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May 14, 2010

(See attached file: PR 100514.pdf)(See attached file: PR 100514.xls)
  • Wheat futures dropped sharply this week as favorable growing conditions and a firm dollar pressured prices. The CBOT May contract lost nearly 4 percent on Monday, seeing its largest decline in three weeks. Prices continued to fall on Thursday and Friday and lost a combined total of 37 cents on the week, closing at $4.63/bu. The KCBT May contract was down 28 cents from last week, closing at $4.84/bu. MGEX closed at $5.07/bu, down 22 cents from a week ago. Corn prices received support from Chinese purchases and USDA’s 2009/10 ending stocks projection, which was lower than trade estimates. However, prices finished lower on the week due to prospects of a large crop in 2010/11and a firm dollar. CBOT corn contract lost 8 cents, to $3.56/bu. Soy fell 3 cents, to $9.48/bu.
  • USDA released their preliminary forecasts for the 2010/11 marketing year this week. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report pegged 2010/11 wheat production at 672 MMT, down 8.0 MMT from 2009/10, but still the third largest crop on record. USDA projects global ending stocks at 198 MMT, the largest since 2001/02.
  • The French analyst Strategie Grains released its monthly crop estimates, reducing its 2010/11 EU wheat production estimate by 1.2 MMT. Strategie Grains lowered its projection for both France and Germany, the EU’s two largest wheat producers, due to poor weather conditions. The current 2010/11 estimate stands at 133 MMT, which is up from 130 MMT in 2009/10.
  • Statistics Canada reported Canadian durum stocks at 4.6 MMT as of March 31, a 23 percent increase from the same time last year and the second highest total in the past 30 years, following only 5.2 MMT in 2006. The agency reported wheat excluding durum at 11.1 MMT, a 12 percent decrease from last year.
  • The SRW/corn spread narrowed by 29 cents this week, to 1.07/bu. This is the narrowest the spread has been since late March.
  • The dollar continued to make steady gains this week as the ICE Dollar Index climbed to a new one-year high at 86.16. Continued worries over the Greek debt crisis have given the index strength in recent weeks.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index continued to rise, gaining 7 percent, or 278 points, this week to close at 4,340. Maritime Research’s Grain Freight Index reached 592.3 this week, its highest point since November 2008.

File Name
PR 100514.pdf
PR 100514.xls
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