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July 13, 2007

(See attached file: PR070713.xls)(See attached file: PR070713.pdf)

Highlights
  • Futures are supported by very strong exports and bullish production estimates from USDA. For the week, CBOT September futures climbed 11 cents/bu, the KCBT is up 10 cents/bu and the MGE rose 11 cents/bu. Corn futures were up 7 cents/bu this week.
  • USDA released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates yesterday. Large production increases in China and Pakistan are not expected to impact world trade while production declines in the EU-27, Canada, U.S. and Black Sea region - every major exporter in the Northern Hemisphere - indicate very short export supplies through the near term. U.S. HRW production was revised down 7%, nearly 2 MMT from last month's estimate. Conditions in the Northern Plains are still favorable, leading to HRS production forecast up by 9% despite lower planted acreage.
  • This week's Commercial Sales report showed nearly 1.2 MMT of sales, driven by Egyptian demand. SRW bookings are currently up 154% from last year. The NASS Crop Production report increased the forecast for SRW production by 7%. With the SRW harvest nearly complete, sampling reports indicate an exceptionally high quality crop. International competition against SRW looks very thin with production off in Canada and the Black Sea, and the EU fighting a strong euro as well as their own production problems.
  • Ocean freight rates seemed to be leveling this week, but took off again yesterday. Every increase brings a new record with rates in both the Atlantic and Pacific $2/MT higher than last week. In the last month rates have increased by $20/MT.
  • The dollar continues to plummet, setting record lows against the euro, the Australian dollar and approaching a new record low against the Canadian dollar.

USDA WASDE:
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

USW Commercial Sales Report:
http://www.uswheat.org/commercialSales/doc/82E88DE607267FA485257316004B1FFD?OpenDocument#

NASS Crop Production Report:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-07-12-2007.pdf

USW Harvest Report:
http://www.uswheat.org/harvestReports/doc/EAB020995824D101852573170057A807?OpenDocument#

File Name
PR070713.xls
PR070713.pdf
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