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April 21, 2017
  • Pressured by improving soil moisture conditions and a forecast for more rain next week, KCBT and CBOT wheat futures closed the week sharply lower, while MGEX ended the week flat. Strong old crop export demand and a weaker U.S. dollar lent limited support. CBOT May wheat fell 25 cents to $4.05/bu, KCBT dropped 23 cents to $4.04/bu and MGEX closed flat at $5.26/bu. CBOT May corn lost 14 cents to $3.57/bu and CBOT May soybeans dipped 4 cents to $9.51/bu.
  • Strong export demand and slow farmer sales supported export basis across the United States this week.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 414,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were within trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through April 13, 2017, were 27.6 million metric tons (MMT), 41% higher than a total of 19.6 MMT last year on this date, and 10% above the 5-year average. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
  • On April 17, USDA rated 54% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up 1 percentage point from last week; 13% of winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported 19% of winter wheat had headed, compared to the 5-year average of 13%. Spring wheat planting is 13% complete, behind the 5-year average pace of 21% according to USDA data.
  • The April 20 U.S. Drought Monitor reported above average precipitation fell across the hard red winter (HRW) growing area for the second week in a row, improving soil moisture conditions and boosting yield potential. Drought conditions continue to expand for soft red winter (SRW) production in the Southeastern United States where 44% of the area is currently experiencing moderate to severe drought. It was generally dry across the U.S. Northern Plains, allowing farmers to begin spring planting.
  • According to Reuters, Ukrainian spring wheat planting is 92% complete, up from 76% complete last week.
  • FranceAgriMer rated 89% of French common wheat in good or excellent condition, down from 90% the prior week and 92% last year. The growing region needs rain within the next two weeks to maintain yield potential.
  • StatsCan reported total Canadian planted wheat area will remain stable year over year at 23.2 million acres (9.39 million hectares). An 8% increase in expected spring wheat planted area offset decreases in both durum and winter wheat area. StatsCan expects Canadian farmers to plant 16.7 million acres (6.76 million hectares) of spring wheat, 5.14 million acres (2.08 million hectares) of durum and 1.37 million acres (555,000 hectares) of winter wheat in 2017/18.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Bolsa de Cereales forecast 2017/18 Argentine wheat production at 17.5 MMT, up 7% from 2016/17 due to an expected 17% increase in planted wheat area.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 1243, down 3% from 1282 last week.
  • The Dollar Index decreased to 99.92, down 1% from last Friday’s close of 100.54.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170421.pdf
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