Northern Durum Archives - U.S. Wheat Associates

Shifted Trade Flows: Black Sea Durum Enters the Global Market

World durum supplies were tight early in marketing year 2023/24 as drought in the Middle East and Canada and quality issues in the European Union (EU) decreased durum availability and put upward pressure on global durum prices. However, as the marketing year continued, non-traditional durum exports from Russia and Türkiye began flooding markets with low-priced durum, weighing on global durum values.

The following will evaluate the current world durum situation and provide an initial outlook for marketing year 2024/25.

Tight Situation in Major Exporters and Importers

International Grains Council (IGC) data indicated that global durum production decreased by 10% to 31.4 million metric tons (MMT) in 2023/24, and consumption exceeded production by 2.6 MMT, leading to a tight durum balance sheet. In Canada, the world’s largest exporter, durum production fell 30% to 4.0 MMT due to drought in the primary growing areas, as reported in the Canadian Outlook for Principal Field Crops. In the EU, a drought in Spain reduced output, resulting in total EU production of 7.0 MMT, 7% below the previous year, according to IGC. Simultaneously, harvest rains in Italy compromised durum crop quality. As a result, EU durum imports rose by 26% to 3.4 MMT.

The combined impact of decreased durum availability and the increased import requirements supported world durum prices throughout the final quarter of calendar 2023 and into the early months of 2024. In October 2023, French durum prices hovered at $428/MT, U.S. durum (photo above) at $467/MT, and Canadian durum at $450/MT, as reported by IGC, U.S. Wheat Associates, and AgriCensus.

This bar and line chart indicates the relationships and changes in world durum ending stocks, production and consumption from 2015 through projected data for 2025 from the International Grains Council.

Global durum production decreased by 10% to 31.4 MMT in 2023/24, and consumption exceeded production by 2.6 MMT. Meanwhile, ending stocks sit at their lowest level of the last decade at 4.9 MMT. Source: International Grains Council.

Rise of Non-Traditional Exporters

As major exporters’ balance sheets remained tight, Türkiye shifted from a net durum importer to a major exporter. Turkish durum production rose by 15% to a record 4.3 MMT in 2023/24, on a higher planted area and sufficient growing season moisture.

The combination of favorable prices, above-average production, and export focused domestic support programs prompted the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to authorize the sale of 150,000 MT of durum on February 1, 2024, at prices quoted below market values. On March 7, TMO offered an additional 150,000 MT of durum but canceled the offer as the quoted prices were too low relative to domestic price levels. Nevertheless, Turkish durum exports were estimated at 1.7 MMT for the year as prices remain ultra-competitive relative to other origins. Meanwhile, Stratégie Grains forecasted Russian durum production at 1.3 MMT, with exports projected at 800,000 MT, a 60% increase on the year.

The influx of low-priced Turkish and Russian durum has eroded world durum prices. As of April 16, French durum prices sit at $375/MT, U.S. near $351/MT, and Canadian at $360/MT, down $53, $116, and $90 from October’s prices, respectively.

This bar chart including data from Strategie Grains compares changes in durum exports in 2024 compared to 2023 for 7 countries.

As major exporters’ balance sheets remained tight, Türkiye shifted from a net durum importer to a major exporter. Turkish durum production rose 15% to a record 4.3 MMT in 2023/24. As a result, Turkish durum exports were projected to reach 1.7 MMT. Source: Stratégie Grains.

Will The Patterns Hold?

IGC forecasts a recovery in world durum production in 2024/25 to 34.6 MMT on favorable weather in Canada, EU, and Türkiye. Current estimates suggest Turkish durum production will remain strong in 2024/25 at 4.5 MMT, while exports may exceed 1.0 MMT. It is unknown if Türkiye will rise as a long-term durum exporter, but balance sheets are comfortable in the immediate future.

This line chart compares the elevator bids for US durum compared to hard red spring wheat from 1/1/22 to 4/1/24 indicating higher prices for durum.

Favorable prices for durum relative to spring wheat may incentivize producers to substitute durum acres for HRS, particularly in non-traditional durum growing areas. As of April 16, the average country elevator bid for durum sits at $7.51/bu, a significant spread compared to $6.07/bu for HRS. Source: DTN ProphetX Grain Elevator Bids.

Nevertheless, in the current lower-priced market, U.S. durum remains competitive. U.S. durum exports are up 36% on the year at 504,000 MT on increased imports from Algeria. Moreover, the 2024/25 durum area is forecast to increase by 300,000 acres (121,400 hectares) to surpass 2.0 million acres (809,400 hectares) for the first time since 2018/19. Favorable prices for durum relative to hard red spring (HRS) wheat may incentivize producers to substitute durum acres for HRS, particularly in non-traditional durum growing areas. As of April 16, the average country elevator bid for durum sits at $7.51/bu, a significant spread compared to $6.07/bu for HRS.

The U.S. has and always will be a stable producer and exporter of durum. As world markets shift and adjust, the U.S. has remained a constant supplier, providing reliable, high-quality supplies of durum and other wheat classes on which customers worldwide can rely.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

April 17, 2024/by Steve Mercer

Crop Quality Report, Hard Red Spring, Hard Red Winter, Northern Durum, Soft Red Winter, Soft White, Wheat Quality

Farmers, Industry Leaders Travel the Globe to Share Crop Quality Information

A month-long effort that had U.S. wheat farmers and industry experts presenting the 2023 Crop Quality Report to customers in more than two dozen countries is winding down with a collective sense of accomplishment.

It is believed at least one attendance record was set this year.

The annual series of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Crop Quality Seminars, which provide crucial information to customers and provide an opportunity for wheat buyers to interact and create a dialogue about the quality of the wheat crop, began in Sub-Saharan Africa on Nov. 1. Seminars in Central America/Caribbean and South Asia beginning soon after. Seminars in South America, the European Union and North Asia wrapped up on Nov. 20.

Only two dates remain: Seminars will take place in Dubai on Dec. 5 and Casablanca on Dec. 7.

Large Attendance

“The large attendance we saw this year highlights how much our customers value U.S. wheat’s timely and transparent information,” said USW Marketing Analyst Tyllor Ledford, who participated in her first Crop Quality Seminar. Ledford presented at the South Asia seminars (see photo above), which took place in the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand. “Throughout the three seminars, we were able to reach customers from Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. The seminar in Bangkok was the largest on record, with nearly 140 participants.”

Attendance was strong throughout the 2023 Crop Quality Seminar series including here in Seoul, South Korea.

Producers Cory Kress (Idaho) and Aaron Kjelland (North Dakota) presented on New Technologies in Agriculture and Planting Decisions for Farmers. Likewise, U.S. country elevator managers Jason Middleton and Tyler Krause provided a presentation about grain origination and how it is handled at the first point of sale, in addition to by-class perspectives from exporters.

“The farmers and wheat buyers were happy to reconnect with familiar faces they had seen on trade team visits to the U.S. and other events,” said Ledford.

Positive Feedback

Erica Oakley, USW Vice President of Programs, said there has been a lot of positive feedback from each of the seven regions where Crop Quality Seminars were held.

“Our customers around the world have complimented U.S. wheat staff and presenters from our partner organizations,” said Oakley. “We had a lot of good information to share, so credit goes to the U.S. farmers who produced a high-quality wheat crop.”

Mexico

USW’s Mexico City Office hosted more than 225 participants representing flour millers and wheat buyers from Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela.

China

The North Asia Crop Quality Seminar team traveled to Suzhou, China, and presented to about 160 flour millers, wheat buyers, and baking industry representatives. Guest of note included Ms. LaShonda McLeod Harper, Director of the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Agricultural Trade Office in Shanghai, and the senior COFCO Wheat Department Manager Mr. Sun Wei who had just participated in a USW-sponsored trade team visit for COFCO managers to the United States.

About 160 wheat buyers, flour millers, and baking industry executives participated in the 2023 USW Crop Quality Seminar in Suzhou, China.

Japan

Montana wheat farmer Denise Conover greets Japanese wheat industry executives at the 2023 USW Crop Quality Seminar in Tokyo, Japan.

In Tokyo, Japan, 130 customers attended a Crop Quality seminar. Attendees included flour milling companies from across the region, Japanese traders, grain inspectors and members of the media.

“The participants were very satisfied with the presentations and engaged them in active discussions and questions to gain a deeper understanding of the quality of this year’s U.S. wheat crop,” said Rick Nakano, USW Country Director in Japan.

South Korea

A total of 90 participants, including customers from the flour milling and food processing industries, attended the seminar held in Seoul, South Korea. It was the first in-person seminar held in South Korea in three years.

“Customers expressed great satisfaction with the on-site Crop Quality Seminar,” said USW Country Director Dong-Chan “Channy” Bae. “Notably, despite the typically reserved nature of Korean attendees, there was an engaging discussion on the market, wheat quality, and logistics during a question-and-answer session.”

South America

Seminars in South America attracted a good number of customers, reports USW Regional Director Miguel Galdos.

“In the seminar held in Cali, Colombia, participants represented 30% of total wheat imports in Colombia,” he said. “Meanwhile, in Bogota, more than 35% of total wheat imports were represented.”

USW Regional Director Osvaldo Seco welcomes participants to a 2023 Crop Quality Seminar in South America.

USW Assistant Regional Director Osvaldo Seco welcomes participants to a 2023 Crop Quality Seminar in South America.

A seminar In Quito, Ecuador, drew companies accounting for at least 90% of U.S. wheat imports. The same can be said for seminars in Lima, Peru, and Santiago, Chile – both saw more than 90% of U.S. wheat purchases represented.

Sub-Saharan Africa

USW’s Cape Town Office conducted Crop Quality seminars in Nairobi, Kenya; Lagos, Nigeria; and Cape Town, South Africa. Presenting quality data from the 2023 harvest were Dr. Senay Simsek, Department Head for Food Science at Purdue University; Charlie Vogel, Executive Director of the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council; and Royce Schaneman Executive Director of the Nebraska Wheat Board.

Simsek presented on Solvent Retention Capacity (SRC) and industry analyst Mike Krueger presented via video on the world supply and demand situation for grains.

In Nairobi, USW also conducted a demonstration at the African Milling School using soft red winter (SRW) and hard red winter (HRW) for local products, such as chapati and mandazi.

By Ralph Loos, USW Director of Communications

November 22, 2023/by Steve Mercer

durum, Hard Red Spring, Hard Red Winter, Northern Durum, Wheat Foods

Video: USW Sponsors International Pasta Producers at Comprehensive NCI Course

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) brought a dozen pasta production specialists from around the world to North Dakota for a Northern Crops Institute (NCI) course designed to provide a better understanding of U.S. wheat and how wheat quality affects pasta quality. The course also helped attendees understand that, while pasta production is focused mostly on semolina from durum, pasta can be produced with other classes of U.S. wheat, such as hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS).

The course took place a full two months before the upcoming World Pasta Day, which is Oct. 25. But the folks at NCI could argue they experienced a World Pasta Week – participants in the Aug. 21-25 course came from Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, Mozambique, Chile, Mexico City, Honduras, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.

This short video produced by NCI features participants talking about the opportunity. It also features USW Regional Technical Director Peter Lloyd, who offered the course valuable insight into optimal milling processes for pasta.

October 8, 2023/by Ralph Loos

durum, Market and Crop Analysis, Northern Durum, Wheat Industry News

Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“Amidst the backdrop of diverse perspectives and conflicts of our times, farmers continue planting seeds of sustenance and resilience, stewarding the land for generations, and producing a safe and reliable food supply. The values of integrity, honesty, and care we see in agriculture offer a model for achieving sustainable progress in society and industries, ensuring that resources are managed in ways that benefit present and future generations. Farmers are at the heart of this truth.” – Jim Britt, Director of Communications, Maine Department of Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry. Read more here.

World Wheat Production Ends Record Run

USDA reported this week that following 3 years of record production 2023/24 global wheat production is now forecast down as year-over-year reductions are forecast in the EU, Russia, Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. Total wheat use has now exceeded production for 4 years running and tightening supplies in these major exporters puts exportable supplies at their lowest level in 11 years. Analysts suspect this bullish note will not spark a rally in part because USDA also reduced global wheat use estimates. Read more here.

WASDE Turns 50

USDA on Sept. 12 celebrated the 50^th anniversary of its “World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates” or WASDE report. The report was established in September 1973 to “give the public the timeliest analytical information available officially from the Department.” Commenting on the report, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said: “This work behind the scenes gets attention in this moment, but then gets analyzed and utilized for weeks on end and helps to establish the market prices …” It is important for trade and global competition, he added. The U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Supply and Demand report is based and expands on the monthly WASDE report. Listen to Vilsack’s comments here.

Wheat Disease Impact Much Lower in 2022

According to an analysis by the Crop Protection Network, disease in 2022 reduced wheat production by 3.6% in surveyed U.S. states and by 1.9% in Ontario. Overall reduction in 2022 was less than half that of any other year of data collection (2018-2021), and percentage losses were also much lower than previous years. Total estimated yield loss in 2022 from wheat disease in the U.S. and Ontario was 55.7 million bushels, valued at nearly $500 million. This does not include the economic costs of disease management practices such as fungicide seed treatment or foliar application, crop scouting, and development of disease-resistant varieties. Read more here.

This grid pattern represents the percentage of wheat production in 2022 by U.S. state and the Canadian province of Ontario among the states and Ontario surveyed by the Crop Protection Network for an analysis of disease yield impact.

Brabender Introduces New Farinograph

According to a company statement, Brabender has introduced a new “FarinoGraph” that offers new features, the latest technology, optimized user friendliness and more. Farinograph is used to determine water absorption capacity of flour and the rheological properties of dough. “Measurements with the new “FarinoGraph” are now even more automated and timesaving,” said Viktor Schäfer, Brabender business development manager software solutions. “For instance, we have implemented an artificial intelligence based on previous measurements to predict the measurement curve and added a function to save measurement time.” Read more here.

Pellman Makes Rounds with USW Policy Team

The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) brought more than 20 wheat farmers to Washington, D.C. Sept. 12-13 for its annual fall “Fly-In.” The effort included two days of meeting members of Congress. Led by the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Trade Policy team, USW Secretary/Treasurer Jim Pellman joined his fellow wheat farmers at the Capitol to voice support USDA’s Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program, as well as the American Farmers Feed the World Act of 2023.

Pictured with Jim Pellman (far right) are Oklahoma farmer and NAWG Vice President Keeff Felty (left) and North Dakota Congressman Kevin Cramer (center) .

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September 14, 2023/by Ralph Loos

durum, Market and Crop Analysis, Northern Durum, Wheat Industry News