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As we continue a series of articles on U.S. supply chain logistics, rail is arguably the most important mode of transporting wheat for export.

According to a recent USDA Modal Share Analysis Study, rail accounted for an average of 59% of inland transportation for wheat exports between 2016 and 2020, or an average annual total of 17.0 million metric tons. This article will focus on the importance of rail freight in wheat exports and address current trends in rail performance.

Two vertical bar charts showing the volume of U.S. wheat shipped domestically and to export locations by truck, rail and barge between 2004 and 2020.

Rail and barging are the main modes of transportation for wheat exports, as they can handle large volumes of grain over long distances. Together, they transport 89% of the total wheat export shipments. Source: USDA Modal Share Analysis Study.

An Interesting Year

In 2022, increased demand for railcars and performance issues sent U.S. rail rates soaring, with Secondary Railcar Auction Market Bids hitting their highest since 2014. Since then, rail rates have eased drastically. From March 2023 to July 2023 secondary bids for railcars have been negative, indicating that the current supply of railcars is sufficient for meeting the needs of shippers.

Decreased volumes and the subsequent decrease in rail tariff rates and Secondary Railcar Market Auction Bids have added additional pressure to already low basis levels, helping boost the competitiveness of U.S. wheat to importers. However, as the 2023 soy and corn harvest progresses, we can expect rail rates to rise due to increased demand and a higher volume of grain moving via rail.

This vertical bar and line chart show a comparison of grain carloads average from previous years to the current 4 week period up to 8/25/23.

According to the latest Grain Transportation Report, grain carloads (corn, soybeans, and wheat) moved by Class I railroads were down 3% from the previous week and are sitting 22% below the three-year average. The current decreased volume alleviates pressure on basis as rail companies have a sufficient supply of cars to meet the current demand. Source: September 3, 2023 USDA Grain Transportation Report.

Even so, the outlook for fall logistics appears positive. In a recent interview with “Freightwaves,” transportation export Jay O’Neil indicated that “Weather is always a question mark that makes it [performance] impossible to predict. But overall, I think the railroads… have some excess capacity because of [reduced grain export volumes]. I think [railroads] are very much looking forward to the harvest season … So, I don’t see any particular influences right now that should get in their way and prevent them from providing a decent service for harvest.”

Part of a Reliable System

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is committed to sharing transparent and pertinent information to customers about inland logistics issues. It is beneficial for U.S. wheat importers to be aware of transportation trends, as seasonal shifts and potential issues have a direct influence on export basis and the Free-on-Board export price.

Encompassing the largest share of inland logistics, the railroads are a critical component for moving U.S. wheat to export. After last years’ service disruptions, steps have been taken to help address the root issues such as hiring additional crew and investing in infrastructure. U.S. railroads are committed to moving U.S.-grown commodities. With diverse origination options and numerous modes of transportation, regardless of the class or export point, rail helps U.S. wheat remain the most reliable choice for world importers.

This article is part of a series outlining the inland logistics for U.S. wheat, highlighting barge freight, the railroads, infrastructure investments, and maritime transportation trends.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, approximately 31% of U.S. exported wheat is moved by barge to export points in the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Barging is an extremely safe, efficient, and competitive mode of transporting grain for export, contributing to our robust grain marketing system.

As key gateways for wheat exports, this article will explore recent barge freight trends on the Mississippi River (photo above) and Colombia Snake River System (CSRS), highlighting their effectiveness and providing updates about current issues.

Map of the U.S. shows the Mississippi River system, and the Columbia Snake River System to show where barging is important for U.S. wheat export logistics.

The Mississippi and the Columbia-Snake River systems are major transportation routes facilitating exports from the Gulf of Mexico and the PNW. Source: USDA/Agricultural Marketing Service/Transportation and Marketing Program/Transportation Economics Division.

Mississippi River Update

About 8% of all U.S. wheat moves on the Mississippi River system, bringing primarily soft red winter wheat (SRW) from growing regions in the eastern U.S. to export in the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio rivers. The Mississippi River system spans an immense geographic area, originating grain from as far north as Minnesota and as far east as Ohio and Illinois. Barges on the Mississippi River can carry 1,750 MT of grain, and a 15 barge tow can transport over 26,000 MT, the equivalent of 2 unit trains. Exports from the Gulf of Mexico account for 33% of U.S. wheat exports. Though wheat only accounts for 3% of Mississippi River barge movements, it is still an essential and efficient mode of transportation for U.S. wheat.

In the fall of 2022, low water levels on the lower Mississippi River slowed exports at ports on the Louisiana Gulf to their lowest level in 9 years. As a result, barge rates skyrocketed, and grain flows were restricted.

Monthly Downbound Grain Barge Rates

In October 2022, Mississippi River barge rates spiked to a record high of $2,092.83, 150% above the next highest price, due to low water levels and restricted barge flows Source: USDA Monthly Downbound Grain Barge Rates.

Since last fall, Mississippi River barge tariffs have normalized. However, according to the latest Grain Transportation Report, barge movements on the Mississippi River (Lock 27- Granite City, IL) are down 46% from last year and 72% below the three-year average. This decrease is attributed primarily to lower exports for all commodities (wheat, corn, and soybeans). Looking ahead, draft reductions in the lower Mississippi River may be a recurring issue as dryness in the Midwest persists.

this chart of barge movement on the Mississippi River show the downward trend in volumes seasonally and over the past several years.

Barge movements vary by season on the Mississippi River, but are down 46% from last year and 72% from the three-year average, driven primarily by a sharp decrease in grain exports. Weekly inspections for exported grain (wheat, corn, and soybeans) are down 47% from last year and 45% below the three-year average. Source: USDA Grain Transportation Report.

Columbia Snake River System

Shifting our focus to the PNW, the Columbia Snake River System (CSRS) accounts for 60% of all U.S. wheat exports via the deep-water draft ports on the Lower Columbia River. By barge alone, over 10% of all U.S. wheat exports move on the CSRS from as far inland as Lewiston, Idaho (360 miles). From an efficiency standpoint, according to the Pacific Northwest Waterway Association, barges on the CSRS can carry 3,500 MT of grain, and a four barge tow can transport over 14,000 MT, the equivalent of 1.5 unit trains and over 580 trucks.

From January 14 to March 29, 2024, an extended closure of the CSRS is scheduled to replace components at the John Day and McNary dams on the Columbia River and at the Lower Monumental, Little Goose, and Lower Granite dams on the Snake River. Routine maintenance assures the waterway remains a reliable mode of grain transportation and helps maintain the competitiveness of U.S. wheat. Similar to the Gulf of Mexico, grain exports from the PNW are down 71% from last year and 65% below the three-year average, subsequently impacting demand for barges.

Due to low export demand, grain exports from the PNW are down 71% from last year and 65% below the three-year average. Source: USDA FGIS Export Grain Inspections Data.

A Reliable System

U.S. Wheat Associates is committed to sharing transparent and pertinent information to customers about inland logistics issues, as domestic transportation makes up a significant portion of U.S. wheat export basis. Though barges only make up a small portion of U.S. inland logistics, barging helps ensure the U.S. remains the most reliable choice for world importers by complementing the use of Class I railroads and trucks. With diverse origination options and numerous modes of transportation, regardless of the class or export point, U.S. wheat is always available.

This is the first in a series of three articles about the efficient and reliable U.S. grain export transportation system. Future articles will focus on rail and ocean freight logistics.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford.