Several wheat buyers from China, Dr. Byung Kee Baik, USW staff stand in front of the directory at the ARS Soft Wheat Quality Lab in Wooster, Ohio.

The purchase by China of 1.12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat for delivery in 2023/24 between Dec. 4 and 8 is a significant and, in terms of its volume, somewhat unexpected factor in the current market. The buyers clearly took advantage of a price opportunity, yet there are other influencing factors behind this buying surge to consider.

Already in the Market

China is in a wheat-buying phase driven in part by reported damage to its 2023 crop from rain at harvest. USDA expects China to exceed its WTO-agreed 9.6 MMT tariff rate quota again in 2023/24. By late November, China had already purchased a total of 1.01 MMT of four U.S. wheat classes, including 789,000 MT of SRW in 2023/24.

The U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Price Report on Nov. 22 estimated SRW FOB export price out of the Gulf at $250 per MT, and on Nov. 30 at $258 per MT, a very competitive price relative to other wheat origins.

After the recent deals through Dec. 8, total 2023/24 SRW commercial sales to China to date now exceed 1.9 MMT. As a result, USDA raised its Dec. 8 estimate of total SRW sales in 2023/24 by about 817,000 MT to 4.76 MMT. If realized, that would be the largest volume of SRW exports since 2013/14.

A Trusted Source

Portrait of USW Regional Vice President Jeff Coey.

Jeff Coey

Why so much SRW? USW Regional Vice President Jeff Coey suggests that China’s buyers and flour millers are very familiar with this soft wheat class grown in the eastern third of the United States.

“It is a story that goes back decades,” said Coey. “First, our SRW is closest to the wheat grown in China. And the investment U.S. wheat growers have made in USW’s trade and technical service over many years has given Chinese buyers the confidence to import SRW, and other classes, when the opportunity arises.”

Coey said maintaining that education process was the goal behind USW’s investment of Agricultural Trade Promotion (ATP) program funds to bring a team of Chinese buyers to the United States in early November 2023. The visit included in-depth time with Federal Grain Inspection Service inspectors at an export elevator in Houston, Tex., as well as time with a SRW farmer and officials at USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Soft Wheat Quality Lab (photo above) in Ohio.

“Those visits in particular were instructive,” said Coey. “Understanding the third-party inspection and certification process and the testing demonstrated at the ARS lab gave the buyers a sense of the design behind the quality data we share with them.”

Three people examine cookies at the USDA-ARS Wheat Quality Lab in Wooster, Ohio, in Nov. 2023.

Quality testing at the USDA-ARS Wheat Quality Lab in Wooster, Ohio, includes cookie spread testing, demonstrated during a November visit for a Chinese wheat buying team.

On the Ground Input

Ohio farmer and USW director Ray Van Horn was in the middle of his corn harvest when the Chinese buyers visited his farm.

“Ray and representatives of our member state wheat commission Ohio Corn and Wheat hosted the team on a crisp, clear afternoon in one of Ray’s fields with a beautiful, new stand of soft red winter wheat. It was a perfect place to share information about the wheat production decisions he makes and how that may affect buyers,” Coey said.

Ohio farmer Ray Van Horn talks with Chinese wheat buyers in his field planted with soft red winter wheat.

In a field seeded with a 2024 soft red winter wheat crop, Ohio farmer Ray Van Horn (right) discusses how he makes decisions and manages his crops with members of a Chinese wheat buying trade team sponsored by USW and hosted by Ohio Corn & Wheat in early November.

Adding value to this buying opportunity is the fact that U.S. farmers produced two large SRW crops with excellent quality in 2022 and 2023.

“Together all these factors helped build the confidence that these buyers can select U.S. soft red winter this year and have a deep supply of consistent quality with a ready domestic market,” Coey concluded.

By USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer

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With funding from the Market Access Program (MAP), U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) educated some top U.S. wheat customers in the Caribbean Region about the methods and mechanics of grain purchasing and trading. Hosted at the Northern Crops Institute in North Dakota, the customized procurement course attracted milling companies from the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Mexico, Panama and Trinidad &Tobago.

Home to nearly 30 million people, the Caribbean’s proximity to the U.S. provides competitive advantage for U.S. wheat exports. USW considers the region a growth market for U.S. wheat and targets islands that have flour mills and sizeable end-product manufacturing. Giving millers updated tools to make purchasing decisions is seen as a solid business decision for the U.S. wheat industry.

Helping Customers See More Value

USW’s Grain Purchasing Short Course took place in June 2022 with a focus on U.S. wheat supply, global demand and grain merchandising.  The course also included a “Getting the Wheat Value You Want” presentation by USW and an opportunity to practice futures trading at North Dakota State University. Visits to the Port of Duluth-Superior, the CHS export facility in Duluth and meetings with the area grain trade were also part of the experience.

During follow-ups to the course, A Dominican Republic mill purchased an additional 3,000 metric tons (MT) of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat and an additional 2,000 MT of hard red winter (HRW) wheat valued at approximately $1.9 million. A Haitian mill reported that, because of what it learned in the course, it was able to request and evaluate basis offers, FOB offers and CIF offers. Savings realized using these methods increased satisfaction with U.S. wheat. The company reported purchases of 36,000 MT of U.S. HRW from July 2022 through February 2023 valued at approximately $14.6 million.

An online training series developed by U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) in the early days of the COVID pandemic continues to have success in its effort to educate South American bakers and millers about the value and quality of U.S. wheat.

Specifically, the Online Baking Certification program promotes baking methods and processes that highlight all six U.S. wheat classes. What is significant about the program is that it’s able to reach a large number of bakery and milling staff who otherwise would not be able to take part in educational workshops. The virtual format allows participants to study at their own pace before testing through a handful of modules to earn certification.

Funded by the Agricultural Trade Promotion Program (ATP) – a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) program created in 2018 to help U.S. agricultural exporters enhance their work in international markets and mitigate other obstacles to trade – USW’s online trainings have made great strides toward reaching the goal of boosting awareness of U.S. wheat.

Bakers and millers in Colombia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia and Brazil have been getting a thorough introduction to U.S. wheat and are learning how they can utilize it to improve the quality of breads and other baked goods.

The goal for U.S. wheat is ambitious yet simple: Sharing ways to improve baked products made with U.S. wheat could result in increased consumption in South America, which could lead to more customers for South America’s bakeries.

It could also potentially lead to a greater demand for U.S. wheat.

Putting U.S. Wheat ‘Top of Mind’

USW’s Online Baking Certification program build’s upon an effort to create awareness of U.S. wheat in South America. Pictured here is an in-person workshop conducted in USW’s Santiago office in 2019, prior to the COVID pandemic.

USW’s Online Baking Certification program builds upon an ongoing effort to create awareness of U.S. wheat’s value and quality in South America. Pictured here is an in-person workshop conducted in USW’s Santiago office in 2019, prior to the COVID pandemic.

Miguel Galdos, USW’s regional director in South America, says the goal of the Online Baking Certification program is to create better awareness of U.S. wheat.

“We want U.S. wheat to be top of mind for more bakers in the region, as well as for the technical staff at the milling companies,” he said. “We want to place a higher emphasis on reaching bakers

and technical people to perhaps give them a voice when it comes to wheat purchasing decisions.”

The fact that both bakers and milling staff are registering for the online course, too, is a sign that many in the industry want to take advantage of the opportunity to get experience working with U.S. wheat.

USW, the wheat industry’s export market development organization, works with wheat buyers, millers, bakers, food processors and government officials in more than 100 countries to promote the reliability and value of the six U.S. wheat classes. The new emphasis on creating awareness in South America and educate the people who work directly with wheat and wheat flour inside of bakeries is strategic.

Creating awareness – putting U.S. wheat top of mind of bakers – opens all kinds of opportunities.

“The key is that once they learn one aspect of U.S. wheat’s quality, they want to see what else there is to learn,” explained Galdos. “In this program, they must test out of one module to be able to move on to the next. Before earning the certification, they must complete a two-day practical course in person. Soon, after moving through the program, they are an expert on our product. At that point, U.S. wheat has developed a customer.”

Virtual Training has Become Commonplace

The virtual baking training includes six different modules that allow bakers and milling staff to progress at their own pace. Participants must pass a module to move on to the next, assuring they are exposed to all of U.S. wheat’s positive attributes.

The Online Baking Certification program includes six different modules that allow bakers and milling staff to progress at their own pace. Participants must pass one module to move on to the next, assuring they are exposed to all of U.S. wheat’s many positive attributes.

Launched in October 2020 as an alternative to in-person training workshops during the height of the COVID pandemic, the Online Baking Certification program has grown rapidly. USW recently added a Portuguese version to the original Spanish version to attract more Brazilian participation. USW also has plans to add a master-level course in the near-future.

The current program has registered nearly 5,500 students in two years. Thanks to a partnership between U.S, Wheat Associates, the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association and the Brazilian Bakery and Confectionery Industry Association, further growth is expected.

The six South American countries targeted by USW are the six that purchase U.S. wheat.

“The biggest wheat buyer in Colombia has had 15 staff members go through the whole program and earn certification,” said Galdos. “Chile has been another active participant, so we are seeing interest from a good portion of the region. Brazil is promising. We have met with the millers and bakers’ associations and U.S. Wheat Associates is going to be recognized by those associations at an upcoming event.”

The birth of the program came by necessity after in-person trainings and workshops were eliminated because of COVID. By March 2020, USW’s staff in Santiago, Chile, were putting together educational materials to complete the online bakery course – courses featuring baking theory, video instruction and assessment platforms were assembled. USW Baking Consultant Didier Rosada played a key role in the production of baking videos for the modules, which were finished in May 2020 and then sent to selected baking staff around the region for testing.

Opportunity for a Competitive Edge

Those who have completed USW’s Online Baking Certification are reporting they gained greater knowledge of traditional baking methods that work well with U.S. wheat.

Miguel Galdos, USW regional director in South America

Miguel Galdos, USW regional director in South America

Galdos emphasized that the online courses provide U.S. wheat with an advantage over competing wheat growing and exporting countries.

One example is the value of U.S. hard red winter wheat compared to Canadian wheat.

“One thing we stress to the bakers in South America is that many of the products they are baking do not require Canadian wheat that is higher in protein but more expensive,” Galdos said. “U.S. hard red winter wheat is a better option, and the content in the online baking courses teach them why. We show them how to bake with it. The problem is that the bakers are not trained. We want more bakers in the region exposed to the value and quality of U.S. wheat and how using it can benefit their products and their businesses.”

Along with putting U.S. wheat top of mind for South American bakers, Galdos pointed out a valuable additional benefit to USW’s online baking program.

“Through this certification process we are working with bakeries, collaborating with millers, collaborating with the people who either are or could be buying and using U.S. wheat,” he said. “We are educating them and creating awareness for U.S. wheat. At the same time, we are building relationships.”

Image shows grain rail cars by a country elevator to illustrate USW comments to the Surface Transportation Board.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) recognizes that direct rail shipments of U.S. wheat to millers in Mexico provides a significant advantage over competing wheat exporting countries. USW has been increasing its efforts to facilitate these types of sales by educating Mexican buyers about the rail shipping process and efficiencies.

In June 2022, USW’s Mexico City Office used Agricultural Trade Promotion Program (ATP) funds to organize and lead a trade team from a Mexican company that is a major buyer of U.S. wheat to meet with U.S. farmers, grain cooperatives and grain elevators in Ohio and Kansas that have direct rail shipment capabilities. The trade team included the company’s wheat purchasing manager and production manager.

Improved Infrastructure

Expansion of U.S. exports to the market via rail has been made possible by significant investments and dramatic improvements in the Mexican rail infrastructure over the last 15 years. Today, there are 46 shuttle train facilities, including 9 new facilities that were inaugurated in 2020-2022, and 12 milling companies have the capacity to receive shuttle trains.

Along with demonstrating the capabilities of shipping U.S. wheat directly to mills in Mexico, the trade team led by USW was educated on the quality and supply of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat and hard red winter wheat (HRW).

As a result of discussions with the trade team – both during and after the visits to Ohio and Kansas – the company bought SRW for the first time in more than three years. The estimated total for the 44,160 metric tons (MT) of SRW purchases that resulted from the trade team was $15.7 million.

 

 

Image of people around a stainless steel industrial table discussing technical support topics related to serving global wheat importing customers.

Adding value to U.S. wheat export supplies requires strong technical support and broad knowledge of the milling, baking, and processing needed to produce hundreds of unique food products. With 11 professional flour millers and bakers on staff, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) uses technical support to add value and create a differential advantage for U.S. wheat classes over competing supplies that often cost less.

With additional funding through the Agricultural Trade Promotion (ATP) program, and help from its educational partners, USW created and implemented a multi-year activity to improve its already strong technical support. In February 2022 and in March 2023, USW held “Core Competency Training” sessions for technical and marketing staff from all its overseas offices. The objective was to help USW become more competent to help milling and baking customers grow their businesses using imported U.S. wheat.

Image shows people in an industrial baking lab discussing production and quality of baguette bread made with U.S. wheat as part of a technical support training program.

At the Wheat Marketing Center in Portland, Ore., in 2022, USW technical and marketing staff gathered to “learn so they can teach” overseas customers.

Building Core Competency

The in-depth sessions and discussions give newer USW technical and marketing specialists the chance to learn from USW’s senior experts working in distant regions. Exchanging information and techniques about different flour and wheat food products creates the chance to develop new product opportunities in new markets. In addition, the Core Competency Training workshops have given USW the shared knowledge to help solve problems and develop more successful training and technical support for customers.

“A clear knowledge of the customer’s business is vitally important to opening the door to U.S. wheat farmers as valued suppliers,” said Peter Lloyd, one of USW’s senior technical managers and a recognized global flour milling expert. “I believe the Core Competency Training has improved our ability to bring the greatest value where it makes the most difference – on the bottom-line profit for a supply chain manager, miller, or baker.”

Team of bakers showing their test production.

Mexico is the world’s largest market for U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat and soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and the third largest market for U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) works to maintain and grow market share of all three classes by providing technical training to bakers in Mexico that demonstrates ways to improve products made with U.S. wheat.

In December 2022, USW’s Mexico City Office used Market Access Program (MAP) funds to present a technical baking seminar for one of the top baking companies in Mexico. The seminar focused on improving current end-products by reinforcing the use of sponge and dough methods, with an emphasis on the production of bolillos, baguettes and ciabattas. Thirty-five participants attended the USW course, including 29 bakers and managers from several different store locations.

Within two months after the seminar’s conclusion, the baking company reported that, due to information it received at the USW seminar, it implemented the sponge and dough methods in 70% of its production centers. It also set a goal of reaching 100% adaptation of the methods by March of 2023. Additionally, the company reported a 4.7% increase in sales resulting in a corresponding increase in U.S. wheat flour usage valued at an estimated $584,000 per year.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) frequently uses the unique U.S. grain inspection system to demonstrate a competitive advantage to the world’s wheat buyers. Now, with additional funding from the Agricultural Trade Program (ATP), USW is expanding its effort to demonstrate the integrity of the U.S. wheat supply chain in cooperation with the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS).

The international affairs office of FGIS provides educational training programs to overseas buyers explaining the mission of the agency to certify the physical and contractual integrity of U.S. wheat and other grains. In July 2019 in Peru, a country the imports a total of 2.0 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat each year, USW worked with FGIS agent José Robinson to conduct half-day seminars for 53 quality control managers from the country’s five largest wheat importing companies. The participants also shared their processes with Robinson, showing examples of the wheat they inspected in plant. As a result, the managers were able to test their abilities to conduct similar inspections with guidance from directly from FGIS.

Under ATP, the USW South American regional representatives based in Santiago, Chile, plan to repeat this training activity in four other South American countries over the next two years.

USW believes this service for wheat importing customers gives them a deeper understanding of and increased trust and confidence in the FGIS inspection and certification process. The changes implemented in the mills following the training sessions should result in fewer discrepancies between the FGIS grade and the results of local, in-plant inspections, leading to increased satisfaction with U.S. wheat.

In addition, USW has earmarked ATP funds to conduct a similar FGIS Grain Inspection and Certification training session at the African Milling School in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2019. This session will be in part a “train the trainer” session for faculty members from the African Milling School and from the IFIM flour milling school in Casablanca, Morocco. Technical officials from the Office of Cereals in Algeria, the agency that plans and purchases the country’s wheat imports, and other participants from selected organizations in Sub-Saharan Africa will also participate.

Working with these schools extends knowledge of U.S. wheat value to flour millers throughout North and East Africa, as well as the Middle East. That is increasingly important in these competitive markets, especially in educating millers and processors in the growing cake and confection markets that need the specific information about the differential performance of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) and soft white (SW) wheat classes.

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The marketing year 2018/19 hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS) wheat crops offered excellent milling and baking quality, and therefore more value, than in previous years. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) representatives in South America invited two representatives of an influential buying group in Chile to participate in a trade team visit to the United States in June 2018. This group had not purchased U.S. wheat, relying instead on Canadian spring wheat, so USW was pleased that the trade team included two executives from the buying group who had never participated in such a visit to observe the U.S. wheat production and supply system.

In Portland, OR, the participants made contacts with new Pacific Northwest grain traders and observed the FGIS grain inspection process. In Nebraska, hosted by the Nebraska Wheat Board, the team saw public wheat breeding research at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, and in North Dakota they learned about new crop U.S HRS quality.

As the tour progressed, USW saw more and more interest from the participants. They learned that lower moisture U.S. wheat offers good value in their milling processes. They saw how they could use inspection data to get maximum return from their wheat import contracts. They talked to farmers and elevator operators who showed how quality is maintained throughout the supply chain.

In September 2018, the buying group told USW it was considering purchasing a full cargo of U.S. wheat and requested additional crop quality data to support and facilitate the decision. USW shared the quality data from the new harvest and past years and discussed the excellent buying opportunities. In April 2019, the buyer purchased 30,000 metric tons (MT) of U.S. HRW to mill into bread flour and soft red winter (SRW) to mill into cookie and pastry flour. The mill manager who traveled to the United States also expressed interest in purchasing soft white (SW) from the Pacific Northwest. With funding from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Market Access Program (MAP), USW provided trade and technical service to open that opportunity. And to continue the long-term process to build sales to the buyinggroup, USW invested Agricultural Trade Program (ATP) funds to send the same manager to participate in the Hard Red Spring Wheat Quality Tour in North Dakota in July 2019.

With a more sustained effort focused on replacing Canadian supplies and funded by MAP, ATP and the Foreign Market Development program, USW anticipates continued growth from this influential buying pool and throughout South America.

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USDA Foreign Agricultural Service cooperator U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) held its 2019 Mexico Wheat Trade Conference June 2 to 4, 2019, which was perfectly timed to address trade policy concerns face to face with Mexican customers.

USW President Vince Peterson noted that the conference showed USW and its Mexican customers that shared challenges could bring them closer together to help navigate the policy issues and increase the efficiency and value of Mexico’s U.S. wheat purchases.

In marketing year 2017/18, U.S. wheat share of Mexico’s record total wheat imports declined. Representatives of Mexico’s milling association stated that new political rhetoric and trade policies prompted them to increased Russian and Canadian wheat imports and for the first time some wheat from Argentina. USW shared several public statements about the U.S. trade policies that helped reassure the buyers of the on-going commitment to service supported by the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program. In fact, USW has reason to believe this effort helped keep U.S. wheat off Mexico’s retaliatory tariff list related to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs.

However, USW remained concerned that the relationship with Mexico’s millers remained precarious. In addition, approval of the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on Trade was also uncertain. To help overcome these potential constraints, USW planned the Mexico Wheat Trade Conference that included many farmers and administrators representing state wheat commissions. The conference speakers covered a wide range of wheat quality, purchasing and logistical topics over two full days.

With so many logistical options for delivering wheat to Mexico, USW Regional Vice President Mitch Skalicky and his colleagues based in Mexico City who planned the conference emphasized commercial rail issues and opportunities in the program.

The flour millers that attended the conference in Cancún represented about 80% of the total 2018/19 U.S. wheat commercial sales to Mexico reported by USDA. José Luis Fuente is president of the millers’ national association and offered an inspired appeal to work together to tell officials in both countries that export opportunities must be improved, not restricted. He said his members know that U.S. wheat farmers, USW and USDA have done many things to tell that story. He added that this is a partnership based on affection that is backed by actions, but actions are more needed now in this unusual trade environment.

In marketing year 2018/19, Mexican flour millers did import 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. wheat, more than any other country. Mexican millers continue purchasing U.S. hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS) and hard white (HW) at a fast pace in 2019/20.

Video reports from the USW Mexico Wheat Trade Conference are posted on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/user/USWheatAssociates.

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The popularity of non-traditional baked goods like chewy breads, cookies and fluffy cakes is rapidly growing in the People’s Republic of China. To help build a preference for flour from U.S. wheat classes among aspiring Chinese baking companies, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service cooperator U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has expanded its technical capabilities through staffing and an exceptional training activity.

USW hired Dr. Ting Liu in September 2016 as Technical Specialist to provide support and training to demonstrate the performance of U.S. wheat in the new baked goods as well as traditional Chinese wheat based products. Dr. Liu works from USW’s Beijing office and regularly travels across China to provide baking demonstrations, technical seminars and promote practical application of U.S. wheat performance results. Staff administrative expenses for Dr. Liu and her experienced marketing colleagues in China are supported by the Foreign Market Development (FMD) program with development activities funded by the Market Access Program (MAP).

Because there is intense interest in professional baking expertise, especially in scaling up industrial sized operations, USW decided to invest some of its activities funding to send Dr. Liu to the 192nd Baking Science and Technology course at AIB International in Manhattan, Kan., from January through May 2018. This is an internationally respected, 16-week program combining science, hands-on lab work and baking tradition in its course work. With her expertise in food science and cereal chemistry, Dr. Liu was well prepared for this training — but she far exceeded expectations.

Dr. Liu represented herself, USW and the U.S. wheat farmers she represents with distinction, earning honors as the course’s top student and an “Excellence in Laboratory Leadership” award for her participation in the course. Now she will apply this advanced knowledge to effectively stress that flour which performs its intended functions enables Chinese bakers to produce higher quality, better tasting wheat foods, and that U.S. wheat flours are essential ingredients on which bakers can rely for consistent results.

Though China’s centrally planned food and trade policies create substantial barriers to export growth, the increased ability to train the industrial bakeries that must meet consumer demand is pulling in high protein U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) wheat for bread products and soft white (SW) for cakes and cookies. In marketing years 2016/17 and 2017/18, China imported an average of 843,000 metric tons (MT) of HRS, 163,000 MT of HRW and 318,000 MT of SW per year, valued at about $324 million per year for farmers and wheat supply participants in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains.