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January 16, 2009

(See attached file: PR 090116.pdf) (See attached file: PR 090116.xlsx)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures fell this week with nearby contracts nearly closing limit-down on Monday due to bearish ending stocks data from the USDA. For the week, nearby contracts at the CBOT fell 51 cents/bu, the KCBT fell by 42 cents/bu and the MGE finished down 28 cents/bu. Corn lost 20 cents/bu this week while soybeans fell 16 cents/bu.
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture surprised the market with larger then expected Dec 1 wheat stocks of 1.4 billion bushels, up 26 percent from last year and well above trade estimates of 1.3 billion bushels. As a result, USDA lowered its estimate for 2008/09 feed and residual use 30 million bushels and raised U.S. ending stocks 32 million bushels in the January WASDE.
  • The USDA reported a significant drop in U.S winter wheat acres amid delayed row crop harvest and lower prices. The USDA pegged all winter wheat plantings at 42 million acres, down nine percent from the previous year. SRW plantings declined 26 percent from last year at 8.3 million acres while HRW acres were pegged at 30 million acres, down four percent compared with last year.
  • Argentina‚Äôs government confirmed that it has approved an additional 1.2 MMT of wheat for export sales. Exports for the season will be limited due to significantly smaller production and stocks.
  • Commercial sales of 97,900 metric tons were up from last week but 60 percent lower than the previous 4-week average and well below trade estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 metric tons. SRW saw net cancellations for the second week in a row, but this time for a larger total of 96,800 metric tons mostly from Egypt and unknown destinations. Cumulative sales stand at 80.5 percent of the USDA forecast compared with the 5-year average of 82.2 percent.
  • Freight rates moved lower this week with the Baltic Panamax Index ending 7 percent lower at 496. The P3A Pacific/Asia route ended the week down 8 percent at a record low 1854.

File Name
PR 090116.pdf
PR 090116.xlsx
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