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Perspectives From the Field on 2023 Drought

The impact of drought in the Central and Southern U.S. Plains is the dominant topic of conversation about the 2023/24 hard red winter (HRW) crop. Industry participants agree there will be a lot of HRW fields abandoned before harvest from Texas to South Dakota. Rain expected this week is a hopeful sign but likely comes too late to provide extensive recovery.

Following are the latest perspectives on the now two year long drought from state wheat commission executives and media covering the market.

In his April 21 weekly report, Kansas Wheat Chief Executive Officer Justin Gilpin compared past drought year abandonment, specifically in 1989, to 2023. That year unharvested planted acres hit 28.2% following drought conditions that Gilpin and others said are very similar to the current situation.

This chart shows historial perspective on the effect of drought on harvested area and abandonment of wheat acres over 30 years in Kansas.

Another Year of Abandonment? Data shared by Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin compares planted wheat acres, harvested acres, and the percent of abandonment since 1973. Gilpin said many industry folks compare the drought of 2023 with a very similar situation in 1989 when abandonment reached more than 28%.

A Crazy, Common Theme

“What is crazy in reading through high abandonment years, there is a common theme,” Gilpin said, “poor conditions through March into April…then, heavy rains began in May through June impacting harvest, but too late to help the western Kansas wheat crop.”

USDA’s April 24 crop conditions report echoed Gilpin’s comparison. It rated 26% of U.S. winter wheat in good to excellent condition, the lowest for this time of year since 1989. Reuters also noted “wheat in portions of central Kansas may have suffered damage from cold temperatures over the April 22-23 weekend. It is important to recognize that USDA’s winter wheat report includes the 2023 soft red winter (SRW) and soft white (SW) winter crops that are generally in much better condition.

In a call with state wheat commission representatives April 20, Darby Campsey with the Texas Wheat Producers Board reported that 30% of the state is in exceptional to extreme drought. In the Texas Panhandle, “much of the dryland wheat has failed.” Only 16% of Texas wheat is in good to excellent condition, mainly in the “black soil” region where mainly SRW is grown.

Dry as Death Valley

“In those regions that are in exceptional and extreme drought, you can certainly see why things are not favorable in northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle regions where we have the majority of our top wheat producing counties,” said Oklahoma Wheat Executive Director Mike Schulte.

There has been less than 0.8 cm of rain in that area of Oklahoma the last 220 days. Mark Hodges of Plains Grains noted that the Oklahoma Panhandle has received less moisture than Death Valley, California, the past 12 months.

“I don’t know that the rest of the world is taking into account how bad it is in the Southern Plains,” Schulte said in an interview with Oklahoma Farm Report. “I am hoping at some point in time the market is going to react to that.”

This map and data indicates that 2023 is the driest year on record for many counties in Oklahoma's western and panhandle regions following a two-year drought.

Driest in More Than 100 Years. The two-year-old drought has hit Oklahoma’s main wheat producing regions hard. In 3 counties, August 2022 through March 2023 was the driest on records going back to 1895.

Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota

Southeastern Colorado is also within the exceptional, long-term drought area. HRW and hard white (HW) wheat grown in northeastern Colorado has fared better with more rain and snow, but “needs more rain in May” to get closer to its yield potential. The state commission there reported that while 23% of wheat is in good to excellent conditions, 38% is rated poor to very poor.

Sub-soil moisture in the western and panhandle regions of Nebraska remains low with HRW and HW wheat in similar condition as in Colorado. Fields are “patchy” with 40% rated poor to very poor.

Abandonment of HRW in South Dakota is also a concern reported South Dakota Wheat Commission Executive Director Reid Christopherson. He said it was so dry last fall a significant portion of seeded fields did not emerge. After receiving more moisture over the winter, South Dakota HRW is now emerging, but if stands are not good, farmers may make crop insurance claims and replant to corn, Christopherson said.

Rain Too Late for Wheat

Returning to Justin Gilpin’s note that past drought years have seen rain coming too late for wheat crops, sure enough widespread rain was in the forecast for the Central and Southern Plains the week of April 24 “and could be substantial in some areas,” according to a weather brief by DTN Meteorologist Jon Baranick. “That will help to reduce the impact of the drought but will not make much of a dent in it. Additional showers could be possible late this week with another system. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions, but the increased soil moisture would favor corn [sorghum] and soybean planting.”

Farmers facing the difficult situation of losing a crop to drought that they worked hard to produce and the uncertainty of its impact on their family’s livelihood, have only the perspective of the generations before them to rely on.

“The key to remember here is that droughts are cyclical,” wrote columnist Brandon Case in the Pratt (KS) Tribune recently. “The land of Kansas has suffered from droughts long before it became a state and it will continue to experience droughts in the future. No one knows how long the current one will last and about the only thing any of us can do is pray for rain.”

 

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2022 Hard White Wheat Crop Offers Quality Performance in Milling, Baking

The 2022 hard white (HW) samples show good quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products, including pan breads, Asian noodles and steamed breads. The Pacific Northwest (PNW), California and Southern Plains composites all show acceptable to excellent bread baking potential according to their respective protein contents. For Asian noodle applications, using 60% extraction patent flour is recommended to improve noodle color while maintaining noodle texture. For steamed breads, it is recommended that high protein HW flour be blended with a portion of soft white (SW) flour to improve product quality.Map and graphics showing the region and number of hard white samples analyzed for quality in 2022

2022 CROP HIGHLIGHTS

PRODUCTION for the 2022 HW crop is 472,308 MT, down 33%compared to last year and the 5-year average. Much of the decrease is due to extreme drought conditions experienced across the Southern Plains. Seeded acres were also down for winter and spring planted hard white compared to 2021.

GRADE average for all composites is U.S. No. 1.

TEST WEIGHT averages range from 60.2 to 62.6 lb/bu (79.2 to 82.3 kg/hl).

WHEAT MOISTURE ranges are 8.4 to 10.5%; WHEAT PROTEIN 11.3 to 13.9% (12% mb).

1000 KERNEL WEIGHT for the Southern Plains very high-, Pacific Northwest very high- and California high-protein composites are 26.6, 27.8 and 28.2 g, respectively. All others are 30.0 g or higher.

KERNEL CHARACTERISTICS include kernel hardness averages of 50.6 to 78.7 and kernel diameters of 2.47 to 2.86 mm.

FALLING NUMBER averages 382 sec or higher for all composites.

LABORATORY MILL straight-grade flour extractions range 70.2 to 74.3%, L* values (whiteness) 92.2 to 92.9, flour protein 10.9 to 13.3% (14% mb) and flour ash 0.43 to 0.51% (14% mb).

Extreme drought conditions in the Southern Plains caused production of hard white wheat to decline in 2022. However, samples of the crop show good quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products.

Production of hard white wheat declined in 2022, but samples of the crop show good quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products.

 

Flour and Dough Data

Flour WET GLUTEN contents range 28.2 to 35.4% depending on flour protein content.

AMYLOGRAPH peak viscosities are between 759 and 1076 BU for all composites.

FARINOGRAPH water absorptions range 57.2 to 65.1% and stability times 8.0 to 40.3 min, exhibiting medium to strong dough characteristics. HW farinograph water absorption is usually similar to that of HRW, but historically stability time is longer, indicating more tolerance to overmixing.

EXTENSOGRAPH data at 135 min rest shows maximum resistance in the range of 462 to 1126 BU, extensibility from 6.5 to 17.9 cm and area of 69 to 206 cm2. Maximum resistance for the California low- and Southern Plains medium-protein composites are 544 and 462 BU, respectively. All other composites are 717 BU or higher.

ALVEOGRAPH ranges are P (68 to 128 mm); L (81 to 130 mm); and W (227 to 389 (10-4 J)).

DAMAGED STARCH values are in the range of 4.3 to 8.3%.

Lactic acid SRC values range from 129 to 156%, indicating medium to strong gluten strength.

Product Test Results

BAKING EVALUATION for all composites shows acceptable to excellent baking performance relative to protein content, with bake absorptions in the range of 62.2 to 70.1%, loaf volumes of 728 to 985 cc, and crumb grain and texture scores that are similar to or better than a typical HRW flour.

CHINESE RAW NOODLES (white salted) L* values after 24 hr of storage at room temperature are acceptable for all composites except the PNW medium-protein composite. The sensory color stability scores are acceptable for all composites with the exception of the PNW medium- and California high-protein composites. Cooked noodle texture is acceptable for all composites.

CHINESE WET NOODLES (yellow alkaline) sensory color stability scores are similar to or better than the control for parboiled noodles from the California and Southern Plains composites. The cooked noodle texture is acceptable for all composites except the PNW medium-protein composite.

Overall, this year’s HW samples will produce noodles with acceptable color and texture if low ash patent flour is used.

STEAMED BREAD results show most composites have good specific volumes with total scores similar to the control flour with the exception of the Southern Plains very high-protein composite. Blending 25% SW flour with high protein HW flour may improve overall steamed bread quality.

 

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Defining U.S. Wheat’s Comparative (Competitive) Advantage: Hard White

In the increasingly competitive global wheat market, it is important to review the advantages that U.S. wheat delivers to millers and bakers. This post examines the advantages that hard white wheat brings to the market.

Hard white (HW) wheat is the smallest class of wheat grown in the United States, with an annual average production over the last five years of 822,413 metric tons (MMT), about 30.2 million bushels. U.S. HW is the newest wheat class and has developed a strong niche for whole wheat flour products in the U.S. domestic market. In addition, HW varieties are bred to yield flour for both bread and Asian noodles.

The strong demand for a specific use and the relatively small production has created a market where most HW is grown under contract with domestic U.S. milling companies to assure quality standards and provide a premium price incentive to farmers. It is also important to mention that HW wheat includes winter and spring varieties, increasing the protein range and functionality within the class.

Milling Advantages

U.S. hard white wheat performs in the mill much like hard red winter (HRW) wheat. The most apparent HW benefit is higher extraction levels of whiter flour due to its lighter bran color. Higher extraction rates generally improve flour water absorption, benefiting the baker. HW is a true hard wheat creating an advantageous granulation in the primary breaks for the production of coarse semolina, increasing the production of low ash flour.

Baking and Processing Advantages

The most significant advantage of hard white wheat is the quality of baked products made from hard white wheat flour. As mentioned, one of the primary uses of hard white flour in the U.S. baking industry is for whole wheat products. By using ultra-fine white whole wheat flour, whole wheat bread can be produced with the color and texture of traditional bread. This has created a large demand for white whole wheat flour in school lunch programs and other products promoting the health benefits of whole wheat flour and its acceptable taste to children.

Another advantage of HW wheat flour is its low polyphenol oxidase (PPO) content. PPO is an enzyme that can cause the browning of dough. Lower PPO content improves the color of wet noodles and Asian steamed bread products. The starch-pasting characteristics of some HW varieties, as measured by amylograph values, are also an essential trait for noodle production. High peak viscosity is associated with desirable texture characteristics in noodles.

Sourcing Challenges

With all the advantages of HW to the milling and baking industry, the market has challenges in determining its value. Most hard white wheat is grown under production contracts by U.S. milling companies. It is also grown predominantly in the Great Plains, adding to the challenge of marketing HW to Asian customers sourcing wheat off the West Coast. The small size of the HW planted acres creates challenges for a volume-based grain handling system. The need to segregate HW from HRW or hard red spring (HRS) wheat adds cost to the elevators due to the time required to clean equipment and bins. It can also be difficult to accumulate enough quantity to fill a ship hold or a complete unit train. These challenges require creativity and flexibility from both the buyer and seller, who must work together to pull HW wheat through the market and encourage the wheat producer to increase HW wheat planted acres.

U.S. Wheat Advantages

As we highlight each specific class in this series, let us not forget the advantages that all U.S. wheat classes bring to the market. First, and perhaps the most important, is consistency in quality and supply. Although each new crop year brings different challenges and opportunities, U.S. wheat is always available to the global market. Second, U.S. wheat delivers variety. Wheat is a raw material manufactured into a bakery ingredient, flour. The flour made from each unique class of U.S. wheat brings value to the market in the unique quality characteristics to make a variety of baked goods and noodles. It is also important to understand the value of blending flour from one or more types of wheat to optimize the flour performance at a minimal cost.

Each region, country, and culture have wheat-based food products that are uniquely their own. With six unique wheat classes, the United States has the right wheat class to deliver the optimal quality and value for every variety of product on the market.

Learn more about the six classes of U.S. wheat here or leave a question in the U.S. Wheat Associates’ “Ask The Expert” section.

By Mark Fowler, USW Vice President of Global Technical Services

Read more about other U.S. wheat classes in this series.

Hard Red Winter
Hard Red Spring
Soft White
Soft Red Winter
Durum

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Scenes From A Variable but Smaller Kansas Wheat Crop

The anxiously awaited Hard Winter Wheat Tour sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council that ended May 19, confirmed that persistent drought will cut the yield potential of the 2022 Kansas wheat crop to its lowest level since 2018. The 83 participants scouting the crop estimated the average yield potential at 39.7 bushels per acre (52.71 kilograms per hectoliter) compared to the average tour estimate of 47.4 bu/ac (62.66 kg/hl) between 2016 and 2021 (there was no tour in 2020).

Still, the hard red winter (HRW) and hard white (HW) crop potential is quite variable across Kansas. The photos taken by participants shared here show the wide range of crop conditions. Timely precipitation and cropping patterns made a significant difference, even in extremely dry southwestern Kansas. Jennifer Latzke, editor of Kansas Farmer magazine, reported this observation from the tour on May 18.

The tour participants also estimated total production from the scouted area at 261 million bushels. That is less than USDA’s most recent estimate of Kansas wheat production, even though the tour yield estimate was slightly higher than USDA’s estimate of 39.0 bu/ac.

Higher Abandonment

“The participants agreed that there will be more fields abandoned than USDA has estimated,” said U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Market Analyst Michael Anderson. USW Assistant Director, West Coast Office, Tyllor Ledford, joined Anderson as tour scouts this year.

Photo shows T. Ledford in a field estimating Kansas wheat crop.

USW Assistant Director, West Coast Office, Tyllor Ledford scouted a Rooks County, Kansas, wheat field on May 17, 2022, the first day of the Hard Winter Wheat tour.

“Some fields have wheat plants that are so short, they likely will not be, or cannot be, harvested,” Anderson said. “The more experienced participants had a keen sense that making an insurance claim would be the best decision for those fields with questionable potential. I have to say, however, that during the tour, our group saw only isolated fields like that.”

Neighboring Crops Also Stressed

Kansas Wheat’s report from the last day of the tour included the following update on crop conditions in Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma.

Dry wheat field from Pratt County showing drought in Kansas Wheat Crop

Photo from a #wheattour2022 Tweet on May 18, 2022.

The USDA estimate for the Nebraska wheat crop is ­­36.9 million bushels, down from 41.2 million in 2021. The estimated yield average is 41 bu/ac. USDA expects the Colorado crop at 49.6 million bushels, down from 69.6 million bushels last year. However, Colorado Wheat Executive Director Brad Erker estimated the state’s crop at 40.1 million bushels, based on a yield of 28.6 bu/ac, with a 30% abandonment rate. Oklahoma reported that the state’s production is estimated at 60 million bushels, down from 115 million bushels last year, with 25 bu/ac yield.

This Week’s Snapshot

The Wheat Quality Council (WQC) is a coordinated effort by breeders, producers and processors to improve wheat and flour quality. WQC executive director Dave Green said that this tour and a Hard Spring Wheat tour scheduled later this year are important to make connections within the wheat industry. He said another goal is to “describe the wheat as well as we can at the current point in time, not knowing what will happen over the next few weeks.”

Harvest is still more than three weeks away. Any potential rain, or lack of it, to come will affect final yields. In addition, even very thin fields may be harvested. As Kansas Farmer editor Latzke wrote: “At $13 per bushel, every bushel … counts.”

Domestic and overseas wheat buyers can continue to monitor 2021 progress for most U.S. wheat classes by subscribing to the USW Harvest Report posted on the website every Friday.

 

Close up of super dry soil and wheat in a field showing drought in Kansas wheat crop

The obvious effects of the deep drought are clear in this Tweet on May 18 from Clay Patton.

 

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USDA Reports Reflect Why U.S. Farmers Seeded More Winter Wheat

Last week, USDA released three reports giving some indication of what may be ahead for the 2022 global wheat market. Those USDA reports were the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the quarterly Grain Stocks report, and the annual Winter Wheat Seedings report.

Considering all three reports, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) notes that the latest WASDE report showed few unexpected changes to the worldwide balance sheet of wheat. Some upward revisions were made in Argentina and the EU. Still, the reports forecast global consumption far higher than production. The Grain Stocks report reflected the significant drop in total 2021/22 U.S. wheat production. Predictably, U.S. farmers seeded more winter wheat for a second year in a row.

In fact, after winter wheat plantings fell to their lowest level in more than a century in 2020/21, U.S. winter wheat seeded area for marketing year 2022/23 has increased for the second year in a row, up 2% from 2021 and 13% compared to 2020 reported the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in their annual Winter Wheat Seedings report released Jan. 12, 2022. Winter wheat seeded acres are the most they have been since 2016/17.

Bar graph showing annual U.S. winter wheat seeded area indicates an increase over the past two years to illustrate USDA Reports story.

According to recent USDA reports, U.S. farmers are responding to increased global demand and lower U.S. stocks by seeding more winter wheat in 2022.

The Winter Wheat Seedings report showed farmers planted 23.8 million acres (9.6 million hectares) of hard red winter (HRW). This report is up 1% from 2021, led by Kansas, up 3%, and Texas, up 2%. Notable drops in seeded area came in Colorado, down 2%, and New Mexico down 11%.

The quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report confirmed all U.S. wheat in storage, both on and off farm, was down 18% compared to a year ago, while disappearance was down 16% compared to the year before. Analysts expect ending stocks for the 2021/22 marketing year to be the smallest since 2013/14 at 628 million bushels (17.09/MMT).

Price Signals

Increased cash price this year has no doubt played a role in farmer decisions to seed more HRW acres. Kansas Wheat Commission CEO Justin Gilpin noted higher HRW prices as one reason for a second consecutive year of higher wheat plantings. Year-over-year prices for HRW at 12% protein (12% moisture basis) are up 24%.

Soft red winter (SRW) farmers have also taken advantage of strong pricing and increased export demand to plant more SRW acres. Estimates of SRW for the 2022/23 marketing year are 7.07 million acres (2.86 million hectares), 6% higher than last year. Increased acres are largest in Missouri, up 38%, North Carolina is up 31% and Ohio up 21%. USDA reported decreases in Maryland, down 16%, and Michigan, down 23%. The 2021/22 SRW export pace is 50% ahead of last year’s pace year-to-date.

Estimated white winter wheat (soft white and hard white) are 3.56 million acres (1.44 million hectares). This estimate is up 2% from 2021.

Desert Durum® seeded area in California and Arizona of 90,000 acres (36,421 hectares) is up 15% compared to last year and 20% compared to 2020.

Drought Lingers in the Plains

In the monthly “Wheat Outlook” report published by the Economic Research Service (ERS) of the USDA, analysts reported that major HRW producing states, mostly concentrated in the Plains states, saw conditions for winter wheat degrade since November but noted that spring conditions are more influential on production numbers. Kansas’s Gilpin noted “attention has turned to expanding drought ratings across HRW regions and potentially yield and production impacts. Dry conditions and higher input costs both are concerns.”

NOAA map shows where U.S. wheat production areas overlap with drought conditions to supplement USDA reports article.

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

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Good Performance in Limited Exportable 2021 Hard White Supplies

2021 hard white (HW) wheat samples show good quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products, including pan breads, Asian noodles and steamed breads. The Pacific Northwest (PNW), California and Southern Plains composites all show good bread baking potential according to their respective protein contents. For Asian noodle applications, 60% extraction patent flour is recommended to improve noodle color while maintaining noodle texture. For steamed breads, it is recommended that high protein HW flour be blended with a portion of soft white (SW) flour to improve product quality.

map of 2021 hard white wheat production and sampling

Production of the 2021 hard white crop is 0.71 MMT, up 13% over last year.  Much of the increase is due to additional seeded acres and good production in Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska. Spring seeded HW was down due to the drought, which trimmed yields in southern Idaho.

2021 Crop Highlights

  • Grade average for six of the eight composites is U.S. No. 1. The low- and med-protein Southern Plains composites graded U.S. No. 2 due primarily to low test weights.
  • Test Weight ranged from 58.4 to 63.2 lb/bu (76.9 to 83.1 kg/hl).
  • Wheat Moisture ranged from 8.9 to 11.7%
  • Wheat Protein ranged from 11.0 to 13.7% (12% mb).
  • 1000 Kernel Weight for the Southern Plains low- and California high-protein composites are 20.1 and 28.6 g, respectively. All others are greater than or equal to 30.0 g.
  • Kernel Characteristics include kernel hardness averages 42.5 to 84.2 and kernel diameters 2.46 to 2.71 mm.
  • Falling Number averages 349 sec or higher for all composites.
  • Laboratory Mill straight-grade flour extractions range 69.8 to 73.1%, L* values (whiteness) 91.2 to 92.1, flour protein 10.0 to 13.0% (14% mb) and flour ash 0.45 to 0.53% (14% mb).
  • Wet Gluten contents range 25.1 to 29.8% depending on flour protein content.
  • Amylograph peak viscosities are between 553 and 1051 BU for all composites.
  • Farinograph absorptions range 52.4 to 62.9% and stability times 7.3 to 35.1 min, exhibiting medium to strong dough characteristics. HW farinograph absorption indicates more tolerance to overmixing.
  • Extensograph at a 135 min rest shows maximum resistance in the range of 294 to 1203 BU, extensibility 6.2 to 18.4 cm and area 58 to 183 cm2. The Southern Plains low- and med-protein composites were 294 and 528 BU, respectively, and all other composites were greater than or equal to 885 BU.
  • Alveograph ranges are P (38 to 120 mm); L (83 to 137 mm); and W (107 to 393 (10-4 J)).
  • Damaged Starch values are in the range of 3.9 to 5.6%.
  • Lactic acid SRC values range from 86 to 153%, indicating weak to strong gluten strength. The range shrinks to 116 – 153% if the Southern Plains low-protein composite is removed from the set.
  • Bake Evaluation for all composites shows acceptable to good baking performance relative to protein content, with bake absorptions in the range of 57.6 to 67.8%, loaf volumes of 742 to 950 cc, and crumb grain and texture scores of 6.0 to 8.0 points.
  • Chinese Raw Noodles (white salted) L* values at 0 hr of production and after 24 hr of storage at room temperature are acceptable for the Southern Plains low- and med-protein composites. The sensory color stability scores for PNW and Southern Plains low- and med-protein composites are similar to or better than the control noodle of 7.0. Cooked noodle texture is softer for the California med-protein composite.
  • Chinese Wet Noodles (yellow alkaline) sensory color stability scores are slightly to moderately worse than the control for parboiled noodles from all composites. The cooked noodle texture is similar for all composites. Overall, this year’s HW samples will produce noodles with acceptable color and texture if low ash patent flour is used.
  • Steamed Bread results show higher protein composites have larger specific volumes with total scores equivalent to the control flour. Blending 25% SW flour with high protein HW flour may improve overall steamed bread quality.

Buyers are encouraged to review their quality specifications to ensure that their purchases meet their expectations.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has posted more about the 2021 hard white crop here.

2021 Crop Quality Data on Other U.S. Wheat Classes

Hard Red Winter
Hard Red Spring
Soft Red Winter
Soft White
Northern Durum
Desert Durum® And California Hard Red Winter

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What Did the 2021 Hard Winter Wheat Tour Find?

Originally published by Kansas Wheat. Excerpts reprinted with permission.

About 45 people from 13 U.S. states traveled on six routes across Kansas May 18 to 20, stopping at wheat fields along the routes to assess crop conditions and yield potential, as part of the 2021 Hard Winter Wheat Tour sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council.

What they found is perhaps a more productive crop than many had anticipated. The tour estimated an average yield potential of 58.1 bushels per acre, equal to 76.49 kilograms per hectoliter or 3.91 metric tons per hectare.

While an estimated 7.3 million acres of wheat were planted in the fall, the Kansas wheat crop varies in condition based on planting date and amount of moisture received. What Mother Nature has planned for the rest of the wheat crop year remains to be seen (harvest is likely 4 to 7 weeks away), but the tour captures a moment in time for the yield potential for fields across the state.

Calculating Yield in Muddy Boots

Every tour participant makes yield calculations at each stop based on three different area samplings per field. These individual estimates are averaged with the rest of their route mates and eventually added to a formula that produces a final yield estimate for the areas along the routes. The WQC held the hard winter wheat tour about 3 weeks later in May this year and more than half the fields were headed out. That allowed use of a different yield potential calculation than if the fields had not yet headed.

Recent rains across the central and southern Plains that gave tour scouts muddy boots helped improve crop conditions, especially for early seeded crops, and in northern and central Kansas that had not been stressed by dry conditions.

Day 1

On May 18, tour scouts made ­­­171 stops at wheat fields across north central, central and northwest Kansas, and into southern counties in Nebraska. The calculated yield average that day was 59.2 bushels per acre, which was 12.3 bushels higher than the yield of 46.9 bushels per acre from the same routes in 2019.

Calculating yield potential at the 2021 hard winter wheat tour

A scout in the 2021 Hard Winter Wheat Tour takes a measurement that will be used to help calculate the yield potential of this Kansas wheat field.

Day 2

The hard winter wheat tour continued May 19 with six routes covering western, southwest and south-central Kansas as well as some northern Oklahoma counties. The scouts made 164 stops in wet fields from rain received over the past several days. The wheat in southwest Kansas still looks rough, but crop conditions improved as the tour moved east.

The calculated yield from all cars this day was 56.7 bushels per acre. Tour participants remarked that those yields seemed high because the formula used to calculate yield potential does not take disease, weed nor pest pressure into consideration. Scouts saw some instances of wheat streak mosaic virus, stripe rust and Russian wheat aphid. Many of the fields with rust had been sprayed with a fungicide.

Day 3

The official hard winter wheat tour projection for total production in Kansas is 365 million bushels or 9.94 million metric tons (MMT). This number is the average of estimated predictions from tour participants who gathered information from 350 fields across the state. Based on May 1 conditions, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) predicted the Kansas crop to be 331 million bushels, with a yield of 48 bushels per acre, or 9.1 MMT. The NASS estimate is 18% more than its 2020 estimate at the same time.

The NASS estimate for the Nebraska wheat crop is 36.7 million bushels, or just under 1.0 MMT, up 8% from last year. The Colorado crop is estimated at 64.5 million bushels (1.76 MMT). Oklahoma’s production is estimated at 110.74 million bushels (3.1 MMT).

Tour participant discussions from each day of the 2021 hard winter wheat tour are posted at https://www.youtube.com/c/KansasWheat.

Read more about the 2020 virtual tour and the 2019 tour from U.S. Wheat Associates (USW).

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USW Harvest Report for 2021/22 Returns May 14

The new U.S. winter wheat crop is rapidly developing and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) will publish its first “Harvest Report” for marketing year 2021/22 on Friday, May 14.

USW Harvest Reports are published every Friday afternoon, Eastern Daylight Time, throughout the season with updates and comments on harvest progress, crop conditions and current crop quality for hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and durum wheat.

Anyone may subscribe to an email version of the “Harvest Report” at this link. USW includes links in the email to additional wheat condition and grading information, including the U.S. Drought Monitor, USDA/NASS Crop Progress and National Wheat Statistics, the official FGIS wheat grade standards and USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Harvest Reports are also posted online on the USW website here.

The weekly Harvest Report is a key component of USW’s international technical and marketing programs. It is a resource that helps customers understand how the crop situation may affect basis values and export prices.

USW’s overseas offices share the report with their market contacts and use it as a key resource for answering inquiries and meeting with customers. Several USW offices publish the reports in the local language. Additional links to Harvest Report are available on USW’s Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn pages.

USW wants to thank and acknowledge the organizations that make “Harvest Reports” possible, including:

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Six Unique U.S. Wheat Classes: Definition and Uses

Each of the six U.S. wheat classes brings unique advantages to the increasingly competitive global wheat market.

First, and perhaps the most important, is consistency in quality and supply. Although each new crop year brings different challenges and opportunities, high-quality U.S. wheat is always available to the global market.

Second, each class of wheat provides the ingredients needed to produce so much of the world’s food. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Vice President of Global Technical Services Mark Fowler makes the point this way: “Our six U.S. wheat classes give our customers the opportunity to optimize taste, texture and appearance of thousands of food products made with flour or semolina.”

Every region, country and culture have wheat-based food products that are uniquely their own. The United States has the right wheat class and quality to make every one of those products more appealing and valuable.

In the video below, Mark Fowler talks about each of the six wheat classes grown in the United States, their definition, uses and their functional characteristics.

Learn more about the six classes of U.S. wheat here or leave a question in the U.S. Wheat Associates’ “Ask The Expert” section.

Interested in more USW video content? Visit our video library at https://vimeo.com/uswheatassociates.

Read more about other classes of U.S. wheat in this series.

Hard Red Winter
Hard Red Spring
Hard White
Soft White
Soft Red Winter
Durum

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U.S Wheat Associates Shares Winter 2021 Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook

The U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Board of Directors includes wheat farmer leaders appointed to represent each of the 17 state wheat commissions that are members of USW and meets three times during each marketing year (June to May). For each of the meetings, the USW Market Analyst prepares a “Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook” report based on USDA market data to provide an update on the global and U.S. wheat market. The full Winter 2021 report is posted at https://bit.ly/MarketSummary012721.

The report includes sections on world wheat supply and demand, wheat production in the major wheat exporting countries and regions, including U.S. wheat production by class, timely reports such as U.S. wheat seeded area, and U.S. commercial wheat sales.

World Production and Use data from the Winter 2021 Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook

The latest report, prepared Jan. 27, 2021, indicates marketing year 2020/21 is a significant one, with several records set. For example, USDA expects global wheat production to reach 773 million metric tons (MMT) following increased annual production in Australia, Russia and Canada among exporting countries. World wheat trade is expected to increase 1% to a record 194 MMT, which would be 7% more than the 5-year average. With strong carryover from 2019/20 and increased production, global wheat ending stocks are projected at 313 MMT, with China expected to hold 159 MMT and India 31.3 MMT of that total at the end of 2020/21. U.S wheat ending stocks, however, are expected to be the lowest since 2014/15.

USDA has also reported that U.S. winter wheat seeded area (including hard red winter, soft red winter, fall seeded soft white, hard white and Desert Durum®) increased for the first time since 2013/14. Hutchins notes in the report that beneficial field conditions and strong farmgate price potential at planting time motivated hard red winter and soft red winter wheat producers to increase planted area from last year.

U.S. Winter wheat planted area data from the Winter 2021 Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook

View the full Winter 2021 Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook at https://bit.ly/MarketSummary012721.

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