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August 5, 2016
  • Supported by short-covering and growing concern about wheat quality in the European Union, wheat futures closed the week higher. U.S. harvest pressure and a stronger U.S. dollar limited gains. CBOT September wheat added 8 cents to $4.16/bu, KCBT grew 2 cents to $4.12/bu and MGEX climbed 7 cents to $4.95/bu. CBOT September corn fell 10 cents to $3.24/bu and CBOT September soybeans dropped 32 cents to $9.88/bu.
  • Farmers continue to choose storage over selling, supporting basis as exporters try to meet export demand. Rail freight demand increased due to continued competition from corn and soybeans, also supporting basis across the United States. Basis levels for the Pacific Northwest are firmer for the last quarter of 2016 due to planned maintenance closures on the Columbia and Snake River system. Fourth quarter basis for the Gulf and Lakes remains strong because corn and soybeans are competing for elevation and shuttle train capacity.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 326,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were slightly below trade expectations of 350,000 to 650,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17 — through July 28, 2016 — were 10.1 million metric tons (MMT), 18% higher than a total of 8.52 MMT last year on this date. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 25.2 MMT.
  • As of July 31, U.S. winter wheat harvest is 89% complete, ahead of the 5-year average pace of 86% complete on the same date. USDA rated 68% of the spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last week. U.S. spring wheat harvest is 10% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 9%.
  • FranceAgriMer estimated French harvest at 62% complete compared to 82% on the same date last year, and rated 35% of French soft wheat in good or excellent condition, down from 40% the prior week. FranceAgriMer lowered its estimate for French wheat production to a 30-year low of 29.1 MMT, down 29% year over year, if realized.
  • Wheat harvest in Germany began mid-July, but rain continues to delay progress according to the German Farmers’ Association (DBV), which reported German harvest at 33% complete on Aug. 3.
  • The Baltic Index dropped to 636, 3% lower than last week’s close of 656.
  • The Dollar Index rose to 96.18, up 1% from 95.53 last Friday.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

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