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Investments in U.S. Supply Chain Infrastructure Benefit Wheat Importers

Over the last few weeks, we have explored all the major modes of the U.S. supply chain, evaluated recent trends, and highlighted how each type of transportation plays an integral role in the U.S. supply chain. Barging, rail, and oceangoing vessels work together to create the dependable supply chain importers of U.S. wheat expect. In periods of increased risk and volatility, a trustworthy, reliable supply chain is essential for providing customers with the wheat they need.

In the final installment of this series, we will explore the continued investment into the U.S. supply chain and highlight recent projects planned to keep the U.S. inland logistics system running efficiently and effectively.

This Just In

On Nov. 6, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration (MARAD) recently announced that more than 40 ports across the United States will receive $653 million in funding for improvement projects that will help with the movement of grain. Under the Port Infrastructure Development Program, the funding will help grow capacity and increase efficiency at coastal seaports, Great Lakes ports and inland river ports.

Stakeholder Commitment

With private companies owning and operating grain export infrastructure and assets, the U.S. supply chain benefits from significant commercial investment to ensure the effectiveness of the logistics system. Holding one of the largest stakes within inland transportation, the U.S. Class I railroads value the system’s reliability and understand its importance to wheat buyers worldwide.

One of the latest examples of continued private investment in the U.S. supply chain is the newly constructed rail bridge at Sandpoint Junction in the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) rail network. On August 7, the inaugural trip on the new Sandpoint Junction Connector rail bridge occurred, representing the official opening of two-way traffic crossing Lake Pend Oreille in northern Idaho. This junction is crucial because it is a merging point between the BNSF and Montana Rail Network and serves as the primary gateway that links grain grown in the Northern Plains to port access in the Pacific Northwest (PNW).

Map of the Pacific Northwest showing the location of an investment in the U.S. supply chain moving wheat to PNW ports.

The new Sandpoint Junction Connector rail bridge will allow two-way traffic across Lake Pend Oreille in Idaho, helping improve efficiency for wheat and other grain moving by rail from the Northern Plains to the PNW for export. Source: BNSF.

CPKC Network

CPKC railroad logoAnother noteworthy project is a $100 million investment commissioned by Kansas City Southern in October 2022 (now part of the Canadian Pacific Kansas City rail network) to construct a new international rail bridge connecting Laredo, Texas, U.S. to Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, Mexico. The bridge expansion will allow trains to operate in both directions simultaneously, granting more economical access to the U.S. supply chain for Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. wheat.

Government Investment

Complimenting private investment into the domestic logistics systems, the U.S. federal government provides significant support to the U.S. grain supply chain to uphold its safety and dependability.

In September, the Department of Transportation Federal Railroad Administration granted $1.4 billion to finance 70 rail improvement projects through the Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements program. The largest grant (nearly $73 million) is for the Palouse River and Coulee City Railroad (PCC) improvements by the Washington State Department of Transportation. The PCC, a regional shoreline railroad, carries wheat traffic in major wheat-growing counties in eastern Washington, and the upgrades will help improve wheat shipments to elevators and seaports in the PNW by allowing for higher speeds and larger railcars.

Prevention Is the Best Medicine

While capital investment and improvement are vital to maintaining the efficiency of the U.S. rail systems and promoting wheat exports in the face of strong global competition, the U.S. supply chain benefits most from continuous investment in maintenance and repairs by private companies and state and federal governments. The backbone of a dependable, reliable system lies in the safety and proper function of the infrastructure and assets that make up the supply chain.

An important example of the commitment to preventive maintenance is the upcoming lock and dam closure on the Columbia Snake River System. In January 2024, the Army Core of Engineers will be performing maintenance on major components at the John Day and McNary dams on the Columbia River and at the Lower Monumental, Little Goose, and Lower Granite dams on the Snake River, resulting in an extended river closure from January 14 to March 29, 2024. This maintenance represents a forward-thinking investment by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to ensure this critical waterway remains operational for decades to come.

Mississippi River Study

In addition, USACE is conducting a 5-year, Lower Mississippi River Comprehensive Management Study that it says will yield recommendations for effective and practical management of the Mississippi River from Cape Girardeau, MO, to the Gulf of Mexico, a key U.S. supply chain serving growing export demand for U.S. soft red winter wheat.

According to the USACE, the purpose of the study is to identify recommendations for the comprehensive management of the region across multiple purposes, including navigation, flood risk management, and environmental restoration.

The combined impact of preventive maintenance, efficiency improvements, and significant capital investment are key components that differentiate the U.S. wheat supply chain and help the U.S. wheat export supply system remain the most reliable in the world.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“The Commodity Credit Corporation and USDA’s market development and aid programs are critically important at this time, and with this additional support we can strengthen U.S agriculture’s presence in existing markets, open up new market opportunities, and build on our relationships and connections to ensure that high-quality American agriculture and food products reach where they are needed in the world.” – U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announcing a new program adding funds to support U.S. export market development and international food assistance.

USW, State Commissions Welcome COFCO Trade Team

USW Hong Kong/China regional office is undertaking a first-hand look at the U.S. wheat supply chain and quality management systems for 8 wheat and flour industry managers with China’s COFCO agribusiness company. The trade team is planned to demonstrate to these purchase and quality managers that U.S. farmers, strong rail and river transport system, third-party quality certification and economical ocean freight from the PNW and Gulf provide a trusted source of wheat. State wheat commissions in Oregon, North Dakota, Texas, Kansas, and Ohio are hosting the team through early November. China’s U.S. wheat purchases have ramped up again in 2023/24 and, as of Oct. 12, 2023, include about 680,000 metric tons (MT) of soft red winter and 69,000 MT of hard red spring wheat.

USW staff and the COFCO team pause for a photo at the Wheat Marketing Center in Portland.

USW staff and the COFCO team pause for a photo at the Wheat Marketing Center in Portland.

Celebrating World Bread Day

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Manila, Philippines, office joined a celebration of World Bread Day (Oct. 16) at a Baking Demonstration Festival in Manila October 19 and 20. This was a joint project with the Filipino-Chinese Baking Association, Inc., and the Philippine Society of Baking that presented “BREAD OF THE WORLD,” filled with exciting new ideas, trends and innovations. The event featured free tastings, shared recipes to indulge in the goodness of baking fresh breads together. Several classes of U.S. wheat are imported by the Philippine milling industry to supply most of the flour consumed in that country.

Support For Conservation and Climate-Smart Agriculture

The USDA reported on October 16 that $1.77 billion has been issued through the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to agriculture producers and landowners. USDA Secretary Vilsack said, “These producers and landowners voluntarily place their land under contract and, in the spirit of stewardship, agree to establish and maintain prescribed conservation practices for the life of contract.” There are conservation efforts on more than 23 million acres of private land and a 21% increase in the acres enrolled since 2021.

Key Washington State Rail Line

The Federal Railroad Administration selected the state of Washington to receive a substantial $72.8 million Fiscal Year 2022 Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvement (CRISI) grant for capital improvements on the Palouse River and Coulee City (PCC) short line railroad. “This grant will allow the grain industry to respond to a critical need for improved transportation infrastructure and is deeply appreciated,” Washington Grain Commission CEO Casey Chumrau said. The railroad is an essential component of the Eastern Washington agricultural supply chain, facilitating the movement of the state’s high-quality wheat and barley to larger rail lines and on to both domestic and international markets.

National Wheat Yield Contest Winners

The National Wheat Yield Contest has announced the achievements of its 24 national winners, hailing from 12 different states, who have achieved an average yield of 144 bushels per acre (355 MT/hectare) across all categories. The National Wheat Foundation noted that growers demonstrated exceptional resilience this year. Despite facing adversity, with 59% of winter wheat production affected by drought on May 9, and 75% of spring wheat production impacted on July 25, these dedicated individuals showcased unwavering commitment to maximizing their wheat productivity in spite of environmental challenges. Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

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Video: 2023 Crop Quality Report Available, USW Seminars Scheduled in Seven Regions Around the World

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has published its 2023 Crop Quality Report, which includes grade, flour and baking data for all six U.S. wheat classes. The report compiles comprehensive data from the analysis of hundreds of samples conducted during and after harvest by our partner organizations and laboratories. The report provides essential, objective information to help buyers get the wheat they need at the best value possible.

In this short video, USW Vice President of Programs Erica Oakley talks about the 2023 report, while Director of Programs Catherine Miller discusses the USW Crop Quality Seminars scheduled around the world in coming weeks . . .

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McGarry Putting Away His Ledger After 40 Years at USW

McGarry was recognized for his 40 years of dedicated service to USW.

McGarry, USW’s Vice President of Finance, began as an accountant in 1983.

In late summer of 1983, Kevin McGarry left Ohio for the Nation’s Capital, where he would soon have two separate job offers to consider. One was with U.S. Wheat Associates (USW). The other was with Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Baily Circus.

Wheat farmers and flour millers, or clowns and elephants? McGarry didn’t have much experience with either cast of characters, but he went with his instincts. Exactly four decades later, he is retiring as Vice President of Finance at USW. His retirement is effective Nov. 1.

Starting as an entry-level accountant and working his way up to lead the Finance department has allowed McGarry to visit USW offices around the world – he took more than 50 international trips during his career to conduct audits and manage USW’s books.

“U.S. wheat helps feed the world; something everyone who works for the organization can be proud of,” he said. “I always kept that in mind, whether it was working with our farmers here at home or while visiting our offices in other countries.”

USW is Family

McGarry grew up in Akron, Ohio – the tire capital of the world. His father was a mechanic on the Goodyear Blimps. “I didn’t know a whole lot about wheat, agriculture or the export process when I came to USW,” he said. “What I discovered early on, and what was confirmed over and over through the years, is that the people in this industry are family, and what you would call ‘salt of the earth.’  Whether it was here in the U.S. or in our overseas offices, the USW staff, and the people I’ve interacted with have been the best part of my career. The farmers and board members were tremendous to work with. They really made these 40 years a joy.”

USW staff in its Arlington office celebrated the pending retirement of Vice President of Finance Kevin McGarry. McGarry, who will retire Nov. 1, has spent 40 years with the organization.

USW staff in Arlington recently celebrated the pending retirement of Vice President of Finance Kevin McGarry (seated with cake) by hosting a luncheon and reception. McGarry will retire Nov. 1.

USW President Vince Peterson has often joked that McGarry joined USW as an accountant but “quickly rose through the ranks to be its plumber, mechanic, electrician, party planner, HR manager and a host of other jobs” at USW’s Arlington Office.

Peterson said he has valued McGarry’s skills, dedication and ability to look ahead.

“Kevin has been a big part of our success over the past 40 years and is responsible for the fact that we have an organization that is financially sound, well-funded, and well run,” said Peterson, who joined USW shortly after McGarry and has worked closely with him ever since.

It was McGarry who led the charge to purchase its current office condominium 15 years ago – and then pay off its mortgage earlier this year. Both decisions turned out to be sound financial moves for USW.

McGarry poses with USW's Planning and Administrative Assistant Nada Obaid, left, and Meeting Planner Stacy Meade during a reception honoring McGarry.

McGarry poses with USW’s Planning and Administrative Assistant Nada Obaid, left, and Meeting Planner Stacy Meade during a reception honoring McGarry.

Speaking of Decisions

As a young man with a degree in accounting from the University of Akron, McGarry made the decision to move to Washington, D.C. without a job in hand. But he soon had offers from USW and Ringling Bros.

Was joining the circus a serious consideration?

“The job was ‘Road Controller’ and they were serious, and I was serious,” McGarry said.  “They flew me to Minneapolis to witness the circus in action on the road. They showed me the train compartment where I would live on the train. The job was 100% travel, except for about one month when the circus was down. At that time, a lot of their ticket receipts were cash. I would oversee converting that cash to payroll, because the circus workers wanted their pay in cash.”

After much consideration, including the fact that the USW job involved international travel, McGarry chose USW, which didn’t have a train for him to live on, but provided a solid organization and an admirable role in U.S. agriculture.  McGarry mentioned that when he started at USW, computers were scarce so he accounted for 16 overseas offices’ expenses by pencil on large green ledger sheets.

Plans in Retirement

McGarry will remain available “on call” to USW and his successor, Kurt Coppens, for a year as a senior advisor. Otherwise, he plans to continue his work renovating a pre-1800s house he purchased in a small town in Delaware. “The house came with a baby grand piano that I don’t know how to play, so I might learn how to play it,” he said.  McGarry recently earned an associate degree in auto mechanics taking night classes, so he’ll also enjoy his car hobby.

Does retiring McGarry have any regrets about 28-year-old McGarry not taking the job with the circus?

“I’m sure I would have a lot of good stories to tell had I gone that route,” he said. “But I have good stories to tell from my time with U.S. Wheat. The stories might not be as entertaining as circus stories, but USW does meaningful work, I’ve had a great career and have made great friends with great people. I’m humbled, and very appreciative.”

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World Wheat Prices Hover at Lower Levels With Bullish Factors Lurking

Since the start of the year, world wheat prices have consistently trended lower, with Russian wheat maintaining its position as the world’s cheapest origin. With the Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest now complete, it brings about the question: have markets touched their seasonal lows, and in what direction will they go next? In this article, we will evaluate the underlying market factors driving recent price trends and highlight factors to watch moving forward.

A Downward Trend

Following the initial shock of Russia’s Ukraine invasion in 2022 with volatility on the way, world wheat prices have steadily decreased. From January 2023 to present, world wheat prices are down $77/MT, on average.

Russia’s influence in the world market is driving this trend in world price levels. According to the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Russian production was estimated at 85.0 MMT, 5.0 MMT above the five-year average. Likewise, 2023/24 Russian exports are forecast at 50.0 MMT, the highest on record. The ample supplies of Russian wheat and significant export flows have put downward pressure on the world wheat market. As a result, the October 23, 2023 AgriCensus price data puts Russian wheat with 12.5% protein (on a dry moisture basis) at $225/MT FOB, their lowest price since September 2020 and the cheapest on the world market.

Over the same time, world wheat demand has softened. For the first time since 2018/19, USDA projects a reduction in global use, with the October WASDE putting demand at 792 MMT, down from 796 MMT the year prior.

Line chart showing world wheat prices in several countries are on a downward trend.

Since January 2023, world wheat prices have decreased by 17%, weighed by ample supplies exported from Russia. Source: AgirCensus Price Data, October 23, 2023.

More Than Meets the Eye

At first glance, the global supply and demand situation shows ample Black Sea grain exports and softening global demand, the perfect pairing for lower global wheat prices.

Looking more closely, ending stocks in major exporting countries are forecast to fall to the lowest level since 2012/13, demonstrating a tighter global balance sheet that is, apparently, not reflected in current price levels.

Bar chart showing a downward trend in ending stocks of wheat in major exporting countries and world wheat prices.

Ending stocks in major exporting countries are down 10% on the year and 29% from 2017/18. Despite the decreased stocks, wheat prices sit near 2021 levels, failing to reflect the tighter world balance sheet. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report.

Additionally, Southern Hemisphere wheat production, particularly Australian output, is a factor to watch. As the El Niño weather event develops in the equatorial Pacific, dry weather is expected to prevail in Australia. As a result, the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates put Australian production at 24.5 MMT, down 1.5 MMT from September and 15.2 MMT below the year prior. However, recent rains in Australia may help improve yields, bringing an additional bearish influence to the world market.

Beyond Traditional Fundamentals

In addition to supply and demand, macroeconomic factors have played an increasingly important role in world wheat prices. The U.S. dollar was strong a year ago, but softened over the first half of 2023. However, beginning in July, the dollar index shifted up again, driven by a sustained hawkish view held by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of higher interest rates. As importers are keenly aware, a strong dollar adds cost to wheat purchases.

On the bullish side, commercial funds have become “net short” in the Chicago Board of Trade Wheat (CBOT) futures. The trend indicates that commercial investors believe prices will continue trending lower. If the sentiment shifts and prices rise, funds will be forced to cover the positions, potentially adding significant volatility and upward pressure on Chicago wheat futures and the market as a whole.

Chart showing the volume of net short positions in wheat futures since early 2022 indicating an uptick in short positions.

Speculative funds hold a net short position in CBOT Wheat futures. If sentiment shifts, forcing a massive covering of the short positions, prices will skyrocket; thus, contributing additional short-term volatility and bullish influence on the market. Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission Data.

Finally, we cannot discuss global wheat prices without addressing the geopolitical risks associated with continued conflicts. Grain continues to flow from the Black Sea, and the market outlook has stabilized. Nevertheless, sentiment could shift quickly if a new development or escalation occurs in the conflict. Similarly, the unknowns of the war in the Middle East could have a detrimental impact on oil prices, directly impacting ocean freight rates and dampening the global economy.

Key Takeaways

In summary, many lurking influences may impact world wheat prices, both bullish and bearish, that are not yet priced into world markets. Buyers should closely monitor the Southern Hemisphere wheat harvest developments, pay attention to upcoming updates to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, and stay well informed regarding changes in the world macroeconomic situation.

With many unknowns, it is vital to maintain a dialogue with your local U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) office and suppliers to capitalize on opportunities to maximize the value of U.S. wheat.

By Tyllor Ledford, USW Market Analyst

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World Pasta Day Puts U.S. Durum Wheat in the Spotlight

World Pasta Day is the result of the inaugural World Pasta Congress held in 1995. It is held each Oct. 25 to promote pasta consumption.

World Pasta Day is the result of the inaugural World Pasta Congress held in 1995. It is held each Oct. 25 to promote pasta consumption.

Past U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Chairman Michael Edgar shared a quick story during the organization’s Summer Board Meeting in July that seems worth resharing in October.

After all, Oct. 25 is World Pasta Day.

“In 1981, U.S. Wheat Associates brought an international trade team to the desert southwest to learn about the durum crop,” Edgar, who represents the Arizona Grain Research and Promotion Council, told his fellow USW board members. “And we are still selling durum wheat to that customer today, 42 years later. It shows you the value of bringing trade teams and meeting buyers from foreign markets to learn what they are looking for in wheat.”

For pasta makers, they are mostly looking for durum and Desert Durum®. The desert subclass of durum is a registered certification mark owned by the Arizona Grain Research and Promotion Council and the California Wheat Commission.  U.S. Northern durum is grown in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Montana.  On World Pasta Day, it is fitting to remember Edgar’s story, a confirmation of the importance of engaging customers and potential customers of U.S. wheat.

About 70% of U.S. durum exports go to the European Union, with Italy taking a large portion of that for pasta production.

World Pasta Day is an opportunity for U.S. durum producers to take pride in the role they play in putting high quality pasta on the plates of consumers around the world.

World Pasta Day is an opportunity for U.S. durum producers to take pride in the role they play in putting high quality pasta on the plates of consumers around the world.

Durum Remains King

For U.S. durum producers, World Pasta Day is an opportunity to take pride in the role they play in putting high quality pasta on the plates of consumers around the world.

There are several reasons for the preference:

  • In all durum food products, one quality factor is the most critical to the consumer – color. In its purest form, pasta is water and durum semolina.
  • The gluten in durum semolina is strong but not particularly elastic. Pasta made from this type of flour will keep its shape and texture after cooking.
  • Durum semolina is high in protein, fiber, iron, B vitamins such as folic acid, as well as lutein (for eyes).
  • U.S. durum has a large kernel size, allowing millers to benefit from higher extraction rates.
  • Desert Durum® is harvested and shipped at a very low moisture content. This advantage to millers contributes to efficient transportation costs and high extraction rates.
  • Couscous, which is also made with durum, is large semolina boiled and eaten as an alternative to rice.

Celebrating Pasta on a Global Scale

World Pasta Day was the result of 40 pasta makers from around the world gathering in Rome, Italy in 1995 for the inaugural World Pasta Congress. The goal of the special day is to promote pasta consumption, as well as celebrating its culinary and cultural importance.

The International Pasta Organization (IPO) was formed on Oct. 25, 2005, and was formally constituted in Italy a year later. IPO coordinates international communications aimed at safeguarding the product, develops common strategies to promote the worldwide consumption of pasta, and creates and manages information and food education.

While celebrations vary in each country, World Pasta Day focuses on consumers – the people around the world who enjoy eating some of the 600 or so shapes and sizes of pasta.

Every Day is Pasta Day

For USW, the effort to promote all six classes of U.S. wheat around the world has some traction with pasta consumption.

Each November during the USW Crop Quality Seminars held around the world, one stop brings special attention to durum wheat and the states that grow it: Europe, specifically one European country known for its love of pasta. Buyers from Italy are especially curious each year to hear about the U.S. durum crop and there are always a lot of questions.

This year’s crop should make pasta makers happy.

Ron Rubin, who grows Desert Durum® in  Brawley, Cal., reported that while production is down slightly with a lower planted area, the crop remains consistent and a very reliable source of high-quality durum to end-use customers.

“The 2023 crop produced above average yields with ideal growing conditions throughout the season,” Rubin said. “We estimate that 99 percent of the Imperial Valley crop graded Number One HAD.”

As for Northern durum, the Durum wheat Quality & Pasta Processing Laboratory at North Dakota State University is completing testing on the composites for the full northern durum regional crop quality report and USW’s 2023 Crop Quality Report.

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2023 Hard Red Spring Crop Offers Familiar Dough Strength, Improved Baking Functions

The 2023 U.S. hard red spring (HRS) crop was produced under a wide range of growing conditions. A late spring delayed planting but the early moisture helped establish the crop. Then conditions across the region turned hot and dry with only spotty areas of rain. The rain returned and delayed mid- to late-harvest. Ultimately, total production reached 12.7 million metric tons (MMT), 14% more than in 2022.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) reports hard red spring quality highlights for three export locations. First is for HRS from the western region that supplies export facilities in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Quality data for HRS that moves from the eastern region to the Gulf of Mexico and to the Great Lakes are reported together. The complete 2023 USW Crop Quality Report and detailed by-class reports are being produced now and will be posted online over the next few weeks.

Close up photo of hard red spring wheat kernels.

2023 HRS PNW-Exportable Overview and Highlights

The 2023 U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat crop grown in the western (PNW-exportable) region offers strong grading characteristics, good protein content, typical dough strength, and improved bake parameters compared to recent years. 

The average grade for the 2023 PNW-exportable HRS harvest survey is U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring (NS), with 84% of samples grading U.S. No. 1.

Average test weight is 60.7 lb/bu (79.8 kg/hl).

The PNW-exportable crop has lower VITREOUS KERNEL (DHV) content, averaging 61% compared to 88% in 2022 and 84% for a 5-year average.

Wheat protein averages 14.1% (12% mb), below 2022 and the 5-year average. Distribution of protein is 32% below 13.5% protein and 40% above 14.5% protein.

Average 1000 kernel weight (TKW) is 32.1 g, well above 2022 and the 5-year average.

Buhler Laboratory Mill flour yield averages 66.7%, above 2022 and the 5-year average. Lab mill settings are not adjusted to account for kernel parameter shifts between crop years. The extraction is calculated on a tempered wheat basis.

Average flour ash is 0.48%, lower than last year and the 5-year average.

Wet gluten averages 32.4%, lower than 2022 and the 5-year average.

Amylograph average of 639 BU is much lower than 2022 and lower than the 5-year average, reflective of isolated areas with harvest rains.

Dough properties suggest a crop that exhibits strong characteristics with greater extensibility, compared to 2022 and the 5-year average.

Farinograph peak and stability times of 7.6 and 12.2 min, respectively, indicate the PNW-exportable crop is similar to 2022 and the 5-year average. Absorption values average 62.8%, down from 2022 and the 5-year average.

The average Alveograph P/L ratio is 0.68 compared to 0.74 in 2022, and the W-value is 384 (10-4 J), down from 396 last year.

The overall extensibility and resistance to extension of the 135-min Extensograph are 13.4 cm and 1001 BU, compared to 12.9 cm and 927 BU last year indicating slightly stronger, yet more extensible dough properties compared to last year.

The average loaf volume is 993 cc, above 940 cc in 2022, and 962 for a 5-year average.

Average bake absorption is 65.4%, lower than 2022 and the 5-year average.

2023 Gulf/Great Lakes-Exportable Overview and Highlights

The 2023 U.S. hard red spring crop grown in the eastern (Gulf/Great Lakes-exportable) region offers a nice balance of protein, strong dough characteristics and very good bake parameters. Overall, this is a highly functional crop.

The average grade is U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring (NS), with 95% of samples grading U.S. No. 1.

Average test weight is 61.7 lb/bu (81.2 kg/hl), lower than 2022 but similar to the 5-year average.

Average vitreous kernel (DHV) content is 44%, lower than last year’s 59% and the 5-year average of 65% due to late-season rain.

Wheat protein averages 14.3% (12% mb) with 21% of the surveyed crop below 13.5%, and 42% above 14.5%.

Average 1000 kernel weight (TKW) is 36.6 g, well above 2022 and the 5-year average.

Buhler Laboratory Mill flour yield averages 66.8, above 2022 but below the 5-year average. Lab mill settings are not adjusted to account for kernel parameter shifts between crop years. The extraction is calculated on a tempered wheat basis.

Average flour ash is 0.47%, similar to 2002, and lower than the 5-year average of 0.51%.

Wet gluten averages 33.2%, slightly lower than 2022 and the 5-year average.

Amylograph average of 566 BU is down from 2022 but similar to the 5-year average.

Dough properties suggest a stronger, slightly less extensible crop as compared to last year and the 5-year average.

Farinograph peak and stability times of 8.2 and 16.1 minutes respectively indicate the Gulf/Great Lakes-exportable crop is much stronger than average. Absorption values average 62.1%, down slightly from 2022, and similar to the 5-year average.

The average Alveograph P/L ratio is 0.78 compared to 0.63 for the 5-year average, and the W-value is 411 (10-4 J), compared to 388 for the 5-year average.

The overall extensibility and resistance to extension of the 135-min Extensograph are 14.0 cm and 1171 BU, compared to 15.6 cm and 743 BU last year indicating stronger, less extensible dough properties.

The average loaf volume is 971 cc, higher than 2022, and similar to the 5-year average.

Average bake absorption is 63.8%, significantly lower than 2022, and lower than the 5-year average.

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2023 Hard Red Winter Crop: Unexpected Production; Excellent Quality

The 2023 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) growing season saw a mixed bag of conditions from another severe drought in the southern and central Great Plains to nearly ideal rain and temperatures in the northern plains and Pacific Northwest (PNW).

Total production, while still quite low historically, reached 16.4 million metric tons (MMT), a 13% increase from 2022. As for functional qualities, this is a sound crop that meets or exceeds typical HRW contract specifications and should provide high value to customers.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) reports hard red winter quality highlights for HRW grown in regions that supply feed into export facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and for export facilities in the PNW. The complete 2023 USW Crop Quality Report and detailed by-class reports are being produced now and will be posted online over the next few weeks.

Gulf-Exportable Hard Red Winter Crop Highlights

The average grade is U.S. No. 2 HRW with 84% of the crop grading No. 2 or better.

Test weights trended lower this year with an overall average of 59.7 lb/bu (78.6 kg/hl).

Kernel data indicate uniform and dense kernels with 69% exhibiting large size, a much higher level than in previous years.

Protein content average is 12.9% (12% mb), with 63% of Gulf samples 12.5% or higher.

Alveograph W average value of 260 (10-4 J) is exceptionally high for dough strength and an L value of 110 (mm) indicates very good extensibility.

Farinograph peak and stability averages of 4.9 and 8.9 minutes, respectively, are well within industry target ranges.

Average bake absorption is 64.6%, significantly higher than the 5-year average.

Average loaf volume is 936 cc, comparable to last year and indicative of excellent baking quality.

PNW-Exportable Hard Red Winter Crop Highlights

The average grade for the 2023 PNW-exportable crop is U.S. No. 1 HRW with 81% of samples grading No. 1 and 93% grading No. 2 or better.

PNW test weights trended slightly lower this year with an overall average of 60.7 lb/bu (79.8 kg/hl).

Protein content average is 11.8% (12% mb) with 59% of the crop 11.5% or higher.

Wheat moisture average is 10.4%, adding additional value for milling customers.

Kernel data indicate uniform and dense kernels with 69% exhibiting large size, which is a significant increase from last year and comparable to the 5-year average.

Alveograph W values were exceptionally high for dough strength at 296 (10-4 J) and the extensibility L values are high at 95 (mm).

Dough properties suggest an acceptable crop that is comparable to the 5-year average.

Loaf volume average is 868 cc, comparable to the 5-year average and above U.S. industry targets of 850 cc.

 

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Hard White Wheat Production is Up Significantly in 2023 With Good Functionality

A much larger 2023 U.S. hard white (HW) wheat crop also shows acceptable quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products like pan breads, Asian noodles, and steamed breads. The Pacific Northwest (PNW), California and Southern Plains composites all show acceptable to excellent bread baking potential according to respective protein contents. Performance in Asian noodle applications and steamed breads is somewhat more variable.

Photo shows a combine harvesting hard white wheat with a green field, hillside and partly cloudy blue sky behind.

U.S. hard white (HW) is grown in Nebraska (above), Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, and California.

2023 Crop Highlights

Planted and harvested area for the 2023 HW crop reflect high abandonment in the Southern Plains due to drought. USDA estimates total HW planted area at 616,800 acres and harvested area at 473,520 acres, with abandonment of 23% compared to 15% in 2022.

Production was supported by late-season rain in Colorado and Nebraska, and much better growing conditions in the PNW. USDA’s estimate of total winter and spring HW wheat is 0.62 million metric tons (MMT) for 2023, 32% more than 0.47 MMT in 2022.

The grade for low- and medium-protein composites for California and the Southern Plains grade as U.S. No. 1. Very high protein composites from the PNW and Southern Plains grade as U.S. No. 2 primarily due to lower test weights

Test weights range from 59.3 to 64.4 lb/bu (78.0 to 84.6 kg/hl), a wider spread than in the 2022 crop.

Protein contents range from 10.8 to 13.7% (12% mb) with wheat moisture ranging from 9.9% to 12.8%.

1,000 kernel weights are equal to or greater than 30.0 g except for the low-protein Southern Plains composite at 29.6 g.

Falling number values are equal to or greater than 338 sec for all composites.

Buhler Laboratory Mill straight-grade flour extractions range from 69.8 to 70.6% on a tempered wheat weight basis, L* values (whiteness) from 91.6 to 92.4, and flour ash 0.42 to 0.50% (14% mb). Flour extractions should not be compared to previous years as the calculation has shifted from a total product weight basis to a tempered wheat weight basis. Commercial mills should see better extractions, although some adjustments may be necessary for portions of the crop with lower test weights and 1,000 kernel weights.

Flour wet gluten contents range 23.3 to 33.9% depending on protein content.

Starch pasting properties including amylograph and RVA peak viscosities range from 615 BU/2455 cP to 834 BU/2881 cP and indicate the crop will produce noodles with acceptable texture.

Dough properties show this year’s crop has lower water absorption values, weaker mixing properties, and less extensibility compared to last year.

Baking evaluation for all composites shows acceptable to excellent baking performance relative to protein content, with bake absorptions in the range of 62.6 to 68.5%, loaf volumes of 773 to 1026 cc, and crumb grain and texture scores that are similar to or better than a typical hard red winter (HRW) flour.

For Chinese white salted noodle performance, L* values are acceptable for all composites except the PNW and Southern Plains very high protein composites. The sensory color stability scores are excellent for the California medium protein composite with all other composites rating as poor. Using 60% extraction patent flour is recommended to improve noodle color while maintaining noodle texture.  Cooked noodle texture is softer than the control for all composites primarily due to lower starch pasting viscosities and water absorptions than last year.

Chinese yellow alkaline noodle L* values are similar or better than the control for parboiled noodles from the California and Southern Plains composites. Cooked noodle texture is softer for all composites primarily due to lower starch pasting viscosities and water absorptions compared to last year.

Steamed bread results show most composites have acceptable specific volumes. Total scores are lower than the control flour due to smaller volumes, tighter and yellower internal crumbs, and surface blisters. Blending 25% soft white (SW) flour with high-protein HW flour may improve overall steamed bread quality.

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Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“I send my personal regards to all our Kansas Wheat Farmers here from South America. We will continue doing our best. I want them to know hard red winter is the most important class exported to our region. Today almost 10% of total U.S. wheat exports are coming to South America, and we know that there is a tremendous opportunity to continue developing markets for U.S. wheat farmers.” – U.S. Wheat Associates Regional Director, South America, Miguel Galdos, on the “Wheat’s On My Mind” podcast from Kansas Wheat.

October WASDE

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for October for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Supplies are raised 85 million bushels. Exports remain at 700 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are raised by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15% from last year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks. Read the entire report here (link to: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde).

Remembering M.S. Swaminathan

The crop scientist who invited American crop breeder Dr. Norman Borlaug to India and is considered the father of India’s Green Revolution died Sept. 28 and has been the subject of several remembrances. When receiving the 1970 Nobel Peace Prize Dr. Borlaug credited Dr. Swaminathan with seeing the potential of cross breeding with Mexican dwarf wheat varieties to ensure standability in the new, higher yielding wheat. In 1987, Dr. Swarminathan won the first World Food Prize established by Borlaug.

Borlaug Dialogue 2023

Offered in live and virtual format the week of Oct. 16 and 23, this event will focus this year on harnessing innovation, adaptation, and diversification to improve systemic resilience, recover from shocks, and sustainably nourish all people. Building on Borlaug’s legacy of tackling immense global challenges, this year’s Borlaug Dialogue will both acknowledge how far the world has come and how to make positive strides toward a food-secure future. Learn more here.

Do Yourself a Flavor!

The North Dakota Wheat Commission encourages everyone to celebrate National Pasta Month in October. The Commission has celebrated Pasta Month for decades as a way to recognize the state’s durum producers, mills, and pasta manufacturers and the role they play in putting pasta on the plates of consumers around the world.  Each year, a new theme is developed to celebrate the occasion.  This year’s theme is “Do Yourself a Flavor!” — an encouragement for consumers to enjoy their favorite pasta dish or try a new recipe.

Demonstrating Federal Wheat Inspection Value

USW Beijing and the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) held a seminar on U.S. wheat inspection and certification in Guangzhou, China, in September. Eighteen mills from across China sent 32 participants to the seminar conducted by FGIS grain marketing specialist Barry Gomoll and Shirley Lu, USW Country Director, China, and held at the Sino American Baking School. USDA Agricultural Trade Office Director JonAnn Flemings addressed the customers and emphasized the long-standing commitment to Chinese customers. Read more about the value of third party, objective U.S. wheat inspection here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

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