• Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Vimeo
  • LinkedIn
  • SUBSCRIBE
  • MEMBER LOGIN
U.S. Wheat Associates
  • Our Story
    • About USW
    • Dependable People. Reliable Wheat.
    • Board of Directors
    • Staff Directory
    • Office Locations
  • Market Information
    • Market Information
    • Price Reports
    • Price Charting Tools
    • Supply and Demand
    • Commercial Sales
  • Crop Quality
    • Crop Quality
    • Harvest Reports
    • Hard Red Winter
    • Hard Red Spring
    • Hard White
    • Soft White
    • Soft Red Winter
    • Durum
  • Working With Buyers
    • Working With Buyers
    • Customer Conferences
    • Wheat Classes
    • Wheat Glossary
    • Wheat Grade Factors
    • How to Buy
    • Ask the Expert
    • Resources
  • Who We Represent
    • Who We Represent
    • Board Meetings
    • State Wheat Commissions
    • Partners
    • Trade Activities
  • Policy
    • Policy
    • Trade Negotiations
    • Trade Barriers
    • Innovation and Sustainability
    • Food Security and Assistance
    • Public–Private Partnership
  • News
    • Newsroom
    • Wheat Letter Blog
    • News Releases
    • Videos
  • Search
  • Menu Menu
You are here: Wheat Letter Blog 1
Market and Crop Analysis

Drought-Fueled Production Losses in Australia Alter Global Wheat Trade

By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst

Prolonged drought has severely impacted Australia’s wheat production and, as a result, contributed to a significant shift in world wheat trade. If current weather conditions in Australia persist, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) believes these export trends could continue through marketing year (MY) 2019/20 and beyond.

According to USDA data, in the five years leading up to drought conditions that started in 2017, Australia exported an average of 18.5 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat per year. In MY 2016/17, Australian wheat production reached a record 31.8 MMT and exports reached 22.6 MMT, their highest level since MY 2011/12 (a significant portion of this volume was wheat exported for animal feed). In MY 2017/18, however, reduced supplies led to a sharp fall in Australian wheat exports to 13.8 MMT. In MY 2018/19, exports fell again to 9.0 MMT after Australian wheat production declined to 17.3 MMT.

Australia produces white wheats that compete effectively in regional bread applications, but most significantly in South and North Asian noodle markets. Even though there is no single U.S. wheat class with optimal characteristics for fine Asian noodle products, over many years, USW has provided technical assistance to millers and noodle manufacturers on blending of U.S. wheat or flour to optimize noodle quality and compete with Australian noodle varieties. In addition, U.S. hard red spring (HRS) provides a competitive option for higher protein flour needed in many markets to meet expanding demand for loaf bread products and hamburger buns.

USW believes that key customers have turned to the United States as Australian farmers struggle to produce enough exportable supplies. Between MY 2016/17 and MY 2018/19, for example, Australia lost market share in six of its top ten wheat export markets. Notably, Australian wheat exports to the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia declined while U.S. wheat exports to those countries increased in MY 2018/19.

Australian wheat’s share as a percent of total wheat imports in four key export markets has declined over the past two market years. Prolonged drought has significantly reduced exportable Australian supplies.

In MY 2019/20, USDA predicts Australian wheat production will rebound slightly to 21.0 MMT and exports are expected to increase to 12.5 MMT. Current USDA commercial sales data also show U.S. wheat exports to those four countries are ahead of last year’s pace.

U.S. farmers understand all too well the financial strain drought creates for their families and for end users of their wheat. Australian farmers must be concerned about whether their market share will rebound when the drought ends and supplies increase. That too is something U.S. wheat farmers, who have lost virtually all their market share in China under the current trade dispute, can understand. Market conditions change for all competitors. Ideally, that competition will continue to be carried out with the best interest of our shared customers and prospects in mind.

September 4, 2019/by actualize
Share this
  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on WhatsApp
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share by Mail
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Australian-Export-Profile-Header.jpg 570 1104 actualize https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png actualize2019-09-04 15:16:202019-09-04 15:16:20Drought-Fueled Production Losses in Australia Alter Global Wheat Trade

Wheatletter Sidebar

Quick Links

  • Newsroom
  • Wheat Letter Blog
  • News Releases
  • Videos

Wheat Letter Related Blogs

Educational Partnerships, USW Announcements

U.S. Wheat Associates Wishes Janice Cooper Farewell

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) wishes all the best to our friend and colleague Janice Cooper as…
MORE
June 30, 2022
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/Partners-Page-WMC-Feature-Photo-2.jpg 439 1000 Amanda Spoo https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png Amanda Spoo2022-06-30 18:22:012022-06-30 18:27:55U.S. Wheat Associates Wishes Janice Cooper Farewell
Compound image shows hard white wheat in the field, harvested, and in Chinese steam buns.
Hard White, Mark Fowler, Technical Service Activities

Defining U.S. Wheat’s Comparative (Competitive) Advantage: Hard White

In the increasingly competitive global wheat market, it is important to review the advantages…
MORE
June 29, 2022
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/hard-white-header.png 570 1104 actualize https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png actualize2022-06-29 13:00:202022-06-30 09:50:33Defining U.S. Wheat’s Comparative (Competitive) Advantage: Hard White

Stay up to date on wheat industry news!

SUBSCRIBE

Think Farm Export Programs Don’t Matter? Think Again.

GET THE REST OF THE STORY

Our Story

  • About USW
  • Dependable People. Reliable Wheat.
  • Board of Directors
  • Staff Directory
  • Office Locations

Market Information

  • Market Information
  • Price Reports
  • Price Charting Tools
  • Supply and Demand
  • Commercial Sales

Crop Quality

  • Crop Quality
  • Harvest Reports
  • Hard Red Winter
  • Hard Red Spring
  • Hard White
  • Soft White
  • Soft Red Winter
  • Durum

Working with Buyers

  • Working With Buyers
  • Customer Conferences
  • Wheat Classes
  • Wheat Glossary
  • Wheat Grade Factors
  • How to Buy
  • Ask the Expert
  • Resources

Who We Represent

  • Who We Represent
  • Board Meetings
  • State Wheat Commissions
  • Partners
  • Trade Activities

Policy

  • Policy
  • Trade Negotiations
  • Trade Barriers
  • Innovation and Sustainability
  • Food Security and Assistance
  • Public-Private Partnership

News

  • Newsroom
  • Wheat Letter Blog
  • News Releases
  • Videos

DTN Wheat Detail
DTN Corn Detail

2008-2013 U.S. Wheat Associates. All Rights Reserved
Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Statement

Scroll to top