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April 28, 2017
  • Snow, cold temperatures and planting delays supported wheat futures this week. A weaker U.S. dollar lent additional support. CBOT added 13 cents to $4.18/bu, KCBT grew 20 cents to $4.25/bu and MGEX climbed 14 cents to $5.41/bu. CBOT May corn increased 1 cent to $3.58/bu and CBOT May soybeans fell 6 cents to $9.45/bu.
  • This week weather is impacting both the futures markets and export basis. Export basis for soft white (SW), hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS) firmed this week supported by slow farmer selling and weather news. Soft red winter (SRW) export basis was unchanged.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 61,700 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were below trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through April 20, 2017, were 27.7 million metric tons (MMT), 39% higher than a total of 20.0 MMT last year on this date, and 9% above the 5-year average. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
  • On April 24, USDA rated 54% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition unchanged from last week; 13% of winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported 32% of winter wheat had headed, compared to the 5-year average of 23%. Spring wheat planting is 22% complete, up from 13% last week but behind the 5-year average pace of 34% according to USDA data. Spring wheat emergence is 5% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 8%.
  • The April 27 U.S. Drought Monitor reported widespread rain and wet snow fell across the U.S. Plains. The precipitation eased drought conditions in the Southern Plains where some flooding occurred, and delayed spring wheat planting in the Northern Plains. The snow was accompanied by near freezing temperatures in Kansas and Nebraska. Additional snow and cold temperatures forecast for this weekend are raising concerns about possible damage to the U.S. HRW crop. Although some rain fell across soft red winter (SRW) production areas in the Southeastern United States, 36% of the area is still currently experiencing moderate to severe drought. Well above normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is causing some planting delays as farmers wait for fields to dry out.
  • According to Reuters, Ukrainian spring wheat planting is 92% complete, unchanged from the prior week at 405,000 acres (164,000 hectares).
  • FranceAgriMer rated 78% of French common wheat in good or excellent condition, down from 85% the prior week and 88% last year. The growing region needs rain soon to maintain yield potential. France typically receives 2 to 5 inches (5 to 13 cm) or precipitation in April; so far this month, most of France received less than half an inch (2 cm) of rain.
  • The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its forecast for 2017/18 world wheat production to 736 MMT by 1 MMT from its March forecast. If realized, it would be the first year over year drop in production in 5 years, and 2% below 2016/17.
  • The U.S. Hard Winter Wheat Tour starts on Monday, May 1. Follow the tour on Twitter using hashtag #WheatTour17.
  • Ocean freight values to Nigeria were corrected this week based on updated fixture information.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 1134, down 9% from 1243 last week.
  • The Dollar Index decreased to 98.98, down 1% from last Friday’s close of 99.92.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR170428.pdf
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