You are here: / / Wheat Letter Blog
thumbnail

Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

 

Speaking of Wheat

“It’s kind of a nuanced thing, but there’s some challenges right now in the movement of grain across the world, particularly in the Suez Canal, and ocean freight does make a difference. It influences the relative profitability of the U.S. Pacific Northwest vs. the U.S. Gulf vs. Brazil vs. the Black Sea. It’s like shipping product across the U.S. by truck. When trucking rates go up, all of a sudden the normal supply can shift a bit and customers may buy product from elsewhere, so I’m watching that with all the political upheaval going on around the world right now.” – Dr. Frayne Olson, Professor/Crops Economist, North Dakota State University, from an article in Farm & Ranch Guide.

SDSU Researchers Aim to Improve Heat Tolerance in Wheat Crops

Concerned that changes in the climate may cause future wheat production to decline, a team from South Dakota State University intends to edit the genetic code of wheat varieties to make them more tolerant to heat stress. “Our goal is to improve heat tolerance of wheat via precision genome editing technology,” said Wanlong Li, primary investigator on the project and a professor in SDSU’s Department of Biology and Microbiology.  Read more here.

Artist Completes 108-foot Turkey Red Winter Wheat Mural on Kansas Grain Elevator

Mindy Allen, a mural artist in Kansas, recently finished her largest project to date — a 108-foot-tall mural on a grain elevator in rural Inman. The project began as a way to celebrate the 150th anniversary of turkey red winter wheat’s introduction to Kansas. Allen, whose business is called Mindy’s Murals, was determined to honor this milestone accurately. She even engaged the community by setting up a donation poll on Facebook, allowing locals to vote on the color of the combine featured in the mural. Read more here.

Nebraska: Heat Keeps Rains Away During Wheat Harvest

Amid the high temperatures in western Nebraska, wheat harvest has been going on. “We’re right in the middle of wheat harvest,” said Cody Creech, Nebraska Extension dryland cropping specialist at the UNL High Plains Ag Lab in Sidney. “The rest of the state has wrapped up, and we’ll be completing harvest this week.”  Typical for most growers, weather has been a big factor in wheat yields. The yield reports in the Panhandle vary depending on whether the fields were hit by hail or not. “The hail was sporadic this year, where it didn’t wipe out a crop but impacted the yield from field to field,” Creech said.  He added another timely rain would have been good to push the wheat before harvest, but overall wheat yields have been strong across the state. Read more here.

Progress is a Parasitoid Wasp for Colorado Wheat Farmers Plagued by Sawfly

Erika Peirce is one of many soldiers in the shadow army of scientists and researchers working behind the scenes, without glory or recognition, to protect the nation’s wheat crop from a tiny foe: the wheat stem sawfly. An entomologist by training who now works for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Rangeland Unit, Peirce has dedicated much of her career to studying the sawfly. It’s a native bug that started out benignly enough in wild grasslands. But in recent decades, it evolved to emerge about four weeks earlier each season, rendering it a major pest that devastates winter wheat — a crop that happens to be Colorado’s largest by acreage. Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

/by
thumbnail
, ,

Positive Findings During Hard Red Spring and Durum Wheat Tour Produces Optimism in North Dakota

USW Director of Communications Ralph Loos examines a field of hard red spring wheat in Traill County, North Dakota during the 2024 Wheat Quality Tour.

USW Director of Communications Ralph Loos examines a field of hard red spring wheat in Traill County, North Dakota during the 2024 Hard Red Spring and Durum Wheat Tour.

After three days of analyzing, counting and calculating, participants came to a common conclusion: North Dakota wheat farmers may have produced their best crop in decades.

That was the general feeling as the Wheat Quality Council’s 2024 Hard Red Spring and Durum Wheat Tour wrapped up on July 25. More than 40 millers, bakers, grain company representatives, members of the media and government employees from around the country teamed up to examine more than 250 fields of hard red spring (HRS) and durum wheat in the host state – as well as a small number of fields in neighboring Minnesota and South Dakota.

A Three-Day Tour of Wheat

After three days of touring, the average HRS wheat yield was projected at 54.5 bushels per acre, up from 47.4 bushels last year. The durum fields visited had a projected yield of 45.3 bushels per acre, up from the 2023 projections of 43.9. Two hard red winter (HRW) wheat fields on the tour had a projected yield of 51.4 bushels per acre.

An educational session at the North Dakota State University's Agronomy Seed Farm kicked off this year's tour.

An educational session at the North Dakota State University’s Agronomy Seed Farm kicked off this year’s tour.

Optimism and Patience

Dave Green, Executive Vice President of the Wheat Quality Council, said weather conditions in the weeks up until harvest will determine if the 2024 North Dakota wheat crop is record-breaking.

But there is plenty of room for optimism.

“I don’t ever remember the crops being this uniformly good all over the state,” Green, who again was assisted by Brian Walker of BW Consulting and tour statistician Rita Ott of General Mills, said. “We can’t get ahead of ourselves until harvest begins and farmers begin taking wheat out of the fields. At this point, things look really good for some of the best yields we have seen in a number of years.”

For the most part, HRS fields in North Dakota were 3 to 6 weeks from being ready for harvest.

As is typical, a small number of reports of head blight (more commonly referred to as “scab”), stripe rust, wheat stem maggot, and insects were included in reports. However, also noted in those reports was the fact farmers had made timely applications of pesticide sprays to avert effects from pests. The timing of harvest will determine how much of an effect scab has on realized yields.

Variety of Participants

The tour began on July 22 with a training session and a visit to North Dakota State University’s Agronomy Seed Farm. On July 23, participants gathered in Fargo, North Dakota and were broken into teams. Those teams fanned out across the state to analyze this year’s crop. Director of Communications Ralph Loos represented U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) on the tour.

“The thing that makes this tour work so well each year is the fact that you have a collection of people from different parts of the wheat industry who are all interested in the same thing – learning about the crop and all of the things that factor into the success of the crop,” Loos said. “It’s a wide cross-section of people, with varying levels of experience. But I think everyone who participates goes away learning something they did not know before the tour. For U.S. Wheat, it was especially nice to see staff from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) on the tour.”

Dave Green, Executive Vice President of the Wheat Quality Council, helps prepare participants in the 2024 Hard Spring and Durum Wheat Quality Tour during a visit to visit to North Dakota State University's Agronomy Seed Farm.

Dave Green, Executive Vice President of the Wheat Quality Council, helps prepare participants in the 2024 Hard Spring and Durum Wheat Quality Tour during a visit to visit to North Dakota State University’s Agronomy Seed Farm.

/by
thumbnail
,

Production Outlook: Turning a Corner in 2024

As harvest rolls throughout the U.S. Plains, farmers see the culmination of their year’s hard work and investment as crops move from field to bin, eventually becoming products consumed worldwide. After three years of drought that reduced yields, impacted quality, and drove near-record abandonment, the 2024 harvest season stands out as the most promising in recent memory.

The following will outline current harvest progress, crop conditions, and export trends for the marketing year to date as the 2024 crop suggests production will “turn a corner” away from the challenges seen over the last three years.

A Look Back

When the 2023 U.S. winter wheat crop was seeded in 2022, income potential for wheat appeared favorable, with prices still elevated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a result, total seeded wheat area for 2023 was up 8% from the prior year. With current prices falling in line, or in some cases below pre-war trends, and input prices remaining high, profit margins have tightened, placing additional pressure on farmers. As a result, 2024 wheat acres were down 5% to 47.2 million acres, nearly even with the five-year average.

Looking at the acreage by class, the area included 24.1 million acres of HRW (down 6% year over year), 6.1 million acres of SRW (down 17%), 10.6 million acres of HRS (up 1%), 2.2 million acres of durum (up 31%), and 4.6 million acres of white wheat (up 6%). Although the 2024 wheat area is lower year over year, the July 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) put U.S. wheat production a 54.6 MMT, up 10% from the year prior on increased yields, improved weather, and good moisture.

Looking at the acreage by class, the area included 24.1 million acres of HRW (down 6% year over year), 6.1 million acres of SRW (down 17%), 10.6 million acres of HRS (up 1%), 2.2 million acres of durum (up 31%), and 4.6 million acres of white wheat (up 6%). Although the 2024 wheat area is lower year over year, the July 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) put U.S. wheat production a 54.6 MMT, up 10% from the year prior on increased yields, improved weather, and good moisture. Source: July WASDE

A Current Harvest Snapshot

As the U.S. winter wheat harvest begins to wind down, the July 21 Crop Progress Report estimates that 76% of winter wheat is in the bin, up 11 points from the year prior and 4 points ahead of the five year average. Warm weather and improved moisture accelerated crop maturation across much of the hard red winter (HRW) growing region and the first by class estimates put HRW production at 20.8 MMT, a 27% increase from the year prior. On the other hand, soft red winter (SRW) production estimates sit at 9.4 MMT, down 23% from last year’s record yields, though still sitting 4% ahead of the five-year average.

Spring wheat development remains on schedule with 89% of the crop headed, nearly even with the five-year average. As of July 21, 77% of the crop sits in good to excellent condition, up from 49% last year as rains and cool weather boost yield potential. A reflection of the good ratings, the July WASDE put hard red spring (HRS) production at 14.5 MMT and durum at 2.4 MMT, a yearly increase of 14% and 51%, respectively. For white wheat (which includes both winter and spring varieties), production estimates sit at 7.6 MMT, a 19% increase year over year.

Although the 2024 wheat area is lower year over year, the July 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) put U.S. wheat production a 54.6 MMT, up 10% from the year prior on increased yields, improved weather, and good moisture. The USDA estimates also show renewed optimism for exports, with the July projections setting exports at 22.4 MMT, the highest since 2020/21, but still 15% below the pre-drought five-year average. Source: July WASDE

Although the 2024 wheat area is lower year over year, the July 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) put U.S. wheat production a 54.6 MMT, up 10% from the year prior on increased yields, improved weather, and good moisture. The USDA estimates also show renewed optimism for exports, with the July projections setting exports at 22.4 MMT, the highest since 2020/21, but still 15% below the pre-drought five-year average. Source: July WASDE

 

Customers Capture Value

More normalized production has helped prices become more competitive in recent weeks. When U.S. wheat prices hit multi year lows in late June, buyers responded with increased purchases of U.S. wheat, peaking at 805,300 MT on June 27, 2024. Over the last month, weekly net sales averaged 576,200 MT and as of July 11, the total known outstanding sales for MY 2024/25 reached 7.7 MMT, 49% ahead of last year’s pace.

Customers worldwide have increased their purchases relative to last year, with notable increases in four of the top five U.S. wheat importers to date. Likewise, buyers in Panama, Brazil, Thailand, and Indonesia have logged additional sales, showing increase of 571%, 240%, 175%, and 273%. Source: USDA FAS Export Sales Data

Customers worldwide have increased their purchases relative to last year, with notable increases in four of the top five U.S. wheat importers to date. Likewise, buyers in Panama, Brazil, Thailand, and Indonesia have logged additional sales, showing increase of 571%, 240%, 175%, and 273%. Source: USDA FAS Export Sales Data

Customers worldwide have increased their purchases relative to last year, with notable increases in four of the top five U.S. wheat importers to date. The USDA’s July projections reflect this renewed optimism, setting exports at 22.4 MMT, the highest since 2020/21, though still 15% below the pre-drought five-year average.

As the harvest progresses, there is an opportunity to capitalize on the value of U.S. wheat. Price spreads have narrowed and continue to align more closely with other origins. Improved production simplifies purchasing decisions, and as always, U.S. Wheat Associates is ready to help customers find the best value.

/by
thumbnail

USW Joins Letter to Congress Opposing Proposed Significant Cuts to Food for Peace Program

U.S Wheat Associates (USW) and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) joined 90 agriculture, humanitarian, shipping, and labor organizations in signing a letter opposing a proposed reduction of $619 million to the Food for Peace Program.

The letter was addressed to the U.S. House Committee on Appropriations, which released an initial funding bill for Fiscal Year 2025. That bill included the significant cut to Food for Peace.

Ag Groups Concerned

The proposed reduction caused alarms to go off within agricultural groups that participate in food assistance programs. Food for Peace is the largest food assistance program in which USW participates. Wheat typically makes up about 60% of commodities donated under the program.

“Such a drastic cut would really be a blow, not just wheat farmers, but people involved in growing all commodities used in the program,” said Peter Laudeman, USW’s Director of Trade Policy. “This is tremendously important to a variety of American stakeholders. A crucial question about foreign aid programs is, ‘how does the U.S. best implement foreign aid policy? We think starting with American constituencies is important. And that is exactly what the Food for Peace program does – it starts with U.S. farmers growing food. That is why we were proud to sign on to that letter and push back against this substantial cut.”

House Vote Pending

The letter to the House Appropriations Committee begins by asking committee members to vote “no” on the Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2025.

“Under the current text, our nation’s flagship international food aid program Food for Peace would be funded at only $1 billion, an enormous $619 million reduction from FY24 levels, already a large cut from FY23, and dramatically below the authorized level of $2.5 billion,” the letter then explains. “Catastrophically, this further cut comes at a time of unprecedented global hunger. Now is not the time to slow the provision of much-needed aid.”

Along with USW and NAWG, other groups signing the letter included the North American Millers’ Association, the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers, and the Washington Association of Wheat Growers.

Laudeman is hopeful that the U.S. Senate’s version of the bill may not have that same drastic cut to Food for Peace. It is possible the final piece of legislation may include funding levels at or close to existing funding levels.

During his visit to Kenya, USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman was given a tour of the World Food Programme warehousing facility for the Kakuma refugee camp.

During his visit to Kenya, USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman was given a tour of the World Food Programme warehousing facility for the Kakuma refugee camp.

Food Aid Learning Journey to Kenya

As part of its Food Aid Working Group, USW has conducted fact-finding visits to countries receiving U.S. assistance. Laudeman recently traveled to Kenya, where, thanks to the World Food Programme (WFP) he was able to observe how food assistance is utilized locally.

“We spent time in Mombasa looking at import infrastructure and warehousing capabilities, and how they manage grain. The Kenyan operation also serves as an East African regional hub for all of the programs and activities,” Laudeman explained. “They’ve historically received wheat into Mombasa, had the wheat toll milled, and sent the flour on to other countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo for emergency feeding needs. I was also able to spend time in Nairobi meeting with more of the logistics team. I also met with the country director for the World Food Programme in Kenya, and learned more about their long-term structural environment.

“Perhaps the most exciting thing I learned is that the World Food Programme said they could use a shipment of U.S. wheat at any time,” Laudeman said. “And so, while that is not an immediate opportunity, it is something about which we hope to work with the U.S. government. We will continue to discuss where wheat is being used in food assistance programs. Everyone wants to learn how we can make it easier. We also want to see how we can make coordination and logistics work.”

 

 

 

/by
thumbnail

Video: Idaho Wheat Farmer Clark Hamilton Begins Term as USW Chairman During Oklahoma City Meeting

Idaho Producer Clark Hamilton assumed the role of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Chairman during the recent USW Board of Directors meeting in Oklahoma City, Okla. The Board recognized outgoing Chairman Michael Peters, of Okarche, Okla., who passed the gavel to Hamilton on July 11.  Jim Pellman, of McClusky, N.D., started his term as Vice Chairman. Gary Millershaski, of Lakin, Kan., was seated as Secretary-Treasurer.

The Board Meeting included several USW committee and working group meetings, including Wheat Quality, Wheat Transportation, Long Range Planning, Communications, and Food Aid.

Hamilton, who farms with his family in Ririe, Idaho, will lead USW for the next year. Learn more about him and his plans in this short video . . .

 

/by
thumbnail
, ,

USW Helps Customers Understand the Value of U.S. Wheat Inspection Procedures

The U.S. farm families who produce the wheat and the industry that supplies it are committed to keeping and open and transparent market. There are many reasons why our overseas customers know they can depend on our supply chain’s integrity, the quality of U.S. wheat and our unmatched reliability as a supplier. A crucial example is the third party wheat inspection procedures that yield valuable data customers can use, with help from U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), to get even more value from their purchases.

USW has partnered with USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) to produce an “Overview of U.S. Wheat Inspection.” This publication compiles official sampling, weighing, inspection, and certification procedures employed by FGIS, or FGIS-authorized state and private agencies, for U.S. wheat export shipments. The “Overview” provides a convenient, concise reference for U.S. wheat importers and end users about U.S. wheat standards, inspection methods, procedures, and resulting data about their purchases.

Federally Mandated Wheat Inspection

Based on two congressional acts establishing a standardized process, trained and certified officials inspect and grade all wheat exported from the United States as it is loaded onto an export vessel, whether it be a train or ship. This independent wheat inspection procedure sets the United States apart by providing a form of certainty and protection for global wheat buyers.

The supply chain follows federally regulated and uniform grain segregation and inspection procedures. U.S. country elevators and export elevators inspect and test wheat as it arrives and segregates by class and quality to meet customer requirements. FGIS independently inspects wheat at vessel loading to certify that the quality loaded matches the customer’s specifications. No wheat is loaded onto a vessel until inspection is completed.

FGIS Quality Assurance

Every FGIS field office has a Quality Assurance Specialist trained to ensure inspectors and testing equipment are performing accurately. A Board of Appeals and Review is comprised of the Agency’s most senior inspectors who make final determinations on grain quality assessments.

Five Inspection Operations

An FGIS inspector uses a Boerner Divider to cut down the wheat sample into 2 smaller, equal portions for inspection. 

The “Overview of U.S. Wheat Inspection” describes the five basic operations performed at export before and during vessel loading: stowage examination; weighing; sampling; inspection; and certification.

Official weighing is mandatory for all grain exported from the United States by sea. FGIS integrates weighing systems into export elevator systems and supervises the entire weighing process. Results are documented and reviewed to certify the true weight of the cargo.

When a bulk vessel arrives at a U.S. export elevator, federal inspectors examine the ship’s holds for potential defects to ensure the vessel is substantially clean, dry, and ready to receive wheat and issue an official stowage examination certificate for the buyer.

By means of a standardized “diverter” mechanical device, FGIS inspectors in an onsite laboratory receive a consistent sample volume of wheat entering the elevator’s shipping bins, which is held until inspections are complete. After passing preliminary tests, the FGIS sample is divided into a “work” sample used to determine all grading factors and to inspect and certify other quality factors specified in the sales contract, and a “file” sample that FGIS keeps sealed for 90 days after wheat inspection.

Each sublot of grain must meet, within specified tolerances, the official grade and factors the buyer requests in their contract. Sublots that do not meet tolerances are not loaded into the vessel and are returned to the elevator. An inspection log is recorded for each sublot, providing a complete record of all inspection information that the buyer may request. Local USW representatives can help buyers adjust their future contract specifications based on this inspection data to ensure they receive the quality they need at the best price. The “Overview of U.S. Wheat Inspections” booklet online includes examples of all official certifications and logs the federally regulated U.S. grain inspection procedures generate.

USW Customer Support

USW strongly supports the unique U.S. grain inspection system as a competitive advantage to the world’s wheat buyers and makes an effort to demonstrate the integrity of the U.S. wheat supply chain in cooperation with the FGIS international affairs office. In addition to publishing the “Overview of U.S. Wheat Inspection,” USW and FGIS have conducted many inspection workshops for overseas buyers.

USW believes this wheat inspection training for importing customers gives them a deeper understanding of and increased trust in the FGIS inspection and certification process. The changes implemented in the mills following the training sessions should result in fewer discrepancies between the FGIS grade and the results of local, in-plant inspections, leading to increased satisfaction with U.S. wheat.

In cooperation with USW, FGIS agent José Robinson was in Lima, Peru, in 2019 to conduct half-day seminars for wheat importing companies. Robinson educated flour mill quality control managers on the FGIS wheat inspection process as part of USW’s trade and technical service activities.

Here are online resources for additional information:

USW Dependable People, Reliable Wheat Fact Sheet

Official Grain Inspection & Weighing System

USDA Grain Inspectors Work to Uphold America’s Reputation for Quality, Support New Markets

ATP Funds, FGIS To Help Train Importers to Recognize Wheat Grade Factors

 

/by
thumbnail

Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

 

Speaking of Wheat

“The agricultural equipment market is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advancements and changing agricultural practices. Innovations in precision agriculture, automation, and sustainability are transforming the industry, offering opportunities for growth and efficiency improvements. As farmers continue to embrace these technologies, the future of agriculture looks increasingly digital, connected, and sustainable.” – From “Agricultural Equipment Market: Innovations and Trends Shaping the Future,” CropLife.com.

Congressional Staff, USDA Visit Wheat Farm

The National Wheat Foundation (NWF) and Maryland farmer Eric Spates hosted a farm tour June 25, giving congressional staff and USDA officials to observe wheat harvest and discuss farm policy. One of NWF’s main tour goals is educating officials about the complex issues that affect farm families and the meticulous stewardship they practice to maintain a viable food production operation. Read more here.

Spring Wheat Conditions Remain Positive

The North Dakota Wheat Commission reports that the U.S. spring wheat crop is now 18% headed out, ranging from 11% in North Dakota to 44% in South Dakota, close to the 5-year average. Mild weather is helping the crop develop normally, a contrast to last year when hot conditions pushed crop development. Condition ratings remain high with 71% of the U.S. crop rated in good to excellent condition. That is down from 76% last week but compare that to 50% at this time last year. Read more here.

Responsible Plant Breeding Innovation

Agri-Pulse reports that seed trait developers are looking for ways to show they are using gene editing responsibly, including a management program for companies engaged in developing gene edited plant products, which involves altering plant DNA without introducing foreign genetic material. The Plant Breeding Innovation Management Program “establishes a common set of best practices as we address the diversity of varied regulatory frameworks around the world while embracing the opportunities presented by gene editing,” said the CEO of Global Stewardship Group (GSG), which developed the program. Read more here.

Historic Wheat Lines Yield Genetic Diversity for Research

An international study, published in Nature, has revealed that 60% of the genetic diversity found in a historic collection of wheat is unused, providing a unique opportunity to improve modern wheat and sustainably feed a growing global population. A collaboration led by the Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, China, together with United Kingdom research teams from Rothamsted and other institutions, studied the A.E. Watkins Landrace Collection, and compared those lines with modern wheats, helping facilitate wheat research and development. Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

/by
thumbnail
, , ,

Volatile Wheat Markets Highlight Unexpected Opportunities

In late May, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) reported on bullish wheat market sentiment, driven by adverse weather and changing supply and demand conditions. Since then, the volatility that has remained a constant in wheat markets for more than two years returned. From May 24 to June 21, CBOT, KCBOT, and MGEX wheat futures dropped 69 cents, 55 cents, and 58 cents, respectively.

Until global supply and demand is more defined, markets will remain sensitive to changes in weather, perceived consumption, and supply shifting events. However, the recent volatility may help illuminate unexpected buying opportunities for U.S. wheat.

Line chart shows volatility in the wheat market from March 2022 through May 2024

Markets have been volatile over the last few months. From May 24 to June 21, CBOT, KCBOT, and MGEX wheat futures dropped 69 cents, 55 cents, and 58 cents, respectively. Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report.

A Series of Trend Reversals

In March 2024, markets hit multi-year lows as ample wheat stocks from Russia and record Black Sea exports weighed on global wheat prices. Starting in April, the market’s “weather eye” saw drought conditions and severe frost damage in central and southern Russia prompting a reversal and prices rallied back to 2023 levels. Confirmed by the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the Russia production estimates decreased by 8.5 MMT on the year to 83.0 MMT, the lowest level since 2021/22. Likewise, persistent wet, cool weather and flooding decreased the European Union (EU) planted area and diminished French and German yield potential, resulting in a yearly decrease of 3.7 MMT to 130.5 MMT.

This world map from USDA shows changes in wheat production contributing to volatility in world markets.

The June WASDE decreased Russia production estimates by 5.0 MMT to 83.0 MMT, due to drought conditions and severe frost damage. Like wise, persistent wet, cool weather and flooding in the EU prompted USDA to decrease production by 1.5 MMT to 130.5 MMT. Source: USDA Wheat Outlook.

The June WASDE decreased Russia production estimates by 5.0 MMT to 83.0 MMT, due to drought conditions and severe frost damage. Like wise, persistent wet, cool weather and flooding in the EU prompted USDA to decrease production by 1.5 MMT to 130.5 MMT. Source: USDA Wheat Outlook

Adding further strain on the market, rumors began circulating that India may begin importing wheat, with stocks sitting at 7.5 MMT, the lowest in 16 years. In response to supply strains, wheat futures prices climbed throughout April and May, touching levels not seen since Fall 2023 and adding support to world cash values.

Meanwhile, on June 6, major world importer Türkiye announced a ban on wheat imports from June 21 through October to control domestic prices. Adding validity to the claims, the June WASDE reduced the Turkish import forecast from 10.5 MMT to 9.5 MMT. The announcement suggested weakened demand prospects and sent markets lower. Contributing to the new narrative, private analysts also suggested the impacts on Russian yields were not as severe as predicted. Furthermore, the U.S. production outlook now seems more favorable and harvest progress continues rapidly. As of June 23, 40% of the winter wheat crop is in the bin, while conditions in the remaining acres sit at 52%, up from 40% last year. Similarly, 71% of spring wheat rates good or excellent, a 21-point jump from the previous year.

The combined impacts of Türkiye, alleged improvements to Russia production, and the U.S. harvest has depressed prices, bringing them back in line with, or in the case of HRS slightly below, their position in March 2024.

Eyes Out for Opportunity

Despite the recent volatility, the spread between competing origins has narrowed over the last few weeks. According to AgriCensus price data, as of June 21, Russian, French, Romanian, and Soft Red Winter hovered in a narrow range between $230-$235/MT, a considerable decrease from the $17/MT spread between Russian wheat and the next cheapest origin noted in March. Likewise, Gulf HRW prices trend lower, with the June 21 U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report putting Gulf HRW with 11.5% protein at $243/MT, in line with German and Polish origins and only $12/MT above Russian prices, a much closer spread compared to a $67/MT difference observed in March 2024.

As U.S. wheat prices align more closely with other export prices, it presents a chance for international buyers to take advantage of the recent price trends. Supported by exceptional quality, a dependable supply chain, and unsurpassed customer service from USW colleagues, U.S. wheat offers an exceptional value.

This line chart shows the relationships and volatility in the global wheat market.

The June 21 U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report put Gulf HRW with 11.5% protein at $243/MT, in line with German and Polish origins and only $12/MT above Russian prices, a much closer spread compared to a $67/MT difference observed in March 2024. Source: AgriCensus Price Data and the U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report.

 

/by
thumbnail
, ,

U.S. Wheat Industry Stands to Benefit from North Dakota State University Expansion

Above photo: USW Secretary-Treasurer Jim Pellman; NDWC Board Member Jim Bahm; Past NDWC Chairman Greg Svenningsen; and past NDWC Chairman David Clough at the dedication of the Peltier Complex on the campus of North Dakota State University.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) brings multiple teams of bakers and millers from around the world to the Northern Plains each year to learn about spring and durum wheat production and research. New facilities for one of its biggest partners in the region are expected to improve that education and experience for international customers.

Two Separate but Related Facilities

North Dakota State University (NDSU) recently dedicated the new Peltier Complex, home of the school’s food science, cereal science, meat science, and bioprocess engineering programs. The Northern Crops Institute (NCI), the North Dakota Trade Office, and laboratories for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service are part of the new facility on the Fargo campus.

Visitors tour the new lab milling room that is part of the Peltier Complex.

Visitors tour the new lab milling room that is part of the Peltier Complex.

And, as NDSU was dedicating the Peltier Complex in mid-June, it was also hosting a groundbreaking ceremony for the Bolley Agricultural Laboratory, which will house agricultural research programs such as plant pathology, plant breeding, weed science, agronomy, soil science and horticulture. The new lab will be located on the western edge of NDSU’s campus and will overlook agricultural plots immediately adjacent to campus.

A Place to Create, Solve

Construction on the Bolley Lab is expected to begin later this summer.

“The Peltier Complex will be a facility unlike anything else we have ever constructed at NDSU,” said Greg Lardy, NDSU’s vice president for agricultural affairs. “It will be the largest single academic building project in NDSU history.”

The Peltier Complex will bring together scientists, teachers, and students to work on the development of new products and solutions. It also brings together farmers and their customers from international markets.

“Wheat farmers in North Dakota recognize the need for updated facilities that benefit NDSU’s wheat research, and also helps the North Dakota Wheat Commission and its partners continue to promote the high-quality wheat we grow in the state,” said USW Secretary-Treasurer Jim Pellman, a NDSU alumnus who earned a degree in Agriculture Economics from the school and today grows wheat on his family farm near McClusky, N.D. “The University’s impact on the wheat industry can grow with new laboratories and more space. The new bake lab and pasta lab, along with the new milling area, will be valuable assets when international teams are brought to North Dakota to learn about U.S. wheat.”

North Dakota State University held a ceremonial ribbon cutting in mid-June to celebrate the Peltier Complex, a state-of-the-art agricultural facility designed to better serve NDSU students and faculty, as well as the industry across the state and across the world.

North Dakota State University held a ceremonial ribbon cutting in mid-June to celebrate the Peltier Complex, a state-of-the-art agricultural facility designed to better serve NDSU students and faculty, as well as the industry across the state and across the world.

Wide Range of Support

Pellman was one of North Dakota Wheat Commission (NDWC) board members attending the Peltier Complex dedication. The complex is named for the Peltier family, longtime supporters of research and extension in agriculture. The family provided a naming rights gift to support private fundraising for the project. In addition to the Peltier family, gift commitments for the project come from commodity groups, including the NDWC and the NCI. Alumni, businesses, and friends of NDSU were also part of NDSU’s $455 million In Our Hands fundraising campaign.

The Bolley Agriculture Laboratory’s namesake, Henry L. Bolley, was one of the first faculty members at North Dakota Agricultural College, now NDSU.

“Like Bolley, our scientists who will occupy this building will deliver research results that make a difference to those involved in agriculture in North Dakota,” said Lardy. “They will develop better crop varieties for our unique climatic conditions, new solutions to challenging plant diseases, and better soil fertility and soil health management practices to improve the economic and biological sustainability of our agricultural production systems.”

 

 

 

 

/by
thumbnail
,

Where Can I Learn More About Sustainable Wheat Production?

Here in the United States, the topic of sustainable agriculture is getting a lot of attention. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) believes people everywhere want to know where their food comes from and how it is produced. The following facts and resources will help the world’s wheat buyers learn more about sustainable wheat production in the United States.

Stories of Stewardship

USW in 2024 has shared some of the impressive stories of stewardship in wheat production taking place across the country. In a new effort we call “Stories of Stewardship,” USW gathers resources the world’s wheat buyers, flour millers, bakers, and wheat food processors need to better understand how U.S. farmers produce more and better-quality wheat while using methods that are better for the planet we all share. This includes a video series that feature 5 farmers who tell their own stories of how they are managing their crop and land for our future.

U.S. Sustainability Alliance

To help tell the story of sustainable wheat production to the world, USW is a member of the U.S. Sustainability Alliance. That is a group of American farmers, fishery managers and foresters who want to tell the world “how we grow.” The group offers many resources for learning more about responsible food production, including a series of articles about how individual farmers approach sustainable production, including one about Jennie Schmidt, a Maryland farmer who recently traveled to Asia with USW.

A beneficial fact sheet titled “U.S. Wheat – A Global Leader in Sustainability” is also available from U.S. Sustainability Alliance and on the USW website.

Field to Market

Field to Market is an alliance of diverse member organizations formed to help “unite the supply chain to deliver sustainable outcomes for agriculture.” In December 2021, the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) shared about sustainable wheat production from Field to Market’s latest “National Indicators Report.” That report provides an assessment of “where U.S. agriculture has made progress in driving improved environmental outcomes.”

NAWG noted the report shows wheat production saw improvement in its sustainability efforts in almost every category of land use, soil conservation, water and energy use. Review the Wheat section of the Field to Market report online here and the entire report here.

Farm Bureau

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is a nationwide advocacy organization for U.S. farmers, including many wheat farmers and livestock producers. The organization has an interesting resource on “Sustainability in Agriculture.” AFBF co-founded the Food and Agriculture Climate Alliance and, to showcase the progress U.S. producers have made in achieving sustainability goals, also co-founded Farmers for a Sustainable Future.

AFBF’s President Zippy Duvall in 2022 wrote an important column pointing out some key facts about U.S. agriculture that may not be well-known. For example, he noted that “American agriculture makes up just 10% of greenhouse gas emissions, much lower than transportation, electricity generation and industry.” In addition, he said more than half the U.S. wheat corn, cotton and soybeans were planted using no-till or low-till methods.

USDA

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has important programs that benefit U.S. farmers and the environment. One example is the Conservation Reserve Program, which has a direct, positive impact on carbon sequestration. There are 140 million acres (56.7 million hectares) of privately owned land reserved from cultivation. In other words, that amount of land is more than the states of New York and California combined.

On September 2022, Secretary Vilsack announced USDA would be investing up to $2.8 billion in 70 selected projects under the first pool of the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities funding opportunity. On December 12, 2022, he announced $325 million would be invested in an additional 71 projects under the second funding pool. “Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities” supports farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners create market opportunities for U.S. agricultural and forestry products that use climate-smart practices. Some of these practices include cost-effective ways to measure and verify greenhouse gas benefits. Read more about this initiative here.

 

/by

Think Farm Export Programs Don’t Matter? Think Again.

GET THE REST OF THE STORY

DTN Wheat Detail
DTN Corn Detail

2008-2013 U.S. Wheat Associates. All Rights Reserved
Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Statement