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August 11, 2017
  • Seasonal harvest pressure and a lack of new information on abandoned hard red spring (HRS) acres drove down MGEX futures this week, while large crops in Russia and Ukraine weighed heavily on CBOT and KCBT. Strong export demand lent limited support. CBOT September wheat fell 42 cents to $4.39/bu, KCBT lost 40 cents to $4.411/bu and MGEX plummeted 66 cents to $6.74/bu. CBOT September corn dropped 6 cents to $3.61/bu and CBOT September soybeans declined 14 cents to $9.38/bu.
  • Due to last year’s normal protein hard red spring (HRS) crop and this year’s expected high protein crop, export basis for NS/DNS HRS is now being shown for 13.5%, 14.0% and 14.5% protein (12% moisture basis) for all ports. Consequently, weekly change data are unavailable this week and will be available next week.
  • The wheat futures decline increased buyer interest, supporting export basis across the United States this week. Export basis for October, November and December shipment are sharply higher than nearby contracts due to increased demand for freight during corn and soybean harvest.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 464,300 (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were above trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through Aug. 3, 2017, were 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) 2% behind last year’s total on this date, and 3% behind the 5-year average. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • On August 7, USDA reported winter wheat harvest is 94% complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace of 92%. USDA rated 32% of the spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition compared to 31% last week; 43% of spring wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported spring wheat harvest is 24% complete, ahead of the 5-year average of 21%.
  • The August 8 U.S. Drought Monitor reported heavy rain fell across most of the United States. Rain across the U.S. Northern Plains brought a little relief to later maturing wheat, but delayed harvest in the most drought-stricken areas. Hot, dry weather across the Pacific Northwest (PNW) benefited winter wheat harvest, but expanded abnormally dry conditions to most of the wheat-producing region.
  • In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates update, USDA increased world beginning stocks to 259 MMT, up 6% year over year. World wheat production is expected to decline 2% to an estimated 743 MMT. Global trade will slip slightly to 180 MMT and global consumption will reach a record 737 MMT in in 2017/18. U.S. production will fall to an estimated 47.3 MMT, down 25% year over year, if realized. U.S. beginning stocks will climb to a projected 32.2 MMT, up 21% from 2016/17 and the largest beginning stocks since 1988/89, if realized. USDA left the U.S. wheat export projection unchanged at 26.5 MMT.
  • FranceAgriMer reported French wheat harvest is 97% complete, up from 91% the prior week and ahead of the 5-year average.
  • The Saskatchewan weekly crop report reported winter wheat harvest is 31% complete, behind last year’s pace of 35% complete. Topsoil moisture conditions improved slightly due to rain last week. Currently, 62% is rated as short or very short down from 70% last week. In Alberta, 59% of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the prior week, and winter wheat harvest is 66% complete.
  • Reuters reported Ukraine’s wheat harvest is 95% complete. As of August 11, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 25.3 MMT of wheat with an average yield of 59.8 bu/acre (4.02 MT/hectare), compared to 55.6 bu/acre (3.74 MT/hectare) last year.
  • The Russian Agricultural Ministry stated wheat harvest there is 39% complete, up from 31% the prior week. Russian farmers have harvested 47.0 MMT thus far with an average yield of 64.9 bu/acre (4.36 MT/hectare).
  • As of August 10, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported wheat planting in Argentina was 98% complete, which is ahead of last year’s pace. Bolsa estimates Argentine wheat planted area will total 13.3 million acres (5.4 million hectares).
  • The Baltic Index rose to 1092, up 7% from the prior week’s close of 1023.
  • The Dollar Index fell to 93.05 from last Friday’s close of 93.54.

File Name
PR 170811.pdf
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