and a weaker dollar continued to be the driving forces behind wheat prices, as prices climbed higher on the week despite a bearish WASDE report released by USDA. CBOT nearbys were up 41 cents this week, closing at $5.39/bu. KCBT December contracts were up 39 cents, to $5.40/bu, while MGEX nearbys were up 37 cents to $5.55/bu. Corn and Soybeans also had significant gains, with corn up 23 cents to $3.90/bu and beans up 32 cents, to $9.87/bu.
  • The USDA released their November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Tuesday. USDA’s latest global wheat production estimate increased to 672 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 3.8 MMT from last month’s projection. Greater production in the Black Sea region (Kazakhstan, Russian, and Ukraine) was primarily responsible for the increased estimate.
  • Winter wheat planting made steady progress as favorable weather conditions persisted. In Illinois, wheat planting was 63% complete as of November 8, compared to 35% the previous week. Total winter wheat planting is 86% complete, up from 79% last week.
  • India imported wheat for the first time in over two years due to rising local prices and concerns that this year’s poor monsoon will decrease production next year. Local prices are approximately 30% above import prices. India is the second largest wheat producing country behind China.
  • Export sales reached 412,200 metric tons, up 45 percent from the previous week. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (124,750 HRW, 29,642 HRS, 14,500 white, -11,450 durum), Nigeria (37,262 HRW, 7,880 HRS, -869 SRW, 10,000 white), Tunisia (34,466 durum), Dominican Republic (14,174 HRW, 3,585 HRS, 15,100 SRW), Egypt (32,000 HRS), South Korea (5,750 HRW, 6,250 HRS, 100 SRW, 12,350 white), Venezuela (10,000 HRW, 6,000 HRS, 5,000 SRW), Morocco (17,000 HRW), and Mexico (11,645 HRW, -27 HRS, 2,144 SRW).
  • The Baltic Panamax Index surged to a new 2009 high, closing at 3,877 on Thursday. This is up from 3,556 last week. Increased Chinese demand for iron ore and coal, along with congestion at Chinese ports, is the primary factor driving the index up. Destination routes were also higher, with Gulf/Japan at $71/mt and PNW/Japan at $42/mt.
  • The U.S. dollar continued to soften this week. The ICE dollar index reached a 15-month low earlier in the week, and stood at 75.24 on Friday, down from 75.80 last week.

File Name
PR 091113.pdf
PR 091113.xls
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