• Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Vimeo
  • LinkedIn
  • SUBSCRIBE
U.S. Wheat Associates
  • Our Story
    • About USW
    • Dependable People. Reliable Wheat.
    • Board of Directors
    • Staff Directory
    • Office Locations
  • Market Information
    • Market Information
    • Price Reports
    • Price Charting Tools
    • Supply and Demand
    • Commercial Sales
  • Crop Quality
    • Crop Quality
    • Harvest Reports
    • Hard Red Winter
    • Hard Red Spring
    • Hard White
    • Soft White
    • Soft Red Winter
    • Durum
  • Working With Buyers
    • Working With Buyers
    • Customer Conferences
    • Wheat Classes
    • Wheat Glossary
    • Wheat Grade Factors
    • How to Buy
    • Ask the Expert
    • Resources
  • Who We Represent
    • Who We Represent
    • Board Meetings
    • State Wheat Commissions
    • Partners
    • Trade Activities
  • Policy
    • Policy
    • Trade Negotiations
    • Trade Barriers
    • Innovation and Sustainability
    • Food Security and Assistance
    • Public–Private Partnership
  • News
    • Newsroom
    • Wheat Letter Blog
    • News Releases
    • Videos
  • Stories of Stewardship
  • Search
  • Menu Menu
You are here: Wheat Letter Blog 1
Market and Crop Analysis, Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, Supply and Demand, Wheat Production and Harvest

Shrinking Global Wheat Production Could Be Bullish for Farmers

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

USDA updated its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on August 10 and expects the global wheat supply and demand situation to be more favorable for U.S. farmers this year due to shrinking global wheat production. USDA lowered its global wheat production estimate by 6.63 million metric tons (MMT) to 730 MMT, down 4 percent year over year and the lowest level since 2014/15, if realized.

Widespread drought across Germany and northern Europe is one reason why USDA dropped its production forecast. USDA expects European Union total wheat production to fall to 138 MMT, 9 percent below both the 5-year average and 2017/18 production. With smaller EU wheat production, USDA lowered marketing year 2018/19 (June 1 to May 31) EU wheat exports to 23.0 MMT. If realized, that would be 2 percent below the year prior, and 25 percent below the 5-year average.

At the same time, USDA also expects Russian wheat production to fall 20 percent year over year to 68.0 MMT due to unfavorable winter wheat planting and growing conditions. With Russian wheat supplies shrinking, the 2018/19 Russian wheat export forecast is down 7.00 MMT from 2017/18 to 35.0 MMT.

With lower exportable wheat supplies (production plus beginning stocks minus domestic consumption) in Russia and the EU, USDA expects the United States to have the largest exportable supply of wheat in the world in 2018/19 at 49.7 MMT.

Consequently, USDA expects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT, up 14 percent from 2017/18 and 7 percent above the 5-year average, if realized. Still, U.S. wheat export sales pace will need to increase to meet this goal, as year-to-date U.S. wheat export sales total just 7.53 MMT or 27 percent of USDA’s anticipated total.

The shrinking global wheat supply, increasing global wheat consumption and large U.S. wheat supply have all lead to U.S. wheat futures rallies over the past month. Since the last WASDE update on July 12, U.S. HRW futures are up 72 cents per bushel ($26 per MT), SRW futures grew 54 cents per bushel ($20 per MT) and HRS climbed 67 cents per bushel ($25 per MT).

Each month, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) updates a graphic summary of USDA’s WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report. View the August summary here.

August 14, 2018/by actualize
Share this
  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on WhatsApp
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share by Mail
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Aug-WASDE-Chart-1.png 790 1053 actualize https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png actualize2018-08-14 15:48:372018-08-14 15:48:37Shrinking Global Wheat Production Could Be Bullish for Farmers

Wheatletter Sidebar

Quick Links

  • Newsroom
  • Wheat Letter Blog
  • News Releases
  • Videos

Wheat Letter Related Blogs

durum, Market and Crop Analysis, Northern Durum, Wheat Industry News

Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry Speaking of Wheat “Amidst the backdrop…
MORE
September 14, 2023
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/sept-8-jone-montana.jpg 500 681 Ralph Loos https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png Ralph Loos2023-09-14 13:00:002023-09-14 13:17:06Wheat Industry News
durum, Hard Red Winter, Mexico, Soft Red Winter, South America

USW Board Team Trip Helped Producers Explore Opportunities for U.S. Wheat in Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico

Exploring opportunities for hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW) and durum wheat in…
MORE
September 13, 2023
https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/banner-7.jpg 704 1168 Ralph Loos https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/USW-Logo-Full-Color.png Ralph Loos2023-09-13 16:08:062023-09-15 16:20:37USW Board Team Trip Helped Producers Explore Opportunities for U.S. Wheat in Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico

Stay up to date on wheat industry news!

SUBSCRIBE

Think Farm Export Programs Don’t Matter? Think Again.

GET THE REST OF THE STORY

Our Story

  • About USW
  • Dependable People. Reliable Wheat.
  • Board of Directors
  • Staff Directory
  • Office Locations

Market Information

  • Market Information
  • Price Reports
  • Price Charting Tools
  • Supply and Demand
  • Commercial Sales

Crop Quality

  • Crop Quality
  • Harvest Reports
  • Hard Red Winter
  • Hard Red Spring
  • Hard White
  • Soft White
  • Soft Red Winter
  • Durum

Working with Buyers

  • Working With Buyers
  • Customer Conferences
  • Wheat Classes
  • Wheat Glossary
  • Wheat Grade Factors
  • How to Buy
  • Ask the Expert
  • Resources

Who We Represent

  • Who We Represent
  • Board Meetings
  • State Wheat Commissions
  • Partners
  • Trade Activities

Policy

  • Policy
  • Trade Negotiations
  • Trade Barriers
  • Innovation and Sustainability
  • Food Security and Assistance
  • Public-Private Partnership

News

  • Newsroom
  • Wheat Letter Blog
  • News Releases
  • Videos

DTN Wheat Detail
DTN Corn Detail

2008-2013 U.S. Wheat Associates. All Rights Reserved
Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Statement

Scroll to top