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Several wheat buyers from China, Dr. Byung Kee Baik, USW staff stand in front of the directory at the ARS Soft Wheat Quality Lab in Wooster, Ohio.
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China’s Soft Red Winter Purchases: The Right Wheat At The Right Time

The purchase by China of 1.12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat for delivery in 2023/24 between Dec. 4 and 8 is a significant and, in terms of its volume, somewhat unexpected factor in the current market. The buyers clearly took advantage of a price opportunity, yet there are other influencing factors behind this buying surge to consider.

Already in the Market

China is in a wheat-buying phase driven in part by reported damage to its 2023 crop from rain at harvest. USDA expects China to exceed its WTO-agreed 9.6 MMT tariff rate quota again in 2023/24. By late November, China had already purchased a total of 1.01 MMT of four U.S. wheat classes, including 789,000 MT of SRW in 2023/24.

The U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Price Report on Nov. 22 estimated SRW FOB export price out of the Gulf at $250 per MT, and on Nov. 30 at $258 per MT, a very competitive price relative to other wheat origins.

After the recent deals through Dec. 8, total 2023/24 SRW commercial sales to China to date now exceed 1.9 MMT. As a result, USDA raised its Dec. 8 estimate of total SRW sales in 2023/24 by about 817,000 MT to 4.76 MMT. If realized, that would be the largest volume of SRW exports since 2013/14.

A Trusted Source

Portrait of USW Regional Vice President Jeff Coey.

Jeff Coey

Why so much SRW? USW Regional Vice President Jeff Coey suggests that China’s buyers and flour millers are very familiar with this soft wheat class grown in the eastern third of the United States.

“It is a story that goes back decades,” said Coey. “First, our SRW is closest to the wheat grown in China. And the investment U.S. wheat growers have made in USW’s trade and technical service over many years has given Chinese buyers the confidence to import SRW, and other classes, when the opportunity arises.”

Coey said maintaining that education process was the goal behind USW’s investment of Agricultural Trade Promotion (ATP) program funds to bring a team of Chinese buyers to the United States in early November 2023. The visit included in-depth time with Federal Grain Inspection Service inspectors at an export elevator in Houston, Tex., as well as time with a SRW farmer and officials at USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Soft Wheat Quality Lab (photo above) in Ohio.

“Those visits in particular were instructive,” said Coey. “Understanding the third-party inspection and certification process and the testing demonstrated at the ARS lab gave the buyers a sense of the design behind the quality data we share with them.”

Three people examine cookies at the USDA-ARS Wheat Quality Lab in Wooster, Ohio, in Nov. 2023.

Quality testing at the USDA-ARS Wheat Quality Lab in Wooster, Ohio, includes cookie spread testing, demonstrated during a November visit for a Chinese wheat buying team.

On the Ground Input

Ohio farmer and USW director Ray Van Horn was in the middle of his corn harvest when the Chinese buyers visited his farm.

“Ray and representatives of our member state wheat commission Ohio Corn and Wheat hosted the team on a crisp, clear afternoon in one of Ray’s fields with a beautiful, new stand of soft red winter wheat. It was a perfect place to share information about the wheat production decisions he makes and how that may affect buyers,” Coey said.

Ohio farmer Ray Van Horn talks with Chinese wheat buyers in his field planted with soft red winter wheat.

In a field seeded with a 2024 soft red winter wheat crop, Ohio farmer Ray Van Horn (right) discusses how he makes decisions and manages his crops with members of a Chinese wheat buying trade team sponsored by USW and hosted by Ohio Corn & Wheat in early November.

Adding value to this buying opportunity is the fact that U.S. farmers produced two large SRW crops with excellent quality in 2022 and 2023.

“Together all these factors helped build the confidence that these buyers can select U.S. soft red winter this year and have a deep supply of consistent quality with a ready domestic market,” Coey concluded.

By USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer

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Grain Purchasing Course Increases Caribbean Market Demand

With funding from the Market Access Program (MAP), U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) educated some top U.S. wheat customers in the Caribbean Region about the methods and mechanics of grain purchasing and trading. Hosted at the Northern Crops Institute in North Dakota, the customized procurement course attracted milling companies from the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Mexico, Panama and Trinidad &Tobago.

Home to nearly 30 million people, the Caribbean’s proximity to the U.S. provides competitive advantage for U.S. wheat exports. USW considers the region a growth market for U.S. wheat and targets islands that have flour mills and sizeable end-product manufacturing. Giving millers updated tools to make purchasing decisions is seen as a solid business decision for the U.S. wheat industry.

Helping Customers See More Value

USW’s Grain Purchasing Short Course took place in June 2022 with a focus on U.S. wheat supply, global demand and grain merchandising.  The course also included a “Getting the Wheat Value You Want” presentation by USW and an opportunity to practice futures trading at North Dakota State University. Visits to the Port of Duluth-Superior, the CHS export facility in Duluth and meetings with the area grain trade were also part of the experience.

During follow-ups to the course, A Dominican Republic mill purchased an additional 3,000 metric tons (MT) of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat and an additional 2,000 MT of hard red winter (HRW) wheat valued at approximately $1.9 million. A Haitian mill reported that, because of what it learned in the course, it was able to request and evaluate basis offers, FOB offers and CIF offers. Savings realized using these methods increased satisfaction with U.S. wheat. The company reported purchases of 36,000 MT of U.S. HRW from July 2022 through February 2023 valued at approximately $14.6 million.

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Team of bakers showing their test production.
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Technical Baking Seminar in Mexico Leads to Increased Use of U.S Wheat Flour

Mexico is the world’s largest market for U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat and soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and the third largest market for U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) works to maintain and grow market share of all three classes by providing technical training to bakers in Mexico that demonstrates ways to improve products made with U.S. wheat.

In December 2022, USW’s Mexico City Office used Market Access Program (MAP) funds to present a technical baking seminar for one of the top baking companies in Mexico. The seminar focused on improving current end-products by reinforcing the use of sponge and dough methods, with an emphasis on the production of bolillos, baguettes and ciabattas. Thirty-five participants attended the USW course, including 29 bakers and managers from several different store locations.

Within two months after the seminar’s conclusion, the baking company reported that, due to information it received at the USW seminar, it implemented the sponge and dough methods in 70% of its production centers. It also set a goal of reaching 100% adaptation of the methods by March of 2023. Additionally, the company reported a 4.7% increase in sales resulting in a corresponding increase in U.S. wheat flour usage valued at an estimated $584,000 per year.

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Maintaining Strong Awareness of U.S. Wheat Quality in China

It is certainly true that the trade relations between the United States and China have been and remain in a difficult place. However, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service cooperator U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is confident that this trade confrontation will one day be resolved. After many years investing funding from the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program, USW remains engaged in keeping our once and future wheat importing customers in China informed about the quality, variety and value of U.S. wheat in anticipation of future opportunities.

USW maintains a presence in Beijing but did not replace a retired colleague to help hold the line on FMD investment. Trade service visits in the first six months of 2019 confirm that private flour millers want to continue importing U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and soft white (SW) when the tariff conflict is resolved. The only flour miller who purchased any U.S. wheat in marketing year 2018/19 was willing to pay the 25% punitive tariff and took delivery of 43,000 metric tons of HRS in April. He expressed an abiding interest in the functionality, flavor and good milling characteristic of U.S. wheat, and holds high hopes for not just a “normal” trading relationship, but one that allow mills like his to run much more of it.

USW representatives also conducted trade service visits with customers attending Bakery China Shanghai 2019. They participated in a U.S. agricultural product showcase sponsored by the USDA/FAS Agricultural Trade Officer posted in Shanghai to highlight the differential advantages of U.S. HRS and other classes of wheat. USW Regional Vice President Jeff Coey reported that every customer was eager to regain access to the high-quality U.S. wheat they learned about through export development programs and experience over the years.

Officials with China’s state-sponsored grain buying agencies also welcome USW trade servicing, technical training and relationship management activities. Even with the tariffs in place, in May 2019 Coey and USW/Beijing Country Director Shirley Lu were invited to speak at a conference in Xiamen to several millers who gained new information about the functional value of U.S. wheat classes. Bakery training classes conducted by USW’s technical specialist in 2019 also expanded awareness of U.S. wheat’s superior functional benefits.

In addition, officials were happy to hear that USW’s commitment to the China market remains unchanged.  In fact, USW told the officials it intends to increase its activities in partnership with FAS in part with funding from the Agricultural Trade Promotion (ATP) program to keep U.S. wheat top of mind among users and policy makers in China. Under ATP, for example, USW plans to hold a series of “Contracting for Wheat Value” courses in the United States for commercial and state wheat buyers over the next three years. Participants will be managers with direct wheat trade contacts that influence wheat purchasing in their organizations. After the courses, participants will get the chance to observe wheat breeding, farms, transportation, quality control and Federal Grain Inspection Service processes.

Given that China imported 1.6 million metric tons of U.S. HRS, SW and soft red winter (SRW) wheat in marketing year 2016/17 and more than 800,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat in 2017/18 before the retaliatory tariffs were implemented, potential demand will benefit farmers in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. And, with funding from MAP, FMD and ATP, USW’s commitment to service in China will continue long after this trade conflict has ended.

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U.S. Wheat Associates Fighting Canadian Wheat Dominance in Ecuador

Ecuador’s per capita consumption of wheat foods has rapidly increased in recent years, supported in part by governmental regulations limiting imports of finished products. Over the years, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service cooperator U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has focused on demonstrating how using flour from U.S. hard red winter (HRW) can improve bread quality while reducing variable costs to build U.S. wheat share of Ecuador’s growing bread flour market.

The main constraint in this segment is a long-held reliance on higher protein Canadian wheat. To demonstrate the value of HRW wheat flour, USW used MAP funds in 2017 to conduct a baking seminar with a large commercial operation in Quito that supplies frozen dough and par-baked dough to fast food chains and the largest supermarket in Ecuador. The USW consultant demonstrated how the bakery could modify its processes using flour with a higher proportion of HRW wheat rather than with straight high-protein Canadian wheat flour and additives. This year, the company reported it has developed new products and will produce sliced bread and hamburger buns using HRW blended flour.

In September 2018, USW held seminars with two other bakeries with similar results. The seminars proved that U.S. HRW wheat flour reduced costs and improved the taste and quality of bread products. Both bakeries are changing their processes to product new products from the HRW blended flour. In 2019, USW also established its first contact with the largest commercial bakery in Ecuador that resulted in an agreement with USW to hold in-plant demonstrations of U.S. wheat flour blends.

To ensure HRW flour is available to those bakeries, USW has also conducted trade servicing and technical support for the largest flour miller in Ecuador. In June 2018, USW invited the main buyer from the premium mill to join a trade team to the United States. As a new employee of the mill, the buyer’s mind was more open to new opportunities and immediately after the trip he purchased a shipment of more than 11,000 metric tons of HRW and, in 2018, U.S. HRW and soft red winter (SRW) wheat made up 80% of the mill’s purchase volume. In 2019/20, under the Agricultural Trade Promotion (ATP) program, USW will start to chip away at the Canadian wheat dominance at a large mill in Ecuador by bringing samples of HRW and in-plant technical support to demonstrate the value of the U.S. alternative.

USW has also expanded its activities with medium-sized mills that produce about 30% of Ecuador’s annual flour production. Since 2016, USW has conducted a variety of activities to help them purchase and process U.S. wheat as efficiently as possible. As a result, U.S. wheat is gaining a foothold, growing from 6.3% of the mid-sized mill purchases in 2017/18 to 15.8% in 2018/19.

Ecuador’s average annual purchase of HRW the past three marketing years is 101,000 metric tons, a significant increase over the three-year average of 46,200 metric tons in 2015/16 and SRW purchases of about 224,800 metric tons in 2018/19.

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USW Provides Essential Wheat Crop Quality Data Every Year

Because no two crops are alike, the world’s flour millers, bakers and wheat food processors must have some assurance that the wheat they buy will meet their needs. That is why USDA Foreign Agricultural Service cooperator U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and its partner organizations collect and analyze samples of all six classes of U.S. wheat, compile results and share that data around the world every year.

Legacy organizations to USW first identified the need to quickly gather and share new crop data in 1960. Since then, wheat farmer checkoff dollars and Market Access Program (MAP) funding have been invested to publish a complete picture of each year’s harvest. This commitment to transparency offers confidence in the data that, together with the trade service and technical support also funded by MAP and the Foreign Market Development (FMD) program, help differentiate U.S. wheat exportable supplies from competing supplies from Russia, Ukraine, Europe, Canada, Australia and Argentina.

USW works with several wheat quality organizations, including the Federal Grain Inspection Service and the USDA/ARS Hard Winter Wheat Quality Laboratory, to collect, grade and analyze thousands of wheat samples from local elevators and sub-lot samples from export elevators. Sampling begins with early winter wheat harvest and continues until the U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and durum harvests are complete, usually by early October. The data is compiled by class and by production region. By late October, class reports and a complete USW Crop Quality Report are published on USW’s website and the Crop Quality Report is printed as a booklet in English, Spanish, French, Arabic and Mandarin.

USW then sends teams of farmers, wheat quality experts and representatives out to present that year’s data to its buyers. By mid-December, USW has presented current characteristics on grade factors, protein levels, flour extraction rates, dough stability, baking loaf volume, noodle color and texture and more for all six U.S. wheat classes to hundreds of buyers, millers and processors in more than 25 countries. Buying decisions are made because of this effort; some are acted upon quickly. For example, with information they learned at USW’s 2015 Crop Quality Seminar, millers in Portugal imported 36,500 metric tons of HRS for the first time in 3 years.

U.S. wheat crop quality data forms the basis for our farmers’ ability to compete in the global wheat market. Without funding from MAP and the support of federally-funded inspection and quality analysis labs, this essential service to overseas customers would not be possible. It provides crucial support to annual U.S. wheat export sales averaging more than 26 million metric tons per year.

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Latin American Buyers Conference Builds Knowledge Base for Future U.S. Wheat Exports

A Latin American and Caribbean Buyers Conference June 2016 in Portland, OR, sponsored by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service cooperator U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) with Market Access Program (MAP) funding and support from 9 state wheat commissions, set the stage for incremental wheat exports by 75 flour millers and buyers from 16 countries.

The increasingly competitive global wheat market puts a premium on in-person trade service and technical support to differentiate wheat supplies. The 2016 Buyers Conference created a collegial opportunity for wheat buyers to meet with farmers, U.S. based grain traders and technical experts on local supply chain visits, in seminar sessions and social activities. USW arranged for speakers on a range of relevant topics including U.S. wheat quality trends, logistics management, plant breeding methods and other key wheat price drivers that address specific constraints on U.S. wheat sales to these growing markets.

By increasing the basic knowledge of how to purchase U.S. wheat, for example, a flour miller in Haiti bought their first two shipments ever of U.S. hard red winter (HRW) after the conference, with plans to import more HRW. The miller noted that meeting with traders and millers at the conference opened talks about possible joint purchases. Two participants from a new flour mill in Honduras said they now have better information to consider additional U.S. wheat purchases from Pacific Northwest ports. An experienced Colombian buyer said seeing the whole process from varietal development to the farm and supply system was “amazing” and definitely increased his confidence in U.S. wheat quality and reliability.

To help overcome regional preferences for Canadian wheat, master baker Didier Rosada presented (in Spanish) evidence that blending two or more U.S. wheat classes can be less expensive and improve end-product quality. With this information and discussions at the conference, a large Costa Rican miller and food processor indicated it would likely increase U.S. soft white (SW) wheat imports for blending.

While it is not possible to quantify all additional U.S. wheat exports directly related to the 2016 conference, 2016/17 sales to Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean of 6.3 million metric tons (MMT) are up 23 percent over 2015/16. Sales of 3.5 MMT of U.S. wheat to South American markets represent a 70 percent increase in 2016/17 over the prior year.

Overall, the effort to identify how world market dynamics made U.S. wheat an attractive choice was a timely message for Latin American buyers. To help meet the growing demand for new and better wheat food products in the region they increasingly buy based on the kind of quality characteristics U.S. wheat classes offer. A survey of buyers at the 2016 conference showed that 64 percent believed the experience will help them compare U.S. wheat quality, while 70 percent said it would help them compare U.S wheat value, to competing origins. These are key objectives for USW in its trade service and technical support activities funded by the MAP and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program.

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Market Development Helps Build Future Demand for U.S. Wheat in China

Euromonitor International has predicted that sales of baked goods in the People’s Republic of China will increase 22.5% by 2021. Domestic wheat is less than optimal in flour production and quality for these baked goods, so imports are needed. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service cooperator U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is using Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program funds to meet that demand by helping the Chinese baking industry tackle technical challenges to produce world class baked goods using imported U.S. wheat.

USW applied FMD funds to hire Dr. Ting Liu in September 2016 as Technical Specialist to bolster USW’s technical ability to demonstrate U.S. wheat performance qualities for new baked goods. One of Dr. Liu’s first projects, supported by MAP funds, was to help the Sino American Baking School (SABS) in Guangdong Province offer consultation to baking companies that have some experience using flour made from U.S. wheat. The long-term goal is to help them expand new specialty items such as sourdough, frozen dough and whole grain products. In marketing year 2016/17, three Chinese companies requested the technical assistance from senior specialists currently teaching at, or recently retired from, SABS. USW and SABS are strongly associated with excellent instruction and product development, so USW’s support is also helping build stronger reputations for both the school and for U.S. wheat.

Growing demand for baked goods and interest in healthy, whole grain products represents good opportunity to increase Chinese demand specifically for high-protein U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat. In May 2017, Dr. Liu represented USW at the 2017 Sino-Foreign Whole Grain Industry Development Experts Forum in Shanghai. Joining 22 experts in food processing, nutrition and health, financial investment, policy and marketing, Dr. Liu actively participated in the forum as one of 10 industry guest speakers. Drawing from USW’s activities in several other countries, Dr. Liu’s presentation focused “International Whole Grain Development,” which provided guidelines and references to the development of whole grains products in China.

China’s U.S. wheat imports can swing up or down with government policy decisions. However, total U.S. import volume doubled in 2016/17 to more than 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) compared to almost 880,000 MT in 2015/16. A closer look shows China’s annual import of HRS wheat grown in Minnesota, North Dakota, Montana and South Dakota has steadily increased the past five years from 475,000 MT in 2012/13 to more than 1.1 MMT in 2016/17. That is the second highest volume of HRS imports in the world that year.

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Trade Service and Visit to the United States Help Increase U.S. Wheat Exports to Colombia

To help Colombian wheat buyers find ways to import more U.S. wheat, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service cooperator U.S. Wheat Associates worked closely with USDA and state wheat commissions to organize a visit to observe the quality and logistical advantages of the U.S. wheat supply chain.

Colombia is the largest wheat buyer in the growing South American market. There are several smaller flour mills there that find it difficult and price restrictive to try to purchase U.S. wheat from on their own. USW’s South America regional office saw an opportunity to overcome this constraint by bringing newer members of the purchasing and milling industries together to consider joint purchasing. They organized a trade team of high level executives from five major flour, cookie and pasta companies in Colombia, all traveling for the first time to see the U.S. wheat supply system. In June 2016, the team traveled to North Dakota, Montana and Louisiana to visit country and port elevators, to meet with wheat producers, U.S. pasta and cookie manufacturers and government agencies including the Federal Grain Inspection Service.

This trade service effort, funded by the Market Access Program (MAP), generated several positive results. One of the participants representing Colombia’s largest wheat buyer after observing how the Montana State Grain Laboratory tested feed and grain for the presence of vomitoxin (deoxynivalenol or DON), recommended that the company install the testing equipment at its mill. Now the testing is helping the mill make crucial judgements about the variability in wheat quality. In addition, the participant reports that the visit helped the company get more value from its purchases because its managers now better understand their options in U.S. wheat supply logistics.

Following the trade team visit, four of the companies established a wheat purchasing pool for the first time. Within six months, the pool purchased 220,000 MT of hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW). U.S. wheat purchases by these companies increased 19 percent compared to the same period in 2015. One of the companies that attended the trade mission informed USW that it plans to purchase 13 percent more U.S. wheat in 2016/17 and 2017/18, valued at $3.0 million because of the advantages from pool buying. That miller also said it will change its formula for bread flour by blending more imported U.S. HRW in place of Canadian spring wheat because the ratio of quality to price is greater because it can pool buy U.S. wheat.

In 2016/17, total U.S. wheat exports to Colombia for marketing year 2016/17 exceeded 858,000 metric tons, which is more than 27 percent more than in 2015/16. That represents sales benefitting farmers in the southern and central Plains and the U.S. wheat supply chain in the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Northwest.

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Trust and Partnership Protect Key North Asian Wheat Export Markets in a Crisis

Just as the 2016 wheat harvest was starting, a farmer in Washington state discovered and reported rogue wheat plants genetically modified to be “Roundup Ready” in a fallow field on his farm. Yet U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) helped avert a potentially devastating market disruption by taking quick steps to work with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and other USDA agencies, overseas wheat buyers and state wheat commissions.

U.S. wheat imports by Japan, Korea and Taiwan represent an annual average of about 20 percent of total U.S. wheat exports, valued at more than $1 billion even with very low prices. Most consumers in those countries oppose food produced from genetically modified crops, so the stakes could hardly be higher.

Once informed of the situation, USW began working on the issue closely with all the stakeholders involved, including its in-country offices and FAS posts, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), the U.S. grain trade and Monsanto. APHIS took prompt and thorough action to identify the regulated wheat event in the suspect plants and kept our organizations, as well as government officials in several key overseas markets, informed as it worked to find the facts. In turn, USW shared information about the situation with the domestic grain trade and downstream customer organizations, as well as overseas grain trade and buyers in Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

Out of an abundance of caution, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) suspended new purchases of U.S. western white wheat (soft white and 20 percent club wheat) from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Korea’s Ministry of Food and Drug Safety (MFDS) suspended all new U.S. wheat imports until their officials could validate and start using a customized version of a new detection assay provided quickly by Monsanto and APHIS.

Testing ultimately confirmed that U.S. wheat remained safe and reliable, adding confidence that nothing had changed the U.S. wheat supply chain’s ability to deliver wheat that matches every customer’s specifications. Because USW and state wheat commissions also had a bank of trust with customers in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, and because Monsanto and APHIS acted so quickly and calmly, both countries reopened their markets to all U.S. wheat imports within eight weeks.

Without the goodwill earned over decades from USW trade and technical service and business relationships funded by the Market Access Program (MAP) and the Foreign Market Development (FMD) program, wheat farmers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho and other states would be isolated in their ability to work through such a market disruption. Instead of export losses, total sales to the North Asian countries in marketing year 2016/17 increased 12 percent compared to 2015/16 with a total value of $1.2 billion.

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