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November 6, 2015
  • For the first time since August 2010, the CBOT-MGEX spread closed at a premium supported by tighter supplies of milling quality soft wheat due to smaller 2015/16 soft red winter (SRW) and soft white (SW) crops and quality concerns in the SRW crop contrasted by the exceptional quality and quantity of this year’s hard red spring (HRS) crop. Slow U.S. export sales, ample global supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar limited the KCBT rally and pressured MGEX lower on the week. CBOT December wheat rose 10 cents to $5.25/bu, KCBT added 2 cents to close at $4.90/bu and MGEX fell 1 cent week over week to $5.19/bu. CBOT December corn lost 9 cents to $3.73/bu and CBOT November soybeans dropped 12 cents to $8.71/bu.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • Slow export business, a lack of public tenders and limited farmer sales left the market largely undefined this week. Consequently, changes in basis levels were driven by changes in the wheat futures markets in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis.
  • According to USDA’s Nov. 2 weekly crop progress report, winter wheat planting in the United States is 88% complete with 72% emergence, on pace with the 5-year averages. USDA estimates 49% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, compared to 59% last year, while 39% is fair and 12% is in poor or very poor condition, up from 7% last year.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 84,600 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were down 85% from the previous week, and 80% from the prior 4-week average and below trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2015/16 marketing year, through October 29, 2015 were 12.8 million metric tons (MMT), 17% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 15.4 MMT.
  • Parts of Ukraine’s wheat producing region are experiencing the driest fall in 50 years.
  • Up to 4 inches (100 mm) of rain is expected to fall on Australia’s New South Wales, where wheat harvest is underway.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 640 on Friday, down 12% from 728 last week and the lowest level since June.
  • The Dollar Index closed at 99.18, up 2% from 96.97 last Friday.

File Name
PR 151106.pdf
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