U.S. wheat Associates (USW) Market Analyst Michael Anderson recently prepared a Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook report based on USDA’s latest market data published in May 2021.
The report is shared with the USW Board of Directors three times per year. Directors include wheat farmer leaders representing the organization’s 17 state wheat commission members.
Vie the full Summer 2021 report online here.
The World Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook includes the first look at USDA’s estimates of marketing year 2021/22 (June 1 to May 31) world wheat supply and demand and production in the major wheat exporting countries and regions. U.S. by-class estimates for 2021/22 are not published until July, but this report includes USDA’s estimate of U.S. commercial wheat sales for 2020/21 and its first forecast for 2021/22.
USDA sees a record-setting trend in world wheat production and use continuing in 2021/22. Based on USDA’s May estimates, total world wheat production is expected to reach a record 794.4 million metric tons (MMT). Among exporting regions, production is forecast to increase in the United States, the Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan), the European Union (EU) and Argentina. Declines are expected in Australia and Canada. USDA estimates 2021/22 world wheat ending stocks will reach 296.8 MMT, a volume similar to last year.
Higher global production is matched by increased global demand as USDA expects total global wheat consumption will reach a record 791.1 MMT, or 9.6 MMT more than last year. This forecast is driven primarily by higher feed and residual use. Global human consumption of wheat is expected to increase 1% on the year but still a record level of 630.4 MMT. USDA expects global trade to reach 203.2 MMT, up 4.1 MMT from last year.
2021/22 U.S. Commercial Sales
Throughout the year, even in the face of the pandemic restrictions on travel and meetings, USW representatives were able to sustain a strong level of service and information flow to its customers, with support from its state commission members and USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service export market development programs.
The World Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook report shows USDA’s final estimate of total 2020/21 U.S. wheat commercial sales was 25.5 MMT, 4% less than in 2019/20. In part because of larger exportable supplies in other major exporting regions, USDA currently expects 2021/22 U.S. wheat export sales to be 24.5 MMT.