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Spring Wheat and Durum Tour Provides Insight, Interaction for U.S. Wheat Industry Stakeholders

USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman during one of the many stops on the 2023 Spring Wheat and Durum Tour across North Dakota.

Participating in the Wheat Quality Council’s Spring and Durum Wheat Tour for the first time, U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) Peter Laudeman was eager to discover what he could learn about the 2023 crop across an important section of the Northern Plains.

He wasn’t disappointed.

The tour, which included examination of more than 300 spring wheat and durum fields in North Dakota and western Minnesota, was supplemented by information about the timing of the current crop, along with the weather patterns that affect it.

“Overall, we saw a wide variety of crop conditions, with the conditions and maturity largely depending on planting dates,” reported Laudeman, USW’s Director of Trade Policy. “In general, the later planted wheat looked like it may have better potential as long as it has enough time to mature.”

Production. Process and People

Not only did Laudeman experience differing field conditions on the Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat Tour, he was also able to participate in the analytics: those on the tour were asked to write down details and measurements from each field, with those measurements used to help formulate yield estimates.

Importantly, he was also able to interact with a sizeable cross-section of the U.S. wheat industry.

“There was a diverse variety of people from across the wheat value chain, many who were getting into wheat fields for the first time,” Laudeman explained. “It was especially great to see so many participants from the USDA, including representatives from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) who will be able to use their experience with the tour as a concrete proof point in their work with overseas customers for U.S. commodity exports.”

The tour included the examination of more than 300 spring wheat and durum fields in North Dakota and western Minnesota. It was supplemented by information about the timing of the current crop, along with the weather patterns that affect it.

2023 Crop Looks ‘Average’

The three-day tour wrapped up July 27 with presentations in Fargo by the Northern Crops Institute (NCI) at North Dakota State University (NDSU). Overall, reports from the tour indicate North Dakota wheat farmers later this summer will be harvesting an average crop with good quality. The tour estimated the average hard red spring wheat yield at 47.4 bushels per acre, a bit below the 2022 tour estimate of 49.1.

Tour is Important Tool

Wheat Quality Council Executive Vice President David Green, who organized the tour, said the event is all about providing insight and education.

“Along with calculating and estimating the crop’s potential, we also aim to educate people who are new to the industry, or even those in the industry who have not experienced this process,” said Green.

July 28, 2023/by Ralph Loos

Desert Durum, durum, Exports, Northern Durum

World Pasta Day Places Spotlight on Durum Producers

U.S. durum producers appreciate World Pasta Day – widely celebrated each Oct. 25 – because it pays tribute to a product made from the wheat they grow.

But many of them agree with Erica Olson, who believes “every day is Pasta Day” for at least one segment of the wheat industry.

That will be especially true next month when Olson, market development and research manager for the North Dakota Wheat Commission, travels to Europe to participate in a U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Crop Quality Seminar. Over the course of a week, Olson and USW Vice President of Programs Erica Oakley will present on the 2022 U.S. wheat crop – including durum, the primary wheat class used for making pasta – to wheat buyers in Italy and the United Kingdom. Other USW staff will host similar sessions for buyers in Spain and Portugal.

“Buyers from Italy are especially curious each year to hear about the U.S. durum crop and there are always a lot of questions,” explained Olson. “They are very quality-conscious, and pasta makers in Italy have a strong focus on the quality of the wheat they purchase. This year we will be able to share that the U.S. durum supply has rebounded, and the overall crop is exceptionally good.”

North Dakota produces a majority of the U.S. northern durum crop, followed by Montana. The Desert Durum^® class is grown in Arizona and California.

Among the things Olson and Oakley will share with European buyers about the 2022 U.S. durum crop is that semolina color values are very high, which is an important quality for pasta makers who annually seek two things in the wheat they purchase: color and hardness.

Celebrating Pasta on a Global Scale

World Pasta Day was the result of 40 pasta makers from around the world gathering in Rome, Italy in 1995 for the inaugural World Pasta Congress. The goal of the special day is to promote pasta consumption, as well celebrating its culinary and cultural importance.

The International Pasta Organization (IPO) was formed on Oct. 25, 2005, and was formally constituted in Italy a year later. IPO coordinates international communications aimed at safeguarding the product, develops common strategies to promote the worldwide consumption of pasta, and creates and manages information and food education.

While celebrations vary in each country, World Pasta Day focuses on consumers – the people around the world who enjoy eating some of the 600 or so shapes and sizes of pasta.

For U.S. durum producers, World Pasta Day is an opportunity to take pride in the role they play in putting high quality pasta on the plates of consumers around the world.

October 24, 2022/by Ralph Loos

durum, Wheat Quality

Larger Durum Crop Comes with Favorable Properties for Dough, Positive Pasta Characteristics

Buyers will find a larger supply of durum from the northern part of the United States in 2022. This high-quality crop boasts excellent grading and kernel characteristics and high falling numbers. Lower than average protein levels, along with pockets of lower 1000 kernel weights and smaller kernels, can be managed through diligent contract specifications. Dough properties look to be strong, as do cooked pasta characteristics. With high vitreous levels, low moisture, high test weights, little to no damage, sound kernel characteristics and high color scores, this crop will provide tremendous value to buyers.

2022 CROP HIGHLIGHTS

The average GRADE of the 2022 crop is U.S. No. 1 Hard Amber Durum (HAD); 75% of the crop grades U.S. No. 1 HAD, up from 39% in 2021.

Average TEST WEIGHT of 61.8 (80.4 kg/hl), above last year and the 5-year averages.

DAMAGE was quite low at 0.1% due to minimal disease pressure; SHRUNKEN AND BROKEN KERNELS were at 1.0% with pockets of slightly higher levels due to dryness during kernel fill.

The average VITREOUS KERNEL (HVAC) content is 92%, higher than last year and five-year averages. Nearly two-thirds of the samples were above 90% HVAC, but pockets of the crop saw lower HVAC levels due to low protein levels.

PROTEIN averages 13.7% (12% mb), lower than last year’s drought-impacted crop, and is a result of above-average yields in parts of the region, as well as heat and moisture induced higher protein levels in other areas. Nearly 70% of the samples are above 13.0% protein.

The average 1000 KERNEL WEIGHT (TKW) is 40.4 g, slightly lower than last year. This year has a wider than normal distribution of 1000 kernel weights and kernel sizes across the growing region.

For the second year, KERNEL MOISTURE was lower (11.0%) than average due to a mostly dry harvest period.

FALLING NUMBER values are high, with the average being 433 seconds, with 99 percent of the crop above 300 seconds.

For a second consecutive year, DON is nearly non-existent in all production regions in 2022.

Farmers in the northern part of the U.S. produced a larger durum wheat crop in 2022. The U.S. Wheat Crop Quality Report shows high vitreous levels, low moisture, high test weights, little to no damage, sound kernel characteristics and high color scores, this crop will provide tremendous value to buyers.

Wheat farmers in the northern part of the U.S. produced a larger durum crop in 2022. The U.S. Wheat Associates Crop Quality Report shows that this year’s crop has high vitreous levels, low moisture, high test weights, little to no damage, sound kernel characteristics and high color scores. Overall, durum is expected to provide tremendous value to buyers around the world.

LABORATORY MILLING for the 2022 survey was performed on a Quadromat® Junior mill, the same as the previous three years. Semolina extraction is 53.9%, indicating a reduction in extraction from last year; commercial mills are likely to see higher extraction values. Some adjustment for smaller kernel size and lighter 1000 kernel weight in portions of the crop may be required.

ASH is similar to last year at 0.64%, with SPECK COUNTS higher than last year but similar to the five-year average.

SEMOLINA PROTEIN is 12.0%, well below recent years due to lower kernel protein.

Similarly, GLUTEN INDEX values and WET GLUTEN are both lower.

SEMOLINA COLOR shows a notable improvement in the b value (yellow color) at 31.2, with similar brightness to the five-year average.

MIXING PROPERTIES reveal a slightly weaker crop, due in part to the lower protein content.

COOKED SPAGHETTI EVALUATIONS show improved color, with less cooking loss, but slightly lower cooked weight and firmness.

October 21, 2022/by Ralph Loos

durum, Hard Red Spring, Northern Durum, Wheat Quality

Spring Wheat Tour Scouts Say the Crop Has Excellent Potential

The 2022 Hard Spring Wheat Tour sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council ended July 28 with a very positive outlook for the U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and durum crop. The wheat is behind its normal development at this time of year because of late planting, but more than 50 industry participants determined a total weighted average HRS yield estimate of 49.1 bushels per acre (about 3.3 metric tons per hectare). The weighted average durum yield was 39 bu/a, or about 2.7 MT/ha.

Those estimates are the highest since the spring wheat tour estimated an average HRS yield of 49.9 bu/a in 2015. Following the drought-ravaged 2021 crop, the much-improved potential of this crop is welcome news to spring wheat farmers. Harvest is not expected to start for at least 3 weeks, depending on weather conditions but the industry is cautiously optimistic.

Photo of Tyllor Ledford on 2022 Spring Wheat Tour

Measuring for Yield Potential. USW Assistant Director, West Coast Office, Tyllor Ledford measures a section of a North Dakota HRS crop to start calculating yield potential on the 2022 Hard Spring Wheat tour. Photo by Jeff Beach, AgWeek.

Neal Fisher, Executive Director of the North Dakota Wheat Commission told Progressive Farmer/DTN that there is a lot of potential “if we do not have an early frost of rain at harvest, and we can keep diseases [and pests] at bay.” The spring wheat tour scouts did see evidence of grasshopper damage in the crop, pest pressure likely resulting from the drought last year.

Happy Customer

In the same article, a representative of a large U.S. snack food company said participating in the spring wheat tour helped him understand future [supply] risks. He added that he was happy with the yield potential and thought the wheat quality “was great.”

Buyers and Farmers Together

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Assistant Director, West Coast Office, Tyllor Ledford participated in the 2022 spring wheat tour. Dave Green, Executive Director, Wheat Quality Council, noted that having representatives from milling and wheat food processing industries participate with farmers and other stakeholders is a crucial part of the annual tours.

The real value of the tour said one farmer is connecting with buyers and end-users in the fields to show them how farmers manage their crops for the best potential yield and functional quality.

July 29, 2022/by Steve Mercer

durum, Market and Crop Analysis, Michael Anderson

What is the Outlook for World Durum Production?

Global durum production is expected to rebound in 2022/23, but stocks are likely to remain tight this season.

Total durum production in 2022/23 is expected to increase 10% to 33.9 MMT, led by increases in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. While durum production in North America looks good, production across Europe and North Africa is expected to fall. Reductions are led by the E.U. and Australia. Kazakhstan is expected to produce more durum but has banned wheat exports through September. Countries across North Africa, including Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, grow significant domestic crops, but durum production this year is forecast to be smaller, increasing the need for imports.

Drought Slashed Production

Last year, leading durum producers, including the United States and Canada, experienced hot weather and dry conditions that drastically cut production. Worldwide, beginning stocks of durum, according to Stratégie Grains, are 7.9 MMT, 1.6 MMT less than 2021/22. However, unlike last year, durum production estimates outside the E.U. and North Africa look good.

European Union

According to Stratégie Grains, a European research analyst, production across the European Union (E.U.) is seen falling to historically low levels due to dry weather. Stratégie Grains cut its E.U. durum production forecast by 600,000 MT between May and July. Stratégie Grains now forecasts production at 7.0 MMT, 9% behind 2021/22; if realized, this would be the lowest durum production since 1997.

Italy is by far the largest European durum user. Demand is pegged at 6.1 MMT. It produces a sizeable domestic crop but is experiencing a severe drought this year. An extremely dry winter and spring followed by hot weather since late spring has left the growing area parched, leading to the worst conditions in 70 years. The Italian government this month declared a state of emergency.

Heat is On in Europe

According to Coldiretti, an Italian agricultural lobby, the country’s durum and “common” wheat production this year is expected to fall 15% as the drought slashes yields. The Italian Millers’ Industrial Association expects durum production to fall 10% to 3.5 MMT.

Italian durum production, estimated at 3.4 MMT, is expected to fall 2.6 MMT short of total demand. According to USDA sales data, for the 2022/23 marketing year, which began June 1, U.S. durum sales to Italy are up 124% compared to the same time last year.

United States

According to the USDA June Acreage Report, in the U.S., durum wheat planted area increased by 34% to 1.98 million acres (801,277 hectares). In the USDA’s July WASDE report, durum production in 2022/23 is forecast at 2.1 MMT, more than double 2021/22. Exports are expected to increase twofold to 800,000 MT.

The latest Crop Progress Report, published by USDA on July 18, rated 80% of North Dakota’s wheat good or excellent, while Montana reported 50% good or excellent. North Dakota and Montana together account for 93% of the durum wheat grown in the U.S.

USW chart showing U.S. durum production, stocks and export sales

More Durum, More Sales. USDA’s first forecasts of U.S. durum production and exports in marketing year 2022/23 are up significantly. The market will be watching conditions closely from now until harvest.

Canada

Canada, usually the largest durum exporter globally, saw sluggish durum exports in the 2021/22 season. Western Canada experienced a devastating drought in 2021, which slashed yields and cut production by 53%. According to Statistic Canada, durum exports were 60% behind their 2020/21 pace through February, the latest data available.

This year looks different. Statistics Canada projects a 75% increase in supply. Canadian production is forecast at 5.52 MMT in 2022/23 due to increased seeded area and improved yields. Exports are also expected to increase 72% to 4.3 MMT.

Mexico

Durum production dominates Mexico’s total wheat production. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in June 2022 dropped its forecast of Mexican wheat production slightly to 3.26 MMT for 2022/23. This change was based on information from industry and official government sources, reflecting unfavorable weather conditions and other factors. Mexico’s total durum and wheat exports are forecast at 850,000 MT.

Global Demand

Global demand for durum wheat is projected to increase 1.0 MMT to 32.9 MMT in 2022/23. As a result of the lower domestic production in many countries, global trade for durum is projected to increase 1.5 MMT to 7.4 MMT in 2022/23.

Stratégie Grains forecasts durum E.U. imports from non E.U. members to be 2.4 MMT, 1.0 MMT more than last year. Imports to Morocco are expected to increase 400,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.

Outlook More Optimistic

The tight ending stocks and a poor European harvest kept durum prices initially high at the start of 2022/23. Now increased planted acres and a positive outlook for the upcoming harvest have created an optimistic outlook for the North American durum crop and potentially easing export prices. However, another year of tight supplies and unknown variables, especially weather, between now and harvest could mean price fluctuations for the marketing year ahead.

The weekly Price Report, published by U.S. Wheat Associates, shows price indications, including durum wheat. USW also publishes annual crop quality data, including for durum wheat. The 2022/23 U.S. durum crop quality will be reported this fall.

Photo of durum kernels to illustrate durum production story

U.S. Durum Production is in North Dakota and Montana where Northern Durum is grown and shipped from Great Lakes and Pacific ports; Desert Durum® is grown primarily under contract in the desert Southwest and shipped via the Gulf or West Coast.

*Supply and demand estimates for durum wheat including world production, beginning stocks, EU-specific highlights, Italy, and Morocco, are based on Stratégie Grains’ July 15, 2022, Durum Report.

By USW Market Analyst Michael Anderson

July 21, 2022/by Steve Mercer