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News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“It’s not what we did yesterday, but it’s the knowledge we accumulate today to make us better understand how to deal with (the market) and make more sales tomorrow.” – Gary Millershaski, Kansas wheat farmer, on his interactions with millers and wheat buyers during the recent USW Sub-Saharan Africa Board Team trade mission to South Africa and Nigeria. Read more here.

Minnesota Wheat Hires Sorenson as New Executive Director

The Minnesota Wheat Research & Promotion Council (MWRPC) and Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers (MAWG) have hired Brian Sorenson as executive director of Minnesota Wheat. Sorenson was raised on a wheat, barley and sugar beet farm near Fisher, Minn., and joins Minnesota Wheat after working as a program manager with Northern Crops Institute since 2018. “We’re thrilled to have Brian join our team,” MWRPC Chair Tim Dufault said. “His background and passion for agriculture make him a perfect fit for the goals of Minnesota Wheat and Minnesota wheat producers.” Sorenson, who earned a Master of Science degree in cereal chemistry from North Dakota State University, said he is looking forward to the role and the duties that come with it. “It’s very important that our producers have access to improved wheat varieties and cutting-edge farming practices for wheat to be a profitable crop in their rotation, but also to provide the quality and value expected by millers and bakers around the world,” said Sorenson, who begins his position on April 2. Read more here.

Brian Sorenson

Brian Sorenson will begin his new role as Executive Director of Minnesota Wheat on April 2.

Martin to Retire From NAEGA on March 31

Gary Martin is retiring March 31 as President and CEO of the North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA). Martin, who has been in the role since June 2000, has also served as the President of the International Grain Trade Coalition. His many industry leadership activities include service with the U.S. Food and Agriculture Dialog for Trade, the Canada-U.S. Grain and Seed Trade Task Group and the Board of Directors of Soy Export Sustainability LLC. Alejandra Castillo will succeed Martin as NAEGA President and CEO. Castillo brings 15 years of industry experience having worked previously as regional director for South Asia based in Singapore and India. Most recently she served as director of global programs in Washington, D.C. for the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) and before that, worked in trade execution for Cargill.

Gary Martin (left) is retiring at President and CEO of the North American Export Grain Association.

Gary Martin (left) is retiring as President and CEO of the North American Export Grain Association on March 31.

Number of U.S. Wheat Farms Declined 40% in Last 20 years

Since 2002, the total number of wheat farms in the U.S. fell by more than 40%, according to a new USDA report. The number of wheat farms went from 169,528 in 2002 to 97,014 in 2022. Also, “wheat production is down slightly, but has been variable year to year,” USDA reported. “Annual wheat production ranged from about 1.6 billion bushels in marketing year 2002/2003 to as much as 2.5 billion bushels in 2008/2009. Notably wheat production has not topped 2.0 billion bushels from 2017/2018 to 2023/2024.” Much of the decline in U.S. wheat production has been the result of lower area harvested, which dropped from 56 million acres in marketing year 2008/2009 to a low of 35.5 million acres in 2022/2023, the report notes. Area harvested has remained below 40 million acres from marketing year 2017/2018 through 2023/2024. Read more here.

WSU Wheat Breeders Put Royalties to Work

Established more than a decade ago, Washington State University’s (USW) licensed wheat royalties are helping improve farm facilities, train the next generation of scientists and growers, and, for the first time this year, enhancing grower assessments to address wider research priorities, the Washington Grain Commission (WGC) reports. “Royalties have become a critical source of support for public wheat breeding programs,” Rich Koenig, chair of the recently established WSU Grain Royalty Advisory Committee, said. In May of 2012, the WGC supported a WSU-sponsored initiative to license its future wheat variety releases. Working with the commission, WSU established a royalty of 2 cents per pound of certified seed sold. That charge is in the low-to-middle range compared to similar wheat-releasing institutions. Read more here.

U.S. Miller Surveys Consumers on Purchase Trends

In a report titled, “Trend to Table,” Ardent Mills identified key trends in purchasing decisions through a survey of adult U.S. consumers. The U.S. flour miller surveyed more than 10,000 consumers over the age of 18 for their thoughts on food purchasing decisions. Trends include an increased focus on sustainability, traceability, and nutrition. The company has also noted a growing interest in plant-based and specialty grains, as well as a shift towards locally sourced ingredients. Read more here.

 

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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Over the last year, world wheat prices have trended steadily lower, continuing their fall from the highs hit in May of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Ample wheat stocks from Russia and record exports flowing from the Black Sea continue to weigh on global wheat prices.

The average world FOB price has decreased $32/MT from the start of 2024 and is nearly $255/MT less than the May 2022 high, according to AgriCensus price data. Although the war still rages in Ukraine, the war risk premium has eroded in the market, allowing prices to revert to pre-war trends. The following will outline the current price situation and highlight factors to watch as wheat markets align with long-term trends.

This chart shows how export prices for wheat from several suppliers spiked following the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine but have now returned to long-term trends.

World FOB prices have reverted to pre-war levels, weighed by low-priced exports flowing from the Black Sea. The average world FOB price has decreased $32/MT from the start of 2024 and is close to $255/MT below the May 2022 high. Source: AgriCensus.

A Return to Pre-War Levels

Although there is a sharp contrast between the current downward trend in global wheat markets and the volatility observed over the last year, wheat prices have fallen more in line with long-term trends. Current world FOB prices hover between $200 and $300/MT on average, in line with price levels from 2018 to 2020. Although the spread between origins is still larger than pre-war averages, the spread has narrowed over the last year. According to AgriCensus and U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report data, in Jan. 2023, U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat sold for $347.96/MT FOB, while Russian wheat (12.5% on a dry moisture basis) was loaded at $308/MT FOB, a nearly $40/MT spread. Jumping ahead to March 21, 2024, U.S. SRW is quoted at $216.24/MT FOB, while Russian FOB indications sit at $204/MT, down to a $12/MT spread, similar to spreads seen throughout 2019 and 2020.

Factors to Watch

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is monitoring several factors at work in the global wheat market. Even before Russia’s invasion in Feb. 2022, global price levels were beginning to rise. Wheat use jumped 5% to a record 787 MMT in 2020/21, exceeding production by 14.0 MMT. The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates still put the 2023/24 global wheat consumption 11.0 MMT above production, further tightening stocks. Likewise, the stocks-to-use ratio, excluding China, is forecast to tighten to 20% in 2023/24, the lowest since 2007/08, while early estimates from the International Grains Council predict a decrease in global ending stocks to 57.0 MMT in 2024/25.

This bar and line chart shows the relationship between world wheat production and use is on an upward trend from 1999 through 2024.

From 2014/15 to 2017/18, world wheat production exceeded consumption, increasing world ending stocks to a record 297.6 MMT in 2019/20 and a stocks-to-use ratio of 25%. In 2018/19, global wheat consumption began to outpace production, eroding ending stocks and tightening global balance sheets. Source: USDA PSD.

Looking ahead to marketing year 2024/25 and beyond, a continued decline in world-ending stocks and the tightening stock-to-use ratio may have a bullish influence on price trends. However, in the short term, global wheat markets remain well-supplied, and the ongoing flow of wheat from Russia, the Black Sea, and the EU weighs on prices.

This line chart from USDA shows the relationship between crop and input price indexes suggest farmer profit margins are much lower today compared to 2000.

At the 2024 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer indicated that output prices are falling faster than input prices, leading to tighter margins, and reducing profitability for U.S. farmers. Source: USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum.

While decreasing wheat prices benefits importers, the current situation poses unique challenges for U.S. wheat farmers. According to Seth Meyer, USDA Chief Economist, input price trends lag as the output prices fall, resulting in tighter profit margins and reduced sector profitability for wheat and other row crops. Tighter margins put additional pressure on U.S. farmers, and long-term profitability can influence production trends and planting decisions. Nevertheless, U.S. farmers planted wheat before the war and will continue to produce a range of high-quality wheat classes as markets revert to pre-war norms, ensuring a reliable supply of wheat for the world’s importers.

By Tyllor Ledford, USW Market Analyst

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“Farmers have a unique perspective of longevity and sustainability because our livelihoods depend on it, as do
our kids’ livelihoods, and their kids,” Aaron Kjelland, a wheat farmer in Park River, North Dakota, says.

Kjelland and his family’s farm is featured in Episode 6 of U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) “Stories of Stewardship” video series. Watch the episode below to learn why wheat has been a cornerstone of Kjelland’s diversified operation for generations.

 

USW’s new video series focuses on the sustainable practices applied by five farm families growing different classes of wheat across the range of conditions in the United States. They share a commitment to farm in ways that sustain economic viability to produce safe, wholesome wheat for the world while ensuring the land is passed on in better condition for future generations.

USW wants to thank Kjelland; Art Schultheis of Colton, Washington; Nick Jorgensen of Ideal, S.D.; Tom Cannon of Blackwell, Okla.; and Ben and Stephanie Bowsher of Harrod, Ohio for sharing their stories. To see previous episodes of the series, visit Stories of Stewardship.

To learn more about sustainable U.S. wheat production, visit the USW website at https://www.uswheat.org/stories-of-stewardship/. USW is also a member of the U.S. Sustainability Alliance where you can see a fact sheet on wheat sustainability.

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Kansas wheat farmer Gary Millershaski summed up the 10-day Sub-Saharan Africa Board Team trade mission with a perfect sentence to describe U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) efforts on the African continent.

He said, “It’s not what we did yesterday, but it’s the knowledge we accumulate today to make us better understand how to deal with (the market) and make more sales tomorrow.”

Millershaski joined Ohio wheat farmer Bill Schroeder and Oklahoma wheat farmer RJ Parrish on the trip. The mission was led by USW Director of Programs Catherine Miller. The team was connected to millers and wheat buyers in South Africa and Nigeria by USW-Cape Town Programs and Marketing Specialist Domenique Opperman and USW Regional Director Chad Weigand. Among the stops was the PepsiCo flour mill in Malmesbury, South Africa. Next was the Premier mill in Durban, South Africa. On a tour of Premier, the USW team up with Shawn Thiele, Associate Director and Flour Milling and Grain Processing Curriculum Manager at the IGP Institute at Kansas State University. Thiele walked the team through wheat milling processes being used by millers in the market.

A long flight to Nigeria followed. There, the farmers met with millers who purchase U.S. wheat and toured facilities. Nigeria is an established customer and the U.S. has been one of the top wheat suppliers over the past decade. However, pricing has impacted exports in recent years.

USW’s Sub-Saharan Africa Board Team trip follows participation by Idaho wheat farmer and USW Vice Chairman Clark Hamilton in USDA’s first-ever U.S. agribusiness trade mission to Angola, another promising market in Africa.

Hear from the farmers to learn more about their experiences in South Africa and Nigeria in the short video below.

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Wheat quality improvement is at the heart of the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) mission to enhance the value of U.S. wheat for overseas customers and profitability for U.S. wheat producers. Improved quality makes U.S. wheat more competitive in global markets and, in turn, increased demand benefits producers at home.

USW cooperates with stakeholders across the domestic and international industries to encourage U.S. wheat quality improvement.

Active Participation

Activities include past Wheat Analysis Program and Wheat Quality Improvement Teams (WQIT) designed to help U.S. wheat breeders better understand the most important quality characteristics overseas customers need and encourage them to incorporate them as new varieties are developed.

The Wheat Analysis Program gathers input on wheat quality from key customers and returns that information to U.S. wheat breeding programs, demonstrating the U.S. industry’s willingness to listen and exchange ideas with customers. The teams also determine key messages to bring back to the U.S. industry and incorporate into their respective breeding programs.

To facilitate the program, USW sends export-quality flour samples of U.S. wheat to the UFM Baking School in Bangkok, Thailand, where buyers from the South Asian region evaluate the samples, under the supervision of the USW regional baking consultant. Quality control personnel conduct rheological and end-use quality tests at UFM and complete a standardized questionnaire to provide specific feedback to U.S. breeders on the quality characteristics and varieties preferred by overseas customers.

Group of U.S. wheat breeders participating in a Wheat Quality Improvement Team in Latin America in 2018.

USW brought a team of U.S. wheat breeders to Latin America in 2018 (here in Mexico) as part of a Wheat Quality Improvement Team (WQIT) activity to exchange quality information with customers in the region.

The WQIT activity directly connects wheat breeders with overseas millers and bakers in their countries. In 2023, USW combined a Wheat Analysis Program event with a WQIT activity in Bangkok, Thailand. Two dozen customer representatives from 13 regional flour mills attended the Wheat Analysis Program to compare the quality of U.S. wheat flour performance in end-products to local standards. Wheat breeders from four public universities and one private company on the WQIT observing the Wheat Analysis Program comparisons heard directly from end-users how the wheat class and varieties performed, and which wheat quality characteristics end-users prefer. The customers also gained an understanding of the U.S. wheat industry’s longer-term commitment to improve quality and consistency of supply.

Promoting Quality at Home

USW and other wheat organizations also promote the importance of wheat quality improvement to farmers. For example, USW also puts wheat quality improvement in the spotlight at producer meetings.

In addition, the National Wheat Foundation conducts the National Wheat Yield Contest every year. USW helps fund milling and baking quality testing on winning entries to ensure they meet specific grade and quality standards.

Wheat quality is part of preferred wheat variety listings.

PNW Preferred Wheat Variety listing for 2023. Read more here.

Other efforts include developing Preferred Variety Lists (PVL), which rank wheat varieties by quality and help wheat producers make informed decisions based on quality outcomes and yield potential.

Published PVLs from state wheat commissions in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho have helped improve soft white wheat quality for many years,” said Steve Wirsching, USW Vice President and Director, West Coast Office.

The Montana Wheat and Barley Committee (MWBC) recently published a new Spring Wheat Varieties guide that includes a Wheat Quality Index score measuring such quality attributes as flour yield, water absorption, stability time, and loaf volume tested at Montana State University’s Wheat Quality Laboratory.

In its Guide, MWBC recommends farmers choose the variety with a higher score when deciding between two varieties with similar agronomic characteristics and yield potential. MWBC emphasized this “can make a critical difference to buyers who are creating a wide range of wheat-based products.”

“Grain Craft, a private milling company, also publishes a PVL for hard red winter wheat, which is influencing variety selection in the Central Plains states,” Wirsching added.

Read more information from the Wheat Quality Council and from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

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Editor’s Note: The following excerpts appear with permission from an article by Michelle Smith was published in “World Grain” on March 11, 2024. 

Because the quality and attributes of flour can vary by season and variety, it’s important for bakers to understand what works best in their products. One tool that can help them determine flour quality is Solvent Retention Capacity (SRC) testing, said Sean Finnie, director of the Western Wheat Quality Laboratory with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agricultural Research Service.

He spoke about SRC testing at the American Society of Baking’s BakingTech 2024 conference, held Feb. 27-29. He is part of a team that works to improve wheat quality by identifying desirable traits, testing for them and working with breeders to enhance those traits.

“The way I see bakers using SRC data is the ability to make a profile of the flour you want,” Finnie said. “I think inherently bakers can look at and touch dough and know when something’s wrong. … If I were a baker, I would look at SRC data as a way of quantifying the inherent ability that you could just touch and feel when those are off, but you’ll know some issues before you actually make the dough.”

Photo of Sean Finne speaking to BakingTech in 2024 about solvent retention capacity testing.

Sean Finnie, director of the Western Wheat Quality Laboratory with the USDA’s Agriculture Research Service, spoke at BakingTech 2024 in Chicago, Ill. He is part of a team that works to improve wheat quality by identifying desirable traits, testing for them and working with breeders to enhance those traits. Credit: ©SOSLAND PUBLISHING CO.

If bakers have a particular wheat flour they like, solvent retention capacity testing would provide the flour properties of that wheat and could help bakers make a profile of it.

“You can customize what your profile is and help identify attributes that make the flour more consistent from lot to lot,” Finnie said.

Read the rest of the article in World Grain at https://www.world-grain.com/articles/19724-using-src-testing-to-improve-wheat-quality.

Scientists at the federal wheat quality labs are using SRC to determine how well new and existing U.S. wheat varieties will perform in the mill and bakery. As a service to its wheat milling and baking customers, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) provides a range of technical support that is unmatched in the global wheat trade. One of the most valuable is helping customers apply solvent retention capacity to better predict the true performance characteristics of flour for biscuits (cookies), crackers and cakes, as well as many hard wheat flour applications.

A Reflection of Functionality

More specifically, SRC examines the glutenin, gliadin and pentosan characteristics of the flour, and the level of starch damage in the flour. These values describe the flour’s ability to absorb water during the mixing process and its ability to release that water during the baking process. The combined pattern of the four SRC values establishes a practical flour quality profile useful for predicting functionality and how flour products conform to specifications.

USW is showing millers how to use SRC to analyze flour streams to maximize quality while minimizing costs. For bakers, such testing ensures they are using the best possible flour for their products.

In 2020, USW asked cereal chemist Art Bettge to go into more depth on how millers and bakers can use and interpret SRC results to add value to their processes and products. A cereal chemist with more than 40 years of experience at the USDA Agricultural Research Service Western Wheat Quality Laboratory in Pullman, Wash., and in his ADB Wheat Consulting business, Bettge recorded an in-depth video presentation.

Watch Bettge’s entire presentation from the 2020 USW Crop Quality Seminars below. USW technical staff also shared their recommended Solvent Retention Capacity profiles for cookie and cracker products online. And most importantly, USW representatives in 13 offices around the world, are always ready to help our customers, through technical support and trade service, making buying U.S. wheat a rewarding experience.

Header Photo Copyright © Chopin Technologies.

For additional information, visit: https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/2021-Solvent-Retention-Capacity-Recommendations.pdf.

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News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

 

Speaking of Wheat

We are always looking for improved varieties because we continue to face economic and agronomic challenges. High yields are great until they’re laying on the ground due to wheat stem sawfly, disease, or something else. I evaluate varieties and if they all perform similarly in the field, I’m going to choose the variety that performs the best for the end user.” Montana wheat farmer Charlie Bumgarner, quoted in the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee’s first preferred variety recommendations on hard red spring wheat varieties. Read more here.

Thanks to Texas Wheat Executive

Rodney Mosier

Rodney Mosier recently celebrated his 40th anniversary with the Texas Wheat Producers Board and Association. Rodney was hired at Texas Wheat on Feb. 23, 1984, as the Executive Assistant to then-Executive Vice President Bill Nelson. Upon Nelson’s retirement, Rodney was named Executive Vice President of Texas Wheat on April 1, 1998. During his career, Rodney has been highly involved with U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), serving on various committees, traveling overseas, and helping facilitate foreign trade team visits to Texas, including the 2023 COFCO Team in the photo at the top of this page.

 

NAWG Elects New Officers

The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) elected Keeff Felty as President during their 2024 Annual Conference in Houston, Texas. Felty is a fourth-generation farmer in the Altus area of Oklahoma. In addition, NAWG directors elected Pat Clements of Kentucky as Vice President, Jamie Kress from Idaho as Treasurer, and Nathan Keane of Montana as the new Secretary.  Read more here.

Expanding Rail System in Kansas

The Kansas Department of Transportation’s Rail Service Improvement Program (RSIP) will invest nearly $16.5 million on 17 short line rail expansion and rehabilitation projects to improve its agricultural supply chain. State funding for the 17 projects will be enhanced by a 30% match from each recipient, including major grain handlers such as The Scoular Co. and Viterra USA, resulting in a total rail infrastructure investment of more than $23.5 million. Read more here.

Wheat Census Data: Comparing 2022 to 2017

According to USDA’s 2022 Census of Agriculture released Feb. 13, 2024, of the 1,900,487 farms in the United States, 96,950 farms produced wheat with a total sales value of $88.51 billion. Compared to the 2017 Census of Agriculture, the number of farms producing wheat declined 8% but the sales value of wheat production increased by almost 58%. Learn more about the 2022 Census of Agriculture here.

U.S. Agriculture Produces Far More with Less Inputs

U.S. farm output nearly tripled from 1948 to 2021. The increased productivity is widely agreed to be the top contributor to the economic growth of U.S. agriculture. These data are presented in the Summary of Recent Findings released by the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS). ERS also reports that technological advancements such as animal and crop genetics, chemicals, equipment, and farm organization were the main drivers of continuous output growth without additional inputs. Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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As March begins, world wheat markets look to new information that may provide a glimpse into what the 2024/25 marketing year brings. As northern hemisphere winter wheat crops break dormancy, weather becomes increasingly important. Meanwhile, southern hemisphere farmers shift their focus to spring crops and the winter wheat planting season.

While world crop updates will help provide a snapshot of global wheat production and latest conditions over the next few months, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is taking this early look at how the 2024/25 world wheat crop is shaping up.

USDA world map showing the current state of major crops around the world including world wheat.

In March, much of the world wheat crop will enter its vegetative state in the northern hemisphere. Although, it is not as sensitive to heat and temperature stress in this stage, conditions can still influence the crop’s yield potential. Source: USDA Monthly Crop Stage Calendar.

Southern Hemisphere

The southern hemisphere planting program generally begins in April and continues through August, with harvest occurring between October and February, depending on the specific latitude. For marketing year 2023/24, the harvest is complete, with near-final production numbers available for major wheat-producing. Over the last month, Australia and Argentina have benefited from scattered showers and warm weather, boosting yield potential for summer crops, and helping replenish soil moisture for winter wheat planting. Looking ahead, weather analysts predict the potential for a rapid transition from an El Niño weather pattern to a La Niña event between June and August, which will impact weather patterns in the latter half of 2024.

This interactive image shows the predicted transition from an El Nino to La Nina global weather phenomenon that will impact world wheat production.

Climate models anticipate that the El Niño weather event will dissipate between April and June, with potential for a rapid transition into another La Niña weather cycle, influencing the 2024/25 wheat crop in the southern hemisphere. Source: NOAA.

Argentina – The 2023/24 wheat harvest is complete in Argentina, with USDA production estimates at 15.5 MMT, up 3.0 MMT from the previous year. Production is much improved from drought the year prior, though it still sits 12% below the five-year average.

Australia – USDA put Australian wheat production at 25.5 MMT, while the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) estimate was 26.0 MMT for 2023/24. ABARES projected that the 2024/25 harvest may reach upwards of 28.4 MMT due to increased precipitation expected from the transition into a La Niña weather pattern.

Northern Hemisphere

Due to the large geographic area and delineation between winter and spring wheat, northern hemisphere crop calendars vary significantly by region. Winter wheat is generally planted between September and November, while harvest runs from the south to the north from through September. Spring wheat planting typically begins in April and wraps up in June, while harvest can start in July and finish in September. Although the region is geographically diverse, recent weather has been relatively mild across the northern hemisphere; however, winterkill remains a concern in areas with low snow coverage following a cold snap in January.

Canada– The Canadian Grain Commission puts 2024 production at 33.9 MMT. Despite a decrease in acreage from 10.9 million hectares to 10.7 million hectares, the commission expects production to increase on normalized weather and alleviated drought pressure. However, moisture deficits remain in the wheat-producing provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Much of the crop has not yet been planted, but Statistics Canada will release its crop intentions report on March 11.

This map of Canada shows current drought conditions as of Jan. 31, 2024.

Long term moisture deficits persist in some of the wheat producing regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan after the drought in 2023/24, a factor to watch moving into 2024 harvest. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.

United States – For harvest in 2024, USDA forecasts total winter and spring wheat planted area at 47.0 million acres (116.1 million hectares), down from 49.6 million acres (122.5 million hectares) in 2023. The USDA Prospective Plantings Report on March 31 will provide additional insight into U.S. wheat plantings. The USDA Grains and Cereals Outlook put U.S. 2024/25 production at 51.7 MMT. Weather remains generally warm in the U.S. Plains, helping winter wheat transition from dormancy.

EU – The EU planted area sits at a four-year low, down 3% to 23.3 million hectares. Wet fall weather inhibited some farmer’s ability to plant in France, Germany, and Poland. Some private analysts have 2024/25 EU production estimates at 142.3 MMT. The weather has been warm and dry in western Europe, contrasting cool and wet weather in the east.

Russia – Private analysts forecast Russian production at 87.7 MMT for 2024/25, while Russian government analysts put output at upwards of 93.0 MMT. Mild weather and above-average precipitation have prevailed across much of Russia, although a cold snap may have slowed crop development in the Volga region.

Ukraine – Similar to Russia, the weather has been warm, accelerating winter wheat transition from dormancy. Estimates are Ukraine has planted approximately 4.2 million hectares for the 2024 harvest, down from 4.4 million hectares last year.

This map of Europe, North Africa, and western Russia indicates temperatures in February 2024 were generally warmer than normal with effect on world wheat production.

Weather has been warmer than normal throughout Europe, accelerating crop development and aiding in spring fieldwork. Source: JRC MARS.

Today’s recap is only a snapshot of the current world wheat situation, which will change as the 2024/25 crop develops and enters different stages of production. As always, weather will ultimately dictate where final production numbers will land. Until then, buyers can look to U.S. Wheat Associates and its state wheat commission members for up-to-date information on crop conditions, weather, and the global supply and demand situation.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

 

 

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“Everybody’s always cared for the land, but now we have tools available that we never had 50 years ago,” explains Art Schultheis, a fifth-generation farmer from Colton, Washington. Schultheis, who harvested his 40th wheat crop last year, is transitioning his son into the role of “sustainable wheat farmer.” But he remains firmly on the job. Through techniques like direct seeding into crop residue or using extremely precise applications of fertilizers, Schultheis has become a master at using the new tools available to him. Learn about Schultheis and his farm in Episode 5 of U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) “Stories of Stewardship” series:

 

USW’s new video series focuses on the sustainable practices applied by five farm families growing different classes of wheat across the range of conditions in the United States. They share a commitment to farm in ways that sustain economic viability to produce safe, wholesome wheat for the world while ensuring the land is passed on in better condition for future generations.

USW wants to thank Schultheis, Nick Jorgensen of Ideal, S.D.; Tom Cannon of Blackwell, Okla., Ben and Stephanie Bowsher of Harrod, Ohio.; Art Schultheis of Colton, Wash.; and Aaron Kjelland of Park River, N.D. for sharing their Stories of Stewardship.

The next episode will be released  March 20.

To learn more about sustainable U.S. wheat production, visit the USW website at https://www.uswheat.org/stories-of-stewardship/. USW is also a member of the U.S. Sustainability Alliance where you can see a fact sheet on wheat sustainability.

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To misquote Mark Twain, reports of the death of agricultural negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO) are exaggerated. That is a key message for the world’s wheat growers and buyers following the Thirteenth WTO Ministerial Conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. In the WTO photo above, Director General Okonjo-Iweala encouraged members to close remaining gaps to secure outcomes during the Conference.

“Going into MC13 negotiations, we did not want to see any backsliding on past progress made on agricultural commitments at the WTO,” said U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman, who joined a coalition of U.S. agricultural representatives at the Conference. “Fortunately, the U.S. negotiating team and many other countries were able to hold firm, particularly against India’s protection of its trade-distorting wheat and rice policies.”

On Feb. 29, 2024, during the Ministerial, Politico Pro trade reporter Doug Palmer provided additional background about the agricultural negotiations.

“The U.S. farm groups contend India’s me-first approach is a non-starter because the “peace clause” agreed in Bali has allowed it to accumulate huge rice and wheat stocks that it buys at above market prices and then sells into world markets at a discount,” Palmer wrote. “They also argue there is a much older mandate for a broad-based negotiation in the 1994 WTO Agriculture Agreement that includes trade-distorting domestic support and market access barriers that countries impose to keep out farm exports.”

For more information about U.S. wheat industry positions on WTO agricultural policy, visit “USW Trade Policy Team Addresses India’s Subsidies, Turkish Flour at WTO.”

Members of a U.S. agricultural coalition met during the WTO MC13 with USTR Chief Ag Negotiator Doug McKalip in February 2024.

USTR Chief Agricultural Negotiator Doug McKalip met with U.S. agricultural industry representatives at the WTO 13th Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi in February 2024. Representatives included (L-R) Peter Laudeman, U.S. Wheat Associates: Molly O’Connor, CropLife America; Ambassador McKalip; Maria Zieba, National Pork Producers Council; Karah Fissel, USA Rice; Sharon Bomer Lauritsen, AgTrade Strategies, LLC; Tony Rice, National Milk Producers Federation; and Ben Conner, DTB AgriTrade.

Shared Interests

Laudeman would agree with U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Ambassador Katherine Tai‘s post-conference statement that, “Members have worked to identify shared interests and build convergence in a collaborative way. Members are identifying new ideas and improvements that can help all of us more effectively resolve disputes and make the system more accessible at the same time.”

The U.S. government negotiating team including USTR Chief Agricultural Negotiator Doug McKalip deserves credit for holding the line on the issues in agriculture said Laudeman who also noted that support existing commitments is more widespread than in the past.

Opportunity to Advance Negotiations

“Many countries that agreed that India’s firm stance on Public Stockholding (PHS) was not productive in advancing agricultural negotiations at the WTO,” Laudeman said. “Notably, many Least Developed Countries recognized that India’s PSH program had negatively affected their own food security.”

Ambassador Tai went on to say that while the United States is disappointed that WTO members were not able to reach consensus on agriculture, “the United States will continue to engage with other Members to achieve meaningful outcomes on these important issues.”

“The message for our wheat farmers and our customers around the world is that the WTO is not broken yet,” Laudeman said. “And we are still standing up for commitments that have been made and creatively looking for progress in the way forward.”