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Annual Spring Wheat Tour Sees Drought Taking Toll on Yield Potential

By Erica Oakley, USW Director of Programs

This week, the Wheat Quality Council hosted its annual hard red spring (HRS) and durum crop tour. Participants spent three days in North Dakota surveying this year’s crop and estimating yield. The tour, which surveyed a total of 496 fields, estimated weighted average HRS yield at 38.1 bushels per acre (bu/a), significantly lower than last year’s HRS average of 45.7 bu/a because of ongoing drought conditions in western areas. The durum weighted average yield was 39.7 bu/a, down from 45.4 bu/a in 2016. Results from six HRW fields showed a weighted average of 46.6 bu/a.

Participants on the tour always represent a wide range of the wheat industry, including millers, traders, media, farmers, researchers and government officials. There were 76 participants on this tour, who traveled along eight distinct routes covering most of the state’s wheat production. I joined my USW colleague Assistant Director of Policy Elizabeth Westendorf on the tour.

It was insightful to see the conditions on the ground after reading reports about the drought. It was also interesting to see the difference in field conditions along each of the routes over all three days.

On the first day, participants drove between Fargo and Bismarck, with two routes going farther into the western part of the state, and others covering western Minnesota and northern South Dakota. Conditions on the eastern side looked good, though there was evidence of drought stress. Reports from the west included evidence of much more severe conditions. The Day 1 weighted average yield was 38.8 bu/a, down from 42.9 bu/a in 2016. For HRS specifically, the yield was 37.9 bu/a, down from 43.1 bu/a in 2016. The scouts surveyed 207 fields on Day 1, of which 194 were HRS, 10 durum and three HRW.

On Day 2, the tour surveyed 225 fields, 188 of which were HRS; along with 34 durum and 3 HRW. The group moved from Bismarck to Devils Lake. The more western routes reported drought stress, though not as severe as the scouts saw in southwestern North Dakota on Day 1. Overall average for Day 2 was 35.7 bu/a, down from 46.5 in 2016. For HRS, the yield was 35.8 bu/a, down from 46.9.

The third day of the tour included a half day of crop surveying. The participants then all returned to North Dakota State University’s Northern Crops Institute in Fargo to compile the overall crop report. On Day 3, participants surveyed at total of 61 HRS fields and three durum fields. The Day 3 weighted average yield for HRS was 46.2 bu/a, down from 51.9 bu/a in 2016. The weighted average durum yield from just three fields was 46.2 bu/a, down from 52.1 bu/a in 2016.

The results reflect a snapshot of yield potential observed by the participants in the fields they scouted.

“There is still a question of abandonment because of the dryness,” said Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council. “We do not yet know how much of the crop has been hayed — how much of it has been plowed under.”

View highlights and photos from the tour by searching #wheattour17 on Facebook and Twitter. For more information and for results from previous tours, visit the Wheat Quality Council’s website at www.wheatqualitycouncil.org.

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Diminishing Low Protein Premiums Add Value to Soft White Export Supplies

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

Four consecutive years of drought, which shrunk soft white (SW) production and increased average protein levels, had the market rationing demand through low protein premiums. Now, after two years of more normal weather patterns, low protein premiums are quickly disappearing providing an excellent buying opportunity for U.S. wheat customers.

In marketing year 2016/17 (June to May), the protein premium for 10.5 percent maximum protein SW shrunk to an average 60 cents per metric ton (MT), compared to the 5-year average of $10 per MT (U.S. protein is calculated on a 12 percent moisture basis). The protein premium for 9.5 maximum protein SW fell to $14 per MT. So far in 2017/18, the 10.5 maximum protein premium has increased slightly to 71 cents per MT due to the uncertainty of harvest; however, the 9.5 maximum protein premium has continued to shrink to an average $6 per MT due to expectations of “normal” protein distributions and an ample supply of SW.

According to USW Crop Quality data, the 5-year average protein for SW is 10.4 percent, which includes two higher protein years (2014/15 and 2015/16). Prior to 2014/15, the 5-year average was 9.9 percent. The expectation of “normal” protein distributions is a direct result of more normal growing conditions. Idaho, Oregon and Washington received timely and ample moisture throughout the growing season, resulting in good stands and grain-fill.

In USDA’s latest winter wheat condition report for 2017/18, winter wheat conditions across the three states averaged 78 percent good to excellent. On July 24, spring wheat conditions in Idaho and Washington were rated 63 percent and 40 percent good to excellent, respectively. Roughly 87 percent of SW is winter wheat and 13 percent is spring wheat.

In addition to good crop conditions, USDA also expects average yield to reach 65.9 bushels per acre (4.43 MT per hectare) or 3 percent above the 5-year average. If realized, that would still be 7 percent below 2016/17 yields. USDA expects large 2017/18 SW beginning stocks to offset an anticipated 11 percent decline in production. Total 2017/18 SW supply is projected to remain stable year over year at 9.77 million metric tons (MMT).

It is important to note that the decline in low protein premiums are currently being driven not by actual data, but by the expectation of normal protein distributions and decent yields at this point because the 2017 SW harvest is only just underway. As always, nothing is guaranteed until the wheat is safely in the bins, but customers can take advantage of the decline in low protein premiums to secure high quality, low-protein SW at reasonable prices.

Customers are encouraged to keep abreast of harvest conditions and to contact their local USW representative with any questions about U.S. wheat supplies and production.

To read the latest USW Weekly Harvest Report, click here.

To subscribe to USW Reports, click here.

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Profiling U.S. Wheat Sustainability: Justin Knopf, Hard Red Winter Wheat Farmer

By Elizabeth Westendorf, USW Assistant Director of Policy

Justin Knopf’s family has been farming land in central Kansas for five generations — starting with their original homestead in the 1860s. Now, Knopf farms 4,000 acres with his father and brother, growing HRW wheat, alfalfa, grain sorghum, soybeans and corn.

“I feel like I have been given a gift to be able to work with the land, and that comes with responsibility,” said Knopf. “What I do impacts consumers, so it is important to take time and energy to be transparent with them and share the bigger story of what is happening in our landscape.”

Knopf is the last farmer in USW’s six-part series on farmer sustainability. USW has featured farmers from each class of U.S. wheat and from all over the country to highlight how their production practices are dependent on local factors and how they each address the goal of sustainability on their farm.

To Knopf, sustainability involves stewardship of resources in three areas — environmental, economic and human. He uses tools, research and continuing farm education opportunities to implement agronomic practices to protect natural resources such as soil, water and air, while also optimizing his production per unit of resources. This is environmental sustainability. Knopf also works to make economically responsible decisions for the farm because if it cannot survive as a business, he will not have a long-term ability to positively affect the environment down the road, which is economic sustainability. And finally, Knopf feels there is a human element to the sustainability conversation. He spends time focusing on the health and happiness of his family, his town and his neighbors while also working to educate consumers, which is social sustainability. All three of these are necessary for agriculture to thrive.

“The land will go on for much longer than I will be here, and it’s a much bigger story outside of myself, so I feel a responsibility to share that bigger story of what is happening with other people as a part of our stewardship,” said Knopf.

Knopf works to share his story by being involved in consumer outreach programs and sustainability research. Two years ago, in a partnership with Kansas Farm Bureau, he hosted a family on his farm for the day to show them how wheat is produced. Last year, Knopf was featured in the book “Rancher, Farmer, Fisherman: Conservation Heroes of the American Heartland” by Miriam Horn, which talked about his focus on improving soil health on his farm. A documentary film by the same title, narrated by award-winning journalist Tom Brokaw, and directed by Emmy-winning and Oscar-nominated Susan Froemke and Emmy-winning filmmaker John Hoffman, will premiere on the Discovery Channel in late August 2016.

Knopf’s emphasis on soil quality and increasing organic matter is particularly impressive. He does this by using no-till methods, carefully calibrating his crop rotations to maximize organic matter and experimenting with cover crops. These practices have improved his soil health, increased soil moisture and improved fertility, allowing him to reduce inputs like fertilizer and fuel and ultimately increase yields. As part of this constant effort to improve, Knopf experiments with new ideas on his farm to make sure that he is being a responsible land owner and manager.

“We see our soils as a fundamentally essential natural resource that is irreplaceable — and it takes a long time to build that soil up again if you lose it,” said Knopf. “And one of the foundational ideas of our family and our farm business is to be a steward of those natural resources and do everything we can to leave them in a better shape for the next generation.”

Learn more about Knopf and his farm at www.uswheat.org/factsheets. U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishermen and foresters also share their values, sustainability experiences and conservation practices at the U.S. Sustainability Alliance.

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U.S. Wheat Production to Fall to Lowest Level Since 2002/03

USDA forecast U.S. 2017/18 wheat production at 47.9 million metric tons (MMT), down 24 percent year over year and 18 percent below the 5-year average. The reason: an anticipated 12 percent decline in average yield and the lowest planted acres since USDA records began in 1919. However, USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. beginning stocks to total 32.2 MMT, up 21 percent year over year and the most since 1988/89. As a result, total 2017/18 U.S. wheat supply is forecast at 80.1 MMT, down 10 percent from 2016/17 but still 1 percent above the 5-year average of 79.3 MMT. USDA expects average yield to be 46.2 bu/acre (3.10 MT/ha), which is close to the 5-year average of 46.6 bu/acre (3.13 MT/ha).

On June 30, USDA estimated total planted wheat area would fall 9 percent year over year to 45.7 million acres (18.5 million hectares). If realized, that would be 17 percent lower than the 5-year average. USDA expects 2017/18 harvested area to drop 13 percent from last year and 18 percent below the 5-year average to 38.1 million acres (15.4 million hectares).

USDA forecast 2017/18 hard red winter (HRW) production to total 20.6 MMT, down 30 percent from 2016/17 and 14 percent below the 5-year average. A smaller planted area and sharply lower harvested area led to the decline. U.S. farmers planted 23.8 million acres (9.63 million hectares) of HRW for 2017/18, down 10 percent from 2016. Due to weather and wheat streak mosaic virus, harvested area in top HRW-producers Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas is projected to fall 16 percent year over year. USDA forecast 2017/18 HRW beginning stocks at 16.1 MMT, up 33 percent year over year and 81 percent above the 5-year average. Total 2017/18 HRW supply is expected to total 36.8 MMT, down 12 percent from 2016/17.

Soft red winter (SRW) production is also expected to decline 11 percent to 8.33 MMT in 2017/18 due to fewer planted acres. USDA estimated total 2017/18 SRW area at 5.61 million acres (2.27 million hectares), 15 percent lower than 2016/17 and 30 percent below the 5-year average. In contrast to recent years, SRW harvest in the U.S. Southern Plains is progressing rapidly with good harvest conditions. On July 7, the USW Weekly Harvest report showed the average grade on 199 samples was U.S. #2 in a generally sound crop with DON levels that are significantly below the 5-year average. USDA estimates that SRW 2017/18 beginning stocks totaled 5.85 MMT, up 37 percent from 2016/17 and 47 percent above the 5-year average. The larger beginning stocks will offset reduced production, and total 2017/18 SRW supply is expected to increase by 500,000 MT year over year to 14.2 MMT.

USDA reported white wheat production will decrease 11 percent from 2016/17 to 6.91 MMT, but still 1 percent above the 5-year average, if realized. The decline is due to 3 percent fewer planted acres and slightly lower forecast yields. Idaho, Oregon and Washington have received ample moisture and winter wheat conditions there average 78 percent good to excellent. USDA estimates soft white (SW) beginning stocks increased 42 percent year over year to 2.86 MMT. The larger beginning stocks are expected to offset the lower production, leaving the 2017/18 SW supply unchanged year over year at 9.77 MMT.

Hard red spring (HRS) production is expected to plummet in 2017/18 to 10.5 MMT, down 22 percent from the prior year and the lowest since 2002/03, if realized. The average spring wheat yield is forecast at 40.3 bu/acre (2.73 MT/ha), down 15 percent from 2016/17. USDA also estimates farmers planted 10.3 million acres (4.17 million hectares) to HRS, 10 percent below 2016/17 levels. As of July 11, 55 percent of North Dakota is in a severe or extreme drought and the remainder of the state is abnormally dry or in a moderate drought. Similarly, 72 percent of South Dakota and 45 percent of Montana are in a moderate to extreme drought. As of July 10, just 35 percent of the spring crop was rated good or excellent and 39 percent was poor or very poor. In North Dakota, the largest HRS producing state, 36 percent of the crop is in good or excellent condition. USDA anticipates 2017/18 HRS beginning stocks of 6.39 MMT are 14 percent less than last year. Estimated 2017/18 HRS supply will total 16.9 MMT, down 19 percent year over year. USDA expects the HRS stocks-to-use ratio to fall to 22 percent in 2017/18, compared to 41 percent one year prior.

Smaller planted area and 30 percent lower yields are expected to reduce durum production to 1.55 MMT in 2017/18, down an estimated 45 percent from 2016/17 and 26 percent below the 5-year average. USDA expects average durum yields to sink to 30.9 bu/acre (2.08 MT/ha), compared to 44.0 bu/acre (2.96 bu/acre) in 2016/17. Durum planted area decreased this year as farmers responded to lower prices and large carry-out stocks. Spring-planted northern durum is grown primarily in North Dakota and Montana, and the Desert Durum® harvest in Arizona and California is nearly complete. USDA estimates 2017/18 durum beginning stocks at 980,000 MT, up 29 percent from the prior year and 45 percent greater than the 5-year average. Increased beginning stocks will not offset the drastically reduced 2017/18 production so USDA expects the U.S. durum supply will fall to 2.53 MMT, 29 percent below 2016/17 levels and 9 percent below the 5-year average. The U.S. durum stocks-to-use ratio will fall to 24 percent, on par with the 5-year average.

Even with reduced production for 2017/18, U.S. farmers stored significant amounts of grain last year, ensuring that customers can continue purchasing reliable, high-quality wheat. Customers are encouraged to contact their local USW representative to discuss purchasing strategies in this volatile global wheat market.

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Profiling U.S. Wheat Sustainability: Bob Johns, Soft White Wheat Farmer

By Emily McGarry, USW Policy Intern

Bob Johns farms in northeast Oregon, and he would tell you that he’s been farming since the day he was born. Johns’ 5,000-acre farm has been in the family since 1873, but he is ready to retire soon. Since there is no family to take over, he is handing the reins to his business partner, Chris Williams, a long-time family friend who began working summers for Johns when he was in high school.

“I have been around agricultural stuff my whole life,” said Williams. “I am fascinated with starting with a bare piece of ground, seeing what you can grow and watching it progress through the season.”

Together, Johns and Williams grow wheat, green peas and alfalfa. They make sustainability a priority on the farm through no-till practices, clean water programs and new farming technology.

“Farming is my life and it’s what I’ve always wanted to do — I never thought of doing anything else,” said Johns. “My father’s life was farming and he passed that on to me. I hope to pass it on to my business partner, Chris.”

Johns is the fifth of six U.S. wheat farmers featured in USW’s series on wheat sustainability. He manages regional agricultural nuances by adapting his practices to be sustainable for his region’s soil and environmental conditions. Part of that also includes planning for the future and a non-traditional transition so that his farm business is still successful for years to come.

“Chris loves the land,” said Johns. “He keeps me on the cutting edge and pushes me to look at the latest technology. We are a good team.”

Northeast Oregon is known for its extremely steep farmland, which often requires special equipment and makes soil erosion a challenge. Johns sees wide variation in his soil quality and the amount of rainfall on his farm, so individual fields often require different levels of attention and inputs. In the past, steep slopes on his farm caused erosion. However, in 2011, Johns switched to no-till practices, which has cut his erosion to nearly zero and greatly improved soil health.

In order to protect the region’s natural resources, Johns and Williams also had their farm certified as “salmon-safe,” which means they restrict the products they use on their land that is near water sources. They also grow plants in those areas that increase the biodiversity on their farm and promote beneficial insects and wildlife.

“We value the environment and we value what we’re doing on the ground,” said Johns. “It’s important to us; we don’t just go out without thinking about those things.”

For Johns, this means finding ways to improve practices through new technology and innovation. Last year, Johns and Williams started experimenting with a drone on their farm to see if aerial photos of their fields could give them insight on crop health and stress levels, soil fertility and input requirements.

Johns and Williams are constantly finding new ways to improve the sustainability of their farm, whether through certification opportunities, government programs, or new technology and practices. But the piece that is most important is the plan for transition. Because Johns partnered with Williams, he knows that his farm will be in good hands when he retires — with someone who loves the land as much as he does.

Learn more about John’s and Williams’ farming partnership at www.uswheat.org/factsheets. U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishermen and foresters also share their values, sustainability experiences and conservation practices at the U.S. Sustainability Alliance.

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National Festival of Breads Offers Model for Meeting Food Trends and Consumer Demand

By Amanda J. Spoo, USW Communications Specialist

Earlier this year, I had the opportunity to travel abroad with some U.S. wheat farmers to learn more about the world wheat market and see how those markets use U.S. wheat. We visited many end-product manufacturers, and as we reviewed their various products, most of our conversations circled back to consumer demand. In the United States, the consumer’s relationship with food is becoming increasingly sophisticated — following new trends and seeking out convenience and information on where it came from. The fuel for this change comes from increasing disposable income, television networks dedicated to food and the growing number of online platforms like food blogs, Pinterest, etc. Although products and taste preferences vary from market to market, the demand for food that is high quality, creative and has a story, is universal.

Here in the United States, I recently had the chance to participate in an event that represents a potentially successful way for the global milling, food ingredient and wheat food industries to tell their stories to consumers. It was the National Festival of Breads, a biennial event held in Manhattan, KS, hosted by the Kansas Wheat Commission and sponsored by King Arthur Flour and Red Star Yeast to showcase bread, U.S. wheat and the art of baking. At the center of the festival on June 17 were eight people selected as finalists in a baking contest, the only U.S. amateur bread-baking competition in the United States. They prepared their original bread recipes live for festival visitors and were judged on creativity, healthfulness and taste to determine a grand prize winner. Judges selected the “Seeded Corn and Onion Bubble Loaf,” made by Ronna Farley of Rockville, MD, as the 2017 National Festival of Breads Champion. The champion recipe and all eight finalists’ recipes are available at https://nationalfestivalofbreads.com.

The festival also featured diverse educational baking demonstrations focused on the versatility of bread, baking tips, convenience and health. The more than 3,000 festival visitors joined in hands-on children’s activities, bread tasting and a trade show featuring the baking industry and a well-rounded look at the  U.S. wheat supply chain, including wheat farmers, milling companies, research and extension, and those in product development.

Prior to the festival, the eight finalists also went on a farm-to-fork tour of central Kansas, which included a flour mill, a wheat farm and the Kansas Wheat Innovation Center. On the Kejr family wheat farm, the finalists rode along in the combine to actually participate in the wheat harvest, which one finalist said helped complete the story of the bread into which she put so much of her own care and hard work.

What was advertised as a fun, family-friendly festival for baking really serves as an opportunity to learn about what is important to the consumer and, in return, share information on the role of wheat in their diet — and why bread is so important in so many cultures. My experiences on my trip overseas and at the National Festival of Breads had many parallels, most importantly that listening to the consumer and creating product advantages and stories around their desires is an effective model for success.

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World Wheat Production to Decline in 2017/18

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

With wheat harvest underway in the Northern Hemisphere and wheat planting underway or complete in the Southern Hemisphere, wheat buyers are beginning to see a downward trend in production numbers. As discussed in the June 15 Wheat Letter, the high quality, high protein wheat supply is shrinking and supporting prices. USDA expects global output to decrease for the first time in five years to 739 million metric tons (MMT) (27.2 billion bushels), down 14.6 MMT (535 million bushels) from the 2016/17 record of 754 MMT (27.7 billion bushels). If realized, production would be 3 percent above the five-year average. In this issue, we summarize current expectations and conditions in the world’s major wheat exporting countries, which account for 90 percent of all world wheat exports.

Argentina. In June, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported Argentine farmers will plant 17 percent more wheat acres in 2017/18 as wheat production continues to expand under President Macri’s favorable policies. Bolsa estimated wheat planted area at 13.6 million acres (5.5 million hectares). On June 22, 53 percent was planted, up from 37 percent the prior week. USDA’s July estimate for 2017/18 Argentinian wheat production was 17.5 MMT (643 million bushels), up 3 percent from 2016/17 and 41 percent greater than the five-year average.

Australia. In its June report, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES) forecasted 2017/18 production at 24.2 MMT (889 million bushels). That is 31 percent below 2016/17, due to an expected 25 percent reduction in average yield and a slight decline in planted area from 2016 to 31.4 million acres (12.7 million hectares). Autumn rainfall was below normal in Western Australia and variable across South Australia, states that account for roughly half of Australia’s winter crop planted acres and production. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology expects drier than average conditions across wheat producing regions during the next three months.

Black Sea. Winter wheat harvest is underway and USDA projects combined 2017/18 output from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will decrease 6 percent to 107 MMT (3.93 billion bushels) based on an expected return to trendline yields. If realized, the combined harvest would still be greater than the five-year average. Russian consultancy SovEcon pegged Russian planted wheat area at 68.9 million acres (27.9 million hectares), down slightly from 2016/17 due to a 4 percent decrease in spring wheat area. Russian wheat production is expected to decline to 70.4 MMT (2.59 billion bushels), down 3 percent from 2016/17 due to the smaller planted area and anticipated lower yields. SovEcon forecast Russian winter wheat yields at 52.1 bu/acre (3.50 MT/ha), down from 55.5 bu/acre (3.73 MT/ha) in 2016/17. Spring wheat yields are expected to fall 7 percent year over year to 21.1 bu/acre (1.42 MT/ha). UkrAgroConsult reported Ukrainian wheat planted area decreased slightly year over year to 15.6 million acres (6.30 million hectares), and expects yields to fall 7 percent year over year to 58.2 bu/acre (3.91 MT/ha). 2017/18 Ukrainian wheat production is forecast at 24.5 MMT (900 million bushels), compared to 26.1 MMT (959 million bushels) in 2016/17. UkrAgroConsult noted yield declines and a 3 percent smaller planted area will lower Kazakhstan wheat production to 13.7 MMT (503 million bushels), down 9 percent from 2016/17, if realized.

Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) expects wheat production of 29.5 MMT (1.08 billion bushels) in 2017/18. That is down 7 percent year over year because average yield is expected to decline to 47.6 bu/acre (3.20 MT/ha) in 2017/18. Slightly higher planted area will partially offset expected yield declines. StatsCan put planted area at 22.4 million acres (9.07 million hectares) of wheat in 2017/18. Spring wheat planted area rose 2 percent to 15.8 million acres (6.39 million hectares) due to low carry-in stocks and increased price competitiveness with alternative crops. Durum planted area decreased 16 percent year over year to 5.2 million acres (2.11 million hectares) due to high carry-in stocks and lower prices. Canada’s winter wheat seeding decreased 16 percent year over year from a shift to spring wheat. Crop conditions this year are variable with excessive moisture in northern areas while southern areas remain dry. As of June 23, topsoil moisture in Saskatchewan was rated 18 percent short or very short compared to 40 percent short or very short last week. In Alberta, 84 percent of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition compared to 83 percent last year. Surface soil moisture is rated 79 percent good to excellent; 14 percent of surface soil moisture is rated excessive. Saskatchewan and Alberta account for roughly 82 percent of 2017/18 planted wheat acres.

European Union. After a challenging 2016/17, Strategie Grains expects EU common wheat production will rebound 4 percent to 142 MMT (5.20 billion bushels) in 2017/18 with a 5 percent increase in yield expected to offset a 1 percent decrease in planted area. French production is expected to increase 7.66 MMT (281 million bushels) year over year to 35.6 MMT (1.31 billion bushels) — a 33 percent improvement in yields. Precipitation across France is 25 percent below normal since March, however. The French crop bureau FranceAgriMer rated 68 percent of French soft wheat in good or excellent condition, down from 74 good to excellent percent the prior week. Dry conditions are also threatening yield potential in Austria, Germany, Italy and Poland. In Spain, drought conditions are expected to cut wheat production by 32 percent year over year to 4.72 MMT (173 million bushels). Additionally, the EU’s crop monitoring service MARS reduced its forecasts for wheat yields to 87.2 bu/acre (5.86 MT/ha), from 87.9 bu/acre (5.91 MT/ha) in May, but greater than the five-year average of 86.7 bu/acre (5.84 MT/ha). Weather forecasts for early July provide little relief for EU farmers, which could further threaten yield potential.

United States. USDA forecast U.S. 2017/18 wheat production at 49.6 MMT (1.82 billion bushels), down 21 percent year over year and 15 percent below the five-year average due to an anticipated 10 percent decline in average yield and the lowest number of planted acres since USDA records began in 1919. USDA expects the average yield to be (3.18 MT/ha) compared to the five-year average of (3.14 MT/ha). In the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, USDA reported U.S. farmers intended to plant 46.1 million acres (18.7 million hectares) of wheat for 2017/18.

USDA will update planted area estimates June 30. The first U.S. by-class estimates will be released in the July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Follow #wheatharvest17 on Twitter for the latest harvest photos and conditions.

Subscribe to USW Weekly Harvest Reports. To read the latest report, click here.

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Profiling U.S. Wheat Sustainability: John Hoffman, Soft Red Winter Wheat Farmer

By Elizabeth Westendorf, USW Policy Specialist

John Hoffman farms some of the same land that four generations of his family have managed since the late 1800s. Today, the farm covers roughly 3,200 acres where he grows corn, soybeans and soft red winter (SRW) wheat. For Hoffman, sustainability is key to preserving his family’s farming tradition for the next generation.

“I think we’re sustainable when every year we are able to plant a crop, harvest a crop, and do it again the next year,” said Hoffman. “If we are not sustainable, that would not happen — we would not stay in business every year.”

Hoffman believes being sustainable means being an early adapter of emerging practices on his farm. He tries to embrace the latest farming technologies to help improve his business, such as no-till and minimum till practices to improve soil health, GPS technology to increase accuracy and use inputs efficiently, and government conservation programs to give back to the environment.

Hoffman is the fourth of six U.S. wheat farmers featured in a USW series on wheat sustainability. These profiles show the differences in wheat production practices across the country and how those farming practices enhance the sustainability of U.S. agriculture.

“Family farming is a way of life, but it is also a large business,” said Hoffman. “Anything we can do to improve on what we do as business people, farmers and human beings to make things better, we are going to attempt to do it.”

A good example is how Hoffman uses a combination of no-till and minimum-till practices depending on crop need. No-till farming does not disturb the soil, which increases the amount of water that penetrates the soil surface and improves organic matter. Minimum-till helps warm the soil or reduce excess moisture. Both techniques reduce erosion compared to traditional tillage. He produces all his wheat and 80 percent of his soybeans with no-till technology, and he uses minimum tillage in corn production.

Access to better seed over the years has allowed Hoffman to improve his farming practices and use innovative techniques so that his farm is constantly improving. This story is true for many farmers, as plant breeding comes up with new varieties that respond to specific agronomic and economic challenges. That innovation is just another facet of the sustainability story.

“With the new genetics available in seed today, we can be more cost-effective and utilize less chemicals. That also made the no-till option a lot more practical,” said Hoffman. “Plus, the soil savings — the conservation aspect of it — we thought it was better for our land. It really helped reduce soil erosion.”

Another issue in Hoffman’s area is how farming affects water quality. By reducing soil erosion, he and other farmers reduce the amount of water that runs off their fields. Hoffman has also tried to reduce his inputs over the years to help with water quality and makes sure to use them intelligently — by not applying fertilizer on frozen ground or before a large rain, he makes sure that those inputs stay in the field instead of being washed away. On some of his land, he has been able to use government conservation programs and plant grass around the natural water runoff areas.

Hoffman’s farm has thrived because he has been able to innovate and adopt new technologies and practices over the years. At its core, that is what sustainability is about — constant improvement. Each of the farmers featured in USW’s Sustainability Profiles embody this idea. They do it in different ways, but with that one idea in common.

Learn more about Hoffman and his farm at www.uswheat.org/factsheets. U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishermen and foresters also share their values, sustainability experiences and conservation practices at the U.S. Sustainability Alliance.

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Oklahoma’s Public Wheat Breeding Sows Benefits for Farmers and Customers

By Jack Money, Excerpted from “The Oklahoman” with Permission

This time of year, talk about wheat always focuses on the harvest. Researchers at Oklahoma State University and land grant universities across the country aren’t focused on what’s being cut this year, though. Instead, they’re thinking about the complex testing they never stop doing to develop the future wheat varieties farmers will want to grow.

Historically, they’ve geared their work to develop wheat varieties that can hold up in drought conditions and are resistant to insects or disease. They’ve also worked to develop dual purpose varieties that can be grazed early on and still grow quickly enough to provide a decent yield for harvest at the end of each year’s growing season.

Now, their focus is shifting somewhat to developing varieties that have the milling and baking qualities the … food industry desires. Achieving that, they say, will give farmers who grow those varieties the ability to make better money at harvest time — something they hope will encourage more farmers to invest a little more to plant certified seed in their fields.

Sales of that certified seed generates revenues to support further research, something that’s a key part of keeping Oklahoma’s wheat industry strong, those researchers say.

“We want to see farmers go more for growing the grains that millers are looking for, where they are sourcing wheat grown from a particular region of the state,” said David Marburger, a small grains extension specialist and assistant professor at Oklahoma State University (OSU). “In a world where we have a lot of wheat, we need ours to start floating toward the top,” Marburger noted. “Right now, people are buying our wheat at a discounted price and that costs our economy money.”

In nearly three dozen wheat fields across Oklahoma this year, plots of various wheat varieties were planted and then grown to maturity to both analyze the varieties’ performances and to give wheat farmers an opportunity to consider planting them. Marburger made his comments, for example, at a test site on wheat farmer [and past USW Chairman] Don Schieber’s land near Ponca City as he and other researchers discussed the strengths, weaknesses and genetic origins of more than a dozen wheat varieties grown at the site.

The breeding program is overseen by Brett Carver, who joined OSU in 1985 to begin a research and teaching career in quantitative genetics and wheat development. In 1998, he assumed leadership of the university’s wheat improvement team, becoming just the third person to lead the group since the program began in the mid­ 1940s.

Before that, farmers used to develop new varieties of wheat on their own, and early on in the university’s program, researchers pollinated two kinds of wheat just to see what might result. Later, that evolved into crossing varieties of wheat to create a new variety containing positive characteristics from both.

Now, genetics are playing a bigger role. Carver’s wheat improvement team, for example, includes three molecular geneticists, an entomologist, a plant pathologist and other specialized researchers.

“The program I direct is all about developing the lines that become varieties. It is a long, complicated process and one that you just don’t want to start and stop. You have to keep it going,” Carver said.

The process to develop a new hybrid starts, he said, with his improvement team and its technicians working in greenhouses to cross pollinate varieties of wheat to get something new.

“You have to go against the grain, both literally and figuratively, because you have to force it to do that,” Carver said. That requires the removal of the male parts of the plant on one type of wheat, and then fertilizing the plant with pollen from another. And it all has to be done by the hands of researchers and their technicians, “like bees moving pollen from one plant to the other,” Carver said.

The team seeks to make more than 1,000 cross combinations each year, then evaluates mature plants to see if they are worth further research. If one is worthy, the team spends another five to six years to get the plant ready for field tests, and those take anywhere from three to as many as six years to complete. On average, OSU’s team spends 11 years creating and testing a new variety, Carver said.

“When it’s released (made commercially available to wheat growers), it’s like putting out a song and making it available for public use, but it is still going to be researched and evaluated,” Carver said.

Mark Hodges, executive director of Oklahoma Genetics Inc., handles the business side of wheat research in Oklahoma. Oklahoma Genetics, Inc. is an education nonprofit that promotes the stewardship and publicizes and markets the use of certified varieties of wheat. It also promotes educational programs and scientific research for the benefit of crop producers and markets, and supports plant breeding programs designed to meet current and future consumer demands.

Hodges said Oklahoma Genetics was formed in 2005. It also works with OSU and the Oklahoma Wheat Commission to educate farmers about wheat varieties produced by the university’s research, and to distribute certified seed from those varieties so they can be sold to farmers.

Seed sales generate royalty revenues that flow back to the university [and other organizations that may hold patents].

“That’s extremely important, because it supports the efforts of Dr. Carver and his team to develop new varieties,” Hodges said.

The university also receives money collected from wheat growers by grain operators at harvest for the Oklahoma Wheat Commission’s checkoff program, which captures 2 cents per bushel of harvested wheat.

Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission, said the checkoff program [funding goes in part] to OSU to support its wheat research program.

“I think it really is impressive to see the commitment made by Dr. Carver and the wheat improvement team to make these programs happen,” Schulte said. “Without the support of the wheat commission, Oklahoma Genetics and the state’s wheat producers, it would be extremely hard to keep our public wheat research program at OSU viable, especially given Oklahoma’s current economy.”

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Premiums for Protein on the Rise

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

Much needed rain across the U.S. Northern Plains this week gave emerging hard red spring (HRS) and durum crops a drink, but the rain was bookended by hot, windy conditions and likely did little to alleviate drought conditions.

Total rainfall for the region ran 60 to 75 percent below average for three months before this week’s storms, with Minot, ND — in the heart of the HRS growing area — recording just 1.23 inches (3 cm of rain) since March. The June 13 U.S. Drought Monitor showed 83 percent of North Dakota is in a moderate or severe drought and the remainder of the state is abnormally dry. Similarly, 79 percent of South Dakota and the eastern third of Montana are abnormally dry or in a moderate to severe drought.

The lack of rain and above normal temperatures is taking an early toll on crop conditions. On June 13, USDA reported 45 percent of spring wheat was in good to excellent condition, down 10 percentage points from the prior week and the lowest rating on record for that week. USDA noted 20 percent of the spring wheat crop was in poor or very poor condition, up from 11 percent the prior week and just 2 percent at the same time last year. Markets will be closely watching next week’s USDA crop condition report, and further deterioration of crop conditions will support Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) HRS wheat futures.

In the past two weeks, the nearby MGEX HRS wheat futures contract rallied 8 percent or 49 cents to $6.28 per bushel, the highest level since December 2014. Concern about the HRS crop and early harvest reports of low protein hard red winter (HRW) also support widening HRW protein premiums. Last June, the protein premium for 12.0 percent protein HRW (on a 12 percent moisture basis) averaged 12 cents per bushel ($4.59 per metric ton) over 11.0 percent protein HRW. This year, the same premium is 60 cents per bushel ($22 per metric ton).

With 60 percent of high protein wheat exports (13 percent protein on a 12 percent moisture basis or higher) originating from the United States and Canada, protein premiums are also widening due to Canadian crop and soil moisture conditions. In Saskatchewan, where Canadian farmers are wrapping up spring planting, topsoil moisture is rated 40 percent short or very short compared to 8 percent short or very short last year.

Farmers in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan are having the opposite problem — too much moisture. On June 6, the Alberta crop report rated topsoil moisture at 29 percent excessive in the Northeast and 40 percent excessive in the Northwest. Wet fields and harvesting 1.16 million acres (2.86 million hectares) of overwintered crops delayed spring planting progress in the province. Spring wheat planting was 95 percent complete on June 6, up from 84 percent the prior week but behind the 5-year average of 98 percent complete. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimated total Canadian wheat production for 2017/18 will be 29.5 million metric tons (MMT), down 7 percent year over year due to a slight decline in planted area and a return to trendline yields.

“Conditions are variable right now with too much water in many northern areas, too little in the southern areas and probably very good conditions in between the two,” noted Robin Speer Executive Director of Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association. “We think the next two weeks become very important for this crop.”

Though HRS planted area is expected to be 7 percent smaller this year and yield potential for this year’s HRS crop is still unknown, U.S. farmers will continue to have the high quality, high protein wheat the world needs. In its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate, USDA pegged 2016/17 HRS ending stocks at 5.86 MMT, slightly more than the 5-year average of 5.28 MMT. The larger than normal ending stocks ensure the U.S. wheat store will always be open; the only unknown is how much customers will need to pay.

To read the latest USW Weekly Harvest report, click here.

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