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VIDEO: U.S. Wheat Supply Chain Put in Focus for Korean Bakery Product Development Team

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Bakery Technologist David Oh recently led a team of managers from South Korea through a Bakery Product Development Course at the Wheat Marketing Center in Portland, Oregon. The week-long educational seminar focused on six products made with classes of U.S. wheat, allowing the team to see how the quality of U.S. wheat helps bakers create better end products.

The team also visited the Thomas Dierickx farm to meet U.S. wheat farmers and learn about their production practices, and toured the Marsee commercial bakery and a Fred Meyer market in Portland.

Hear USW’s Luke Muller talk about the team’s visit and see scenes from each stop in this short video . . .

 

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Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

 

Speaking of Wheat

“As most of you know, I am retiring May 31, 2024. As I prepare to embark on a new journey, I wanted to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude to each and every one of you. It was wonderful working within the USW family, as I grew up with this family, and it has been an incredible experience that I will always cherish. I am truly grateful for the support and friendship that I have received … during my almost 39 years of service. The memories will always hold a special place in my heart. I am so blessed to have you all in my life for so many years.”

– Ms. Mina El Hachimi, Senior Administrative Consultant, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Casablanca. Happy retirement, Mina!

K-State Welcomes Next Grain Science Department Head

Kansas State University College of Agriculture has announced that Joseph Awika (photo, right) has accepted the position of department head of grain science and industry, and director of the IGP Institute, a USW educational partner. Awika joins K-State from Texas A&M University, where he has been food science and technology department head. He earned his undergraduate degree at Egerton University, Kenya, and a doctoral degree in food science and technology from Texas A&M. Read more here.

Canadian Gene-Edited Wheat Research

Agriculture Canada has announced it is testing gene-edited wheat in a greenhouse at its Lethbridge (Alberta) Research and Development Centre. The goal is to produce spring wheat lines with greater ability to receive and use sunlight, according to an Alberta Farmer Express article. Gunter Jochum, president of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association is pleased with the development. “I think it’s fantastic. It’s good for our industry and it is exactly what’s needed going forward,” Jochum said.

New Ardent Mills CEO

The board of directors of U.S.-based Ardent Mills has appointed Ms. Sheryl Wallace as CEO effective July 8. Wallace most recently served as president, U.S. origination and grain, at Cargill and has been an Ardent Mills director since 2020. This leadership transition comes as Ardent Mills’ current CEO, Dan Dye, announced his retirement earlier this month, following a decade of service in his role. Read more here.

Planned Precision Ag Research Center Focused on Sustainability

Ground was broken recently for a $160-million state-of-the-art precision ag research center, a partnership between the USDA, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and Nebraska Innovation Campus (photo at top of this page). It will bring together multidisciplinary experts to research and develop new technologies to address some of agriculture’s biggest challenges with a focus on promoting sustainable, resilient, and highly efficient agriculture practices. The Nebraska Wheat Board is a member of U.S. Wheat Associates. Read more about the new research center. Read more about precision agriculture in wheat production here.

New U.S. Wheat Crop Sales

Joel Karlin, DTN Contributing Analyst, shared the chart below showing old and new U.S. wheat crop export sales as a percentage of USDA’s estimates. Karlin said starting with new crop, current sales for the 2024/25 marketing year beginning June 1 are 120 million bushels (3.27 million metric tons), which is 15.5% of the first USDA wheat export projection for the new marketing year. That is the second highest percent since the 2016/17 season. Read more here, and follow current and new crop U.S. wheat commercial sales here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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VIDEO: New Ideas for Wheat Foods Shared During China End Product Collaborative Workshop

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) China Country Director Shirley Lu and Technical Specialist Ting Liu recently led a team of managers and buyers from  China Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) on a visit to the Pacific Northwest to explore new wheat food products. The USW China End Product Collaborative toured Loren Berhman’s wheat farm in Cornelius, Oregon, and retail bakeries in the Portland area. The team also participated in a workshop hosted by the Wheat Marketing Center. The workshop offered opportunities for team members to make and evaluate end products such as muffins, biscuits, bagels, bread, sponge cake, and pancakes using different classes of U.S. wheat.

“They were here really to identify new products and new ways to use U.S. wheat,” USW Vice President and West Coast Office Director Steve Wirsching said. “The great thing is that we were able to share with the team a lot of different new ideas for products, and also provide them some good information on all classes of U.S. wheat. At the same time, we were able to learn a lot about their needs and what they are looking for when it comes to buying wheat.”

See scenes from the visit and learn more about the USW-sponsored team in this short video.

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USW Work in Bangladesh Designed to Develop Market for HRS and Other Wheat Classes

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is continuing an effort to build demand for U.S. wheat in Bangladesh, where flour mills have recently expressed interest in importing more wheat with stronger gluten for a variety of end products enjoyed by the country’s 171 million consumers.

This month, USW Assistant Regional Director Joe Bippert and Dr. Shahidul Islam, Wheat Quality Specialist at North Dakota State University (NDSU), travelled to the South Asian country to meet with millers and wheat food manufacturers.

USW Assistant Regional Director Joe Bippert and Dr. Shaheed Islam, Wheat Quality Specialist at North Dakota State University (NDSU), visited some of the largest flour mills in Bangladesh.

USW Assistant Regional Director Joe Bippert and Dr. Shahidul Islam, Wheat Quality Specialist at North Dakota State University (NDSU), visited some of the largest flour mills in Bangladesh.

Seeking Stronger Wheat

“Bangladesh has relied primarily on Canada to source higher protein wheat, but recent pricing opportunities allowed U.S. hard red spring (HRS) to enter the market showing mills the value of superior performance associated with a spring wheat with stronger gluten,” Bippert said. “We saw an opportunity to introduce Dr. Islam, an HRS wheat expert who is Bangladeshi and can speak the local language. We toured mills and met with millers, explaining the unique characteristics of HRS wheat and exploring opportunities to become a more consistent wheat supplier, even in a competitive price market.”

Dr. Shahidul Islam and Joe Bippert gain insight into Bangladeshi flour milling in May 2024.

Bippert (right) and Islam (left) had discussions with millers about the quality and value of U.S. wheat, along with the availability of six different U.S. wheat classes.

A small volume of U.S. HRS wheat has moved to Bangladesh so far this marketing year. Bippert and Dr. Islam’s visit was the latest attempt to grow the market.

In September 2023, USW Regional Vice President for South and Southeast Asia Joe Sowers participated in the Bangladesh Wheat Foods Summit, an event organized by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). An FAS initiative to conduct a market assessment of the Bangladeshi wheat food end-products industry inspired the summit.

Sowers was invited to present on USW’s work, the six U.S. wheat classes, and the benefits of U.S. wheat as an ingredient in Bangladeshi wheat foods.

Gaining Insight

Bippert’s recent visit provide insight into the assortment of products coming out of bakeries in Bangladesh, and how U.S. wheat could fit as a primary ingredient. A meeting with the nation’s largest cookie and cracker manufacturer included discussions about how U.S. soft white and soft red winter wheat could not only lead to improved product quality, but also create value due to U.S. wheat’s lower moisture content than what comes with supplies from the Black Sea region.

“It’s been a tough market that has been up and down, but we are very excited about Bangladesh and its potential,” Bippert said. “The country is a significant world wheat importer. And we believe that bringing in world class technical experts like Dr. Islam will help us develop the market and increase sales.”

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K-State Breaks Ground on Global Center for Grain and Food Innovation

Kansas State University has launched a project that will bring together two of its strongest agricultural programs under one roof.

The university held a groundbreaking ceremony on May 17 for the Global Center for Grain and Food Innovation, to be located just off the corner of Claflin Road and Mid-Campus Drive. The new building is estimated for completion in Fall, 2026.

It will also bring faculty and staff from the departments of animal science, food science, and grain science together, allowing them to work side-by-side on more projects.

Enhancing Milling and Bakery Science Education

K-State’s Department of Grain Science and Industry offers the country’s only undergraduate degrees in milling science, bakery science and feed and pet food processing – and in fact, is one of only a few in the entire world to do so. The department reports a 100% job placement rate in those degree programs.

Hulya Dogan, interim department head for grain science, said the Global Center for Grain and Food Innovation will be the new home for her department’s faculty and staff, replacing the aging Shellenberger Hall. On May 20, K-State announced that Dr. Joseph Awika has accepted the position of Grain Science and Industry department head.

For students, Dogan said, the new building will contain “the latest technologies so that they are able to enter the workforce immediately after graduation.”

Sharing space on the K-State campus not far from where the new Center will be located is the Kansas Wheat Innovation Center, built by the Kansas Wheat Commission, through the Kansas wheat checkoff, to get improved wheat varieties into the hands of farmers faster. It represents the single largest research investment by Kansas wheat farmers in history. IGP Institute and the Hall Ross Flour Mill are also part of the K-State training and teaching services, familiar to many overseas U.S. wheat buyers through U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) export market development activities.

Ambitious Plan

Ernie Minton, the Eldon Gideon Dean of K-State’s College of Agriculture, said the center is the third groundbreaking in the university’s Agriculture Innovation Initiative, a multi-year push to upgrade and expand facilities in grain, food, animal and agronomy research. When completed, the Agriculture Innovation Initiative is anticipated to top $210 million raised from a combination of state, private and university funds.

The Global Center for Grain and Food Innovation “is part of an ambitious plan to make Kansas State University the Next-Generation Land Grant University,” Minton said. “We want to be the example of what a land grant university should be in the 21st century.”

Ernie Minton, the Eldon Gideon Dean of K-State's College of Agriculture, provides remarks during the groundbreaking ceremony for the Global Center for Grain and Food Innovation, May 17 in Manhattan, Kansas.

Ernie Minton, the Eldon Gideon Dean of K-State’s College of Agriculture, provides remarks during the groundbreaking ceremony for the Global Center for Grain and Food Innovation, May 17 in Manhattan, Kansas.

K-State President Richard Linton called May 17 “a big day for the College of Agriculture, a historic day for K-State, and a transformational day for Kansas agriculture and our agriculture and food industry stakeholders.”

“Get ready,” he said. “Things are going to look and feel different at Kansas State University. Our agriculture impact locally and globally will reach new heights because of this project.”

Linton pointed to the entirety of the Agriculture Innovation Initiative, which will create four new buildings and three remodeled spaces.

“These facilities will support cutting-edge research and learning,” Linton said. “We will have interdisciplinary lab spaces and areas dedicated to helping foster partnerships with industry. Students can expect larger, more accessible classrooms outfitted with the latest technologies and suitable for remote learning. There will also be unique learning spaces, like the arena pavilion, a pilot plant and a test kitchen.”

Learn more about K-State’s Agriculture Innovation Initiative at www.k-state.edu/ag-innovation.

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Initial 2024/25 Estimates Add to Bullish Market Sentiment

Topping off a volatile, weather driven week, the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), released on May 10, 2024, forecast a tighter global wheat balance sheet and decreased production in several major wheat exporting countries. Moreover, USDA foresees factors that contribute to bullish market sentiment. It expects both world production and consumption to reach record levels in 2024/25, with consumption outpacing production for the sixth time in the past seven years.

The recent updates supported an already bullish market sentiment. From April 18 to May 10, Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures jumped from $5.53/bu to $6.63/bu on the day of the report’s release, and on May 28 July CBOT futures were up over $7.00/bu. The following highlights key factors to watch from the initial 2024/25 estimates and outlines the potential implications for the new crop.

This bar and line chart shows USDA data relationships between world wheat production and use from 15/16 to 24/25.

USDA expects that both global production and consumption will hit record highs in 2024/25 at 798.2 MMT and 802.4 MMT, respectively. Consumption also outpaces production for the sixth time in the past seven years. Source: May WASDE.

Mixed Outlook in Major Exporters

The outlook for production levels in major exporting countries is variable for 2024/25. The May WASDE projects an increase in total wheat production; however, production in major exporting countries stays relatively steady, declining by just 200,000 MT to 321.0 MMT.

Following reports of dryness and potential frost damage in Russia, USDA decreased Russian production to 88.0 MMT, the lowest level since 2021. Similar weather-related issues led to a 2.0 MMT decrease in Ukrainian wheat production to 21.0 MMT. USDA also lowered EU production estimates by 2.2 MMT year-over-year to 132.0 MMT as heavy rains and flooding degrade crop conditions, particularly in major exporter France, contributing to bullish market factors.

Nevertheless, increased production in the United States, Canada, and Australia offset the reductions. U.S. wheat production estimates sit at 50.6 MMT, up 1.3 MMT from last year, but 1.1 MMT below the USDA Outlook Forum estimates. Canadian production increased 2.1 MMT to 34.0 MMT on normalized weather, while Australian production rose 3.0 MMT to 29.0 MMT in anticipation of an upcoming La Niña weather event.

Notably, India and China registered the largest production increases, at 3.5 MMT and 3.4 MMT, respectively; however, their output does not influence exportable supplies.

This bar chart shows USDA's data on wheat supplies in 7 major exporting countries from 15/16 to 24/25.

Production in major exporting countries is projected to remain relatively steady, declining by just 200,000 MT to 321.0 MMT. Source: May WASDE.

Tighter Stocks in 2024/25

The initial outlook for the 2024/25 balance sheet points to a bullish market trend. Global wheat consumption may exceed production by as much as 4.2 MMT, further tightening stock levels. As a result, 2024/25 ending stock level estimates decrease to 253.6 MMT, a 4.2 MMT reduction from the year prior, and the lowest level since 2015/16. Major exporter ending stocks are forecast 8% lower at 52.6 MMT, while the global stocks-to-use ratio, excluding China, is expected to tighten to 18%, down 1 point from the year prior and the lowest since 2007/08.

This bar and line chart shows USDA data relationships between world wheat production and use from 15/16 to 24/25.

Global wheat consumption may exceed production, further tightening stock levels. As a result, 2024/25 ending stock level estimates decrease to the lowest level since 2015/16. Likewise, the global stocks-to-use ratio, excluding China, is expected to tighten to its lowest since 2007/08. Source: May WASDE.

Stay Tuned for Updates

Looking ahead to marketing year 2024/25 and beyond, the weather and global production outlook will ultimately dictate wheat availability and quality, while a continued decline in world-ending stocks may have a bullish market influence on future price trends.

However, in the short term, prices will stay volatile in response to rapidly changing conditions and news. As always, it is important to remember that the May estimates are the initial projections for 2024/25 and are subject to change as more information becomes available. In July, USDA will release the first estimates for U.S. wheat production and exports by class, in addition to more detailed global production information. As the Northern Hemisphere harvest continues, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) remains dedicated to providing dependable and up-to-date information for buyers, millers, and end users alike.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford.

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Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“I think, overall, the earliest [U.S. spring wheat] seeded … in the first and second week of April looks good. I don’t see any stand problems. We’re going to see a little bit of drown-outs with some standing water in the fields. The crop that got seeded late, in the third week of April, especially in the Southern [Red River] Valley, is all … popping out of the ground now so I think we’re in good shape.” – University of Minnesota Small Grains Specialist Jochum Wiersma.

Chinese Bakery Team Workshop

A recent U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Bakery Products team from China hosted by the Wheat Marketing Center completed markets surveys to better understand the wide variety of wheat products in the U.S. market. They were very interested in frozen dough products like bagels and biscuits that can be baked in an air fryer of particular interest because most Chinese households do not have an oven.  This adaptation of U.S. formulations with frozen doughs could create new markets for these products made with US origin wheats. The team also travelled to Oregon’s North Willamette Valley for a visit to Loren Behrman’s farm (photo above).

USW China wheat Products Collaborative workshop at Wheat Marketing Center.

A USW-sponsored Chinese End Product Collaborative team met at the Wheat Marketing Center in early May. Here USW colleagues Ting Liu (right foreground) and Shirley Lu (back right) work with members of the team on frozen dough for bagels.

Additional FY 2024 Export Credit Funds Available Under GSM-102

On May 15, 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced increased availability of export credit guarantees for sales of U.S. agricultural commodities under the Commodity Credit Corporation’s (CCC) Export Credit Guarantee Program (GSM-102) for fiscal year 2024. Total available funds are $3.34 billion. Further details of the announcements may be found at:  https://www.fas.usda.gov/programs/export-credit-guarantee-program-gsm-102/gsm-102-allocations.

K-State Innovation Center to Start with Additional Funding

Kansas State University announced on May 8 that ADM has pledged $1 million to the university’s Global Center for Grain and Food Innovation, one of four new or renovated facilities included in the university’s visionary Agriculture Innovation Initiative led by the College of Agriculture. There will be a groundbreaking ceremony for the facility May 17. With a focus on interdisciplinary research and development, 30% of the Global Center’s space will be allocated for public and private collaboration. It also will include modern milling and baking research and teaching laboratories and classrooms. Read more here.

HB4 Drought Tolerant Wheat Offered to Argentine Farmers

Reuters reported May 15 that Bioceres Crop Solutions has begun sales of HB4 genetically modified (GM) wheat seeds in Argentina, the first time the technology has been commercially available to farmers anywhere in the world according to CEO Federico Trucco. Trucco told Reuters that after years of tests followed by planting under pilot agreements between Bioceres and a small number of farmers, the company has started distributing seeds to agricultural input retail companies in the South American country. “Hopefully we can have it available in Brazil as well, in one or two seasons,” Trucco said. Read more here. Also read more about the U.S. wheat industry position on biotechnology.

Image from the World Food Prize Foundation shows 2024 Laureates by the Arctic seed vault they established.2024 World Food Prize Laureates Established Global Seed Vault

Dr. Geoffrey Hawtin OBE of the U.K. and Canada and Dr. Cary Fowler of the U.S. will share the $500,000 award for their work to preserve the world’s heritage of seeds. The two men played key roles in establishing the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, which today holds 1.25 million seed samples of more than 6,000 plant species in an underground facility in the Arctic Circle. The repository, often referred to as the “Doomsday Vault,” opened in 2008 and stands as the last line of defense against threats to global food security, including pandemics and climate catastrophes. Read more here.

Dam Breaching Article Series

The Idaho Wheat Commission shared a link recently to a series of three articles in the Idaho Dispatch online news outlet examining “The Ramifications and Reality of Breaching the Dams of the Pacific Northwest.” Buyers who source U.S. soft white, hard red winter, and hard red spring wheat from PNW ports will benefit from understanding the competing political and commercial interests behind this topic. At stake is the current efficient barging of wheat from interior Idaho and Washington.

Potential Canadian Rail Strike a Threat to All Ag Shippers

The Agricultural Transportation Working Group representing U.S. farm organizations including the National Association of Wheat Growers has urged Canadian government officials to take “swift action” to avoid the Canadian rail strike that could begin as soon as May 22. “A rail stoppage would lead to shutdowns or slowdowns … resulting in devastating consequences to national and global food security,” the groups said in a letter released by the National Grain and Feed Association. “Our memberships rely on freight rail to move essential products across Canada and the U.S., and a disruption to CN and CPKC’s rail service could ripple across North America.”

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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2024 Wheat Tour Sees Higher Yield Potential Amid Variable Conditions

Even with variable crop conditions, the 2024 Wheat Quality Council (WQC) Hard Winter Wheat Tour has estimated a total weighted average yield of 46.5 bushels per acre (bu/a) across its annual tour routes in Kansas with swings into southern Nebraska and northern Oklahoma. The tour yield estimate is up significantly from its 2023 estimate of 30.0 bu/a.

Valuable Insight

Sixty-nine participants this year from government, universities, media, grain trade, millers, bakers, and farms stopped at 449 fields to evaluate yield potential and crop conditions.

Photo shows Peter Laudeman in a wheat field with a yardstick during the 2024 Wheat Tour.

USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman.

“The tour has provided valuable insight into this year’s crop,” said Peter Laudeman, Director of Trade Policy, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) who participated in the tour along with his colleague Luke Muller, Assistant Director, West Coast Office. “Overall, the crop is looking stronger than the last two, uncharacteristically low production years, but it remains to be seen how far above that bar we will get when harvest is complete.”

Largely because of continuing short rainfall, the crop is developing at a faster pace than normal. Experienced crop observers and farmers participating in the wheat tour believe harvest in south-central Kansas could start in early June. That is up to 10 days ahead of average.

“The tour scouts reported wide variability depending on planting dates, moisture, and impact from pests and disease,” Laudeman said, illustrated by the two wheat fields seen at the top of this page. “Stripe rust was notably present across a large swath of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska counties where there is still a window for applying disease control products to limit yield loss. Wheat Streak Mosaic, a viral disease, is another concern to assess. We also saw freeze damage in many fields in southwest and south-central Kansas on the second day.”

Derek Sawyer, who farms near McPherson in east-central Kansas, told Kansas Wheat that although there have been multiple stresses across the state, “we are still looking at a decent crop. That is a testament to the wheat breeders and researchers and the work they have done.”

In 2024, farmers in the wheat tour area will harvest more fields compared to high abandonment in the severe 2023 drought.

“Last year, we only harvested about 200 of the 1,400 acres that we had planted, and those did about 20 bushels an acre,” Hoisington, Kan., farmer Dean Stoskopf told DTN/Progressive Farmer. “So far this year, we’ve still got all our wheat. Some is decent. Some is so-so.”

Tour organizer and WQC Executive Director Dave Green told DTN/Progressive Farmer that through the second day of the tour the crop looked better than drought conditions would have indicated.

“It seemed like, ‘Yes, we certainly need rain in a lot of areas,’ but I was surprised how not every field was drought-stressed and really looking like it’s in trouble,” Green said.

“I would really emphasize how crucial the spotty rain showers the past couple weeks were for those farms fortunate to receive them,” Luke Muller said. “The heat units and moisture in the next month will really determine how the crop gets across the finish line.”

Even with the tour’s higher-than-expected estimated yield estimate, there was muted pressure in the U.S. futures markets. July hard red winter wheat futures closed on May 16 at $6.73 per bushel, down only 1.6 cents from May 15. Significant cuts in Russia’s wheat yield estimates, including by SovEcon likely made the difference. The analyst this month lowered its 2024 Russian wheat production forecast by 7.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 85.7 MMT due to dry conditions and freeze damage in Central and Southern Russia.

The Wheat Quality Council each year emphasizes that the scouts’ estimated yield potential is only a snapshot of the crop during the week of the tour. The primary goals of the wheat tour are to make connections within the wheat industry, allow participants to meet wheat farmers, observe the growing crop, and to highlight the agriculture industry.

 

 

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U.S. Organizations Have Allied to Provide Much-Needed Mental Health Resources for Farm Families

A communications professional group of which I am a member recently shared information about a topic that is difficult, but vitally important to continue U.S. wheat’s promise of “Dependable People, Reliable Wheat.” It is mental health and other wellness issues for wheat farm families and within their rural communities who make up the U.S. wheat supply system.

In this “Wheat Letter” blog, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) usually focuses on practical information about the quality and value of U.S. wheat and supporting services.

It is also important for customers to understand that farming is a stressful way of life with increasing challenges. Multiple studies show that farmer suicide rates are up to five times higher than the national average. Natural disasters, extreme weather events, financial uncertainty, fluctuating markets, labor shortages, trade disruptions, and other factors all contribute to extreme stress or mental health issues for farmers and ranchers who often live in a very isolated setting.

Mental Health Safety Net

At a recent online discussion, the U.S.-based Farm Foundation and American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) introduced their work to provide crucial mental health services to those dependable people who supply wheat to the world. The organizations are part of a landmark alliance launching free, anonymous, mental health and wellbeing services to provide a nationwide safety net of confidential and on-demand mental health support to farmers, ranchers, and farm families. Unveiled at the AFBF 2024 Convention in January 2024, the Farm Family Wellness Alliance (FFWA) provides solutions to build farm family wellness and access to an understanding community.

That access is provided in this alliance through Togetherall, a safe, clinically moderated peer-to-peer community, where members around the world are there to listen, support and give members’ mental wellbeing a boost. Through an anonymous profile, users can access a global network of peers, backed by the safeguarding of licensed clinicians overseeing the community around-the-clock.

Learn More

The FFWA is hosting a webinar May 21, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. U.S. Central Time to share more information on “Togetherall” resources available to farm families across the country. This webinar is open to all organizations, associations, and individuals involved in agriculture who want to learn more about supporting farm family well-being. Registration is required and may be accessed here.

USW cares deeply about the farm families we represent, the people who protect the quality and integrity of U.S. wheat in the export system, and our customers around the world. We applaud organizations like Farm Foundation, AFBF, and others that are working to provide such mental health services. And we encourage anyone who is experiencing anxiety, depression, or other stresses to seek the help you deserve.

By USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer

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Key Market Mover: Weather Developments Generate Wheat Price Rally

Across the Northern Hemisphere, wheat price and crop development are dominating market discussion. Soon, the first harvests of the 2024/25 crop year will provide more concrete information on supply availability and quality. Until then, weather conditions will play a crucial role in global grain markets as winter wheat enters late growth stages and spring wheat planting progresses.

USDA map of the world shows large agricultural regions in green and comments about crop conditions in each region.

In May, the Northern Hemisphere winter wheat crop reaches critical stages of crop growth, while spring wheat planting is underway. During sensitive development stages such as heading and flowering, wheat is more susceptible to weather related stress, which may negatively affect yield potential. Source: USDA FAS.

Although world wheat prices were trending steadily lower over the last year, shifting weather patterns have prompted a recent reversal. Since April 18, 2024, the July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures contract has surged from $5.53 per bushel to $6.87 per bushel as of May 13, reaching its highest level since August 2023 (ProphetX chart image at the top of this page). Following is a look at recent market-moving weather developments and factors to watch as the 2024 harvest approaches.

Weather Swings Bring Attention to Russia

In the past month, varied weather conditions have raised concerns about the Russian wheat production outlook. Recent reports from Sovecon indicated that from mid-March to mid-April, moisture levels in southern Russia were 60% to 80% of normal and minimum temperatures were 2°to 4°C above average. Meanwhile from May 3 to 5, central and southern Russian crop growing areas suffered from severe frosts, potentially affecting the development of wheat, sugar beets, and other crops. Media sources reported air temperatures as low as -4.6 °C (23.7 °F) and soil temperatures near -5 °C (23 °F).

Map of Russia showing major agricultural regions where wheat is grown in green.

Weather fluctuations have raised concerns about the Russian wheat production outlook. The combined impact of dryness throughout southern Russia’s growing areas and severe frosts in central and southern Russia prompted IKAR analysts to reduce its production estimates by 5.0 MMT to 86.0 MMT. Source: USDA FAS.

The combined impact of dryness and severe frosts prompted IKAR analysts to reduce their production estimates by 5.0 MMT to 86.0 MMT. Similarly, the May USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADE) predicted a 3.5 MMT drop for 2024/25 Russian output year over year. Throughout 2023 and early 2024 the large supplies of Russian wheat flooded the world market and depressed prices, highlighting the sizable influence Russia projects on global grain markets. Therefore, lower yield potential in Russia would have a significantly bullish impact on global prices.

Variable U.S. Conditions

On the domestic front, the overall outlook for the U.S. Southern Plains remain more optimistic as moisture levels and drought conditions improve. However, over the last few weeks, dry and variable conditions have raised concerns regarding 2024 production prospects. In Kansas, the largest HRW producing state, crop conditions have deteriorated rapidly, going from 57 percent good to excellent on February 25 to only 31 percent good to excellent by May 12. Likewise, conditions have worsened in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas due to windy and dry weather.

The persistent lack of moisture in parts of the Southern Plains may keep wheat prices elevated, but nevertheless, improving conditions in other areas and the potential for timely rains in drought afflicted regions could offset the impact. Overall, U.S. conditions still remain much improved from 2023, with 50% of all winter wheat rated good to excellent.

Results of the Wheat Quality Council’s Hard Winter Wheat tour May 14 to 16 will have their own, if brief, impact on futures prices.

Expect Increased Volatility

Until the crop reaches maturity and harvest begins in the Northern Hemisphere, weather will heavily influence futures markets. In the short term, prices will stay volatile in response to rapidly changing conditions and news. For up-to-date information regarding the current crop conditions and harvest outlook, look for the weekly USDA Crop Progress Report and the U.S. Wheat Associates Harvest Report. Also, watch the next “Wheat Letter” for discussion on the newest changes to the May WASDE and the first glimpse of what the 2024/25 marketing year will bring.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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