• Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Vimeo
  • LinkedIn
  • SUBSCRIBE
  • MEMBER LOGIN
U.S. Wheat Associates
  • Our Story
    • About USW
    • Dependable People. Reliable Wheat.
    • Board of Directors
    • Staff Directory
    • Office Locations
  • Market Information
    • Market Information
    • Price Reports
    • Price Charting Tools
    • Supply and Demand
    • Commercial Sales
  • Crop Quality
    • Crop Quality
    • Harvest Reports
    • Hard Red Winter
    • Hard Red Spring
    • Hard White
    • Soft White
    • Soft Red Winter
    • Durum
  • Working With Buyers
    • Working With Buyers
    • Customer Conferences
    • Wheat Classes
    • Wheat Glossary
    • Wheat Grade Factors
    • How to Buy
    • Ask the Expert
    • Resources
  • Who We Represent
    • Who We Represent
    • Board Meetings
    • State Wheat Commissions
    • Partners
    • Trade Activities
  • Policy
    • Policy
    • Trade Negotiations
    • Trade Barriers
    • Innovation and Sustainability
    • Food Security and Assistance
    • Public–Private Partnership
  • News
    • Newsroom
    • Wheat Letter Blog
    • News Releases
    • Videos
  • Search
  • Menu Menu
You are here: Wheat Letter Blog 1
Market and Crop Analysis, Michael Anderson, Wheat Production and Harvest

Wheat Exporting Countries Control Just 18% of Global Stocks

Green wheat field

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

As the U.S. wheat 2021/22 marketing year reaches its halfway point, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) summarizes market factors affecting global wheat supply and demand with its farmer board of directors. The data comes from USDA’s October reports, which will be updated on November 9. We want to share some information here, focusing on key wheat exporting countries.

USDA pegs 2021/22 world wheat production at a record 776 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.0 MMT from last year and 2% above the 5-year average of 757 MMT. Total global supplies are forecast to reach 1,064 MMT, 1% less than last year.

Significantly lower production is expected in the United States, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and a slight drop in Australian production, all exporting countries.

Change in world Wheat Production 2021

Among wheat exporting countries, the United States, Canada, Russia, Australia, Kazakhstan and Australia saw wheat production decline for 2021. All wheat exporting countries now hold 18% of world wheat stocks.

USDA estimates 2021/22 world wheat ending stocks will reach 277 MMT, down 4% from last year and 2% less than the 5-year average. A closer look at stocks held by exporting countries reveals that USDA now expects exporters to control just 18% of world wheat stocks, including Black Sea exporters. When exporters hold so few stocks, a bullish market and volatility result.

Following are USDA estimates for selected exporting countries, except where noted.

United States

  • U. S. wheat production will total 44.8 MMT, down 10% from last year and 15% below the 5-year average;
  • Persistent, severe dryness significantly cut hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and Northern durum production;
  • Total U.S. wheat exports will reach 23.8 MMT in 2021/22, 12% less than last year and 10% less than the 5-year average.

Canada

  • Canadian 2021/22 wheat production will reach 21.0 MMT, 40% lower than last year and 35% less than the 5-year average of 35.4 MMT;
  • Spring wheat production is projected to decrease 40% on the year to 15.3 MMT due to extended dry weather Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) reported;
  • According to Statistics Canada, Canadian durum production is forecast to be 3.5 MMT in 2021/22, 46% less than last year on significantly drier growing conditions;
  • Total Canadian wheat exports will decrease 43% from last year to 15.0 MMT, 36% less than the 5-year average.

Russia

  • Total 2021/22 Russian wheat production decreased 15% on the year to 72.5 MMT;
  • According to SG, Russian planted area was down 1%, and average Russian wheat yield decreased 10% from last year to 39.55 bu/acre;
  • The imposition of a government export tax has slowed international demand for Russian wheat;
  • Total Russian wheat exports will fall 9% from last year to 35.0 MMT, 2% less than the 5-year average of 35.6 MMT.

Ukraine

  • USDA estimates total Ukrainian wheat production rose 30% from 2020/21 to 33.0 MMT;
  • SG predicts the total Ukrainian average wheat yield was up 18% from last year to 66.7 bu/acre;
  • Total Ukrainian wheat exports will rise 39% from last year’s record to 23.5 MMT in 2021/22.

Australia

  • Australian wheat production will fall 5% on the year to 31.5 MMT, although this is still a large crop with significant exportable supplies;
  • Increased average yield was lower despite a 7% increase in harvested area of 34.1 million acres;
  • Total Australian exports will be 23.5 MMT, 0.5 MMT down from 2020/21.

European Union

  • Total European Union (EU) wheat production is up 11% on the year to 139.4 MMT;
  • SG estimates that total EU non-durum wheat will be 129.5 MMT, up 9% from last year;
  • Heavy rain during harvest in both France and Germany challenged milling wheat quality and, as a result, 65% of EU non-durum wheat, or 80.8 MMT, meets millable grade;
  • Total EU wheat exports will increase 20% on the year to 35.5 MMT, 20% above the 5-year average.

Argentina

  • Total Argentinian wheat production will rise 14% from last year to 20.0 MMT following good growing conditions this season;
  • Total Argentinian wheat exports are expected to increase to 13.5 MMT in 2021/22, 23% more than last year and 8% greater than the 5-year average.

Exports by Major Wheat Exporting Countries

USDA expects 2021/22 world wheat trade to fall slightly from last year’s record to 200 MMT. If realized, that would be 6% greater than the 5-year average of 189 MMT. Total global wheat use is forecast at 787 MMT in 2021/22.

According to USDA’s trade forecast, the United States will have a 12% market share in the world wheat trade at 23.8 MMT, in line with last year’s market share.

November 5, 2021/by Steve Mercer
Share this
  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on WhatsApp
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share by Mail
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/21JUL-HRS-North-Dakota-wheat-tour-day-2-1.png 1512 2016 Steve Mercer https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png Steve Mercer2021-11-05 16:30:042022-03-29 16:12:23Wheat Exporting Countries Control Just 18% of Global Stocks

Wheatletter Sidebar

Quick Links

  • Newsroom
  • Wheat Letter Blog
  • News Releases
  • Videos

Wheat Letter Related Blogs

A woman in a greenhouse at the Washington State University showing wheat breeding research to a Korean man.
Wheat Industry News

Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the U.S. Wheat Industry   Speaking of Wheat “The…
MORE
February 2, 2023
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/IMG_1653-scaled.jpg 1920 2560 Steve Mercer https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png Steve Mercer2023-02-02 10:26:332023-02-02 10:26:33Wheat Industry News
Image shows farmers in a wheat field with the USW logo and World Wheat Supply and Demand headline to illustrate story on wheat prices.
Market and Crop Analysis

Wheat Prices Trend Lower Even As Uncertainty Continues

Following a year of dramatic volatility, several factors have pressured global wheat prices…
MORE
January 30, 2023
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/Wheat-SD.jpg 763 1318 Steve Mercer https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png Steve Mercer2023-01-30 17:47:322023-01-30 17:47:32Wheat Prices Trend Lower Even As Uncertainty Continues

Stay up to date on wheat industry news!

SUBSCRIBE

Think Farm Export Programs Don’t Matter? Think Again.

GET THE REST OF THE STORY

Our Story

  • About USW
  • Dependable People. Reliable Wheat.
  • Board of Directors
  • Staff Directory
  • Office Locations

Market Information

  • Market Information
  • Price Reports
  • Price Charting Tools
  • Supply and Demand
  • Commercial Sales

Crop Quality

  • Crop Quality
  • Harvest Reports
  • Hard Red Winter
  • Hard Red Spring
  • Hard White
  • Soft White
  • Soft Red Winter
  • Durum

Working with Buyers

  • Working With Buyers
  • Customer Conferences
  • Wheat Classes
  • Wheat Glossary
  • Wheat Grade Factors
  • How to Buy
  • Ask the Expert
  • Resources

Who We Represent

  • Who We Represent
  • Board Meetings
  • State Wheat Commissions
  • Partners
  • Trade Activities

Policy

  • Policy
  • Trade Negotiations
  • Trade Barriers
  • Innovation and Sustainability
  • Food Security and Assistance
  • Public-Private Partnership

News

  • Newsroom
  • Wheat Letter Blog
  • News Releases
  • Videos

DTN Wheat Detail
DTN Corn Detail

2008-2013 U.S. Wheat Associates. All Rights Reserved
Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Statement

Scroll to top