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Following is USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford’s report on her participation in the 2023 Crop Quality Seminars. She appears on the left in the photo above with Regional Vice President for South and Southeast Asia Joe Sowers and Assistant Regional Director Joe Bippert at the Crop Quality Seminar in Bangkok, Thailand.

For many, the month of November includes preparations for an upcoming holiday season and a time of reflection as many cultures around the world look ahead to a new year. At U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), the month of November marks Crop Quality Seminar season, a time when USW staff from around the world inform customers about new wheat crop quality characteristics, provide insight on current market conditions, and highlight opportunities for customers as they make purchasing decisions into the coming year.

Cover of the 2023 USW Crop Quality Report including photos of a wheat field, pasta, sponge cake, and bread.

Download the 2023 U.S. Wheat Crop Quality Report here.

From November 6 to 10, I had the pleasure of joining a team of USW staff, state wheat commission staff, partner organizations, exporters, and wheat farmers on the Southeast Asia Crop Quality tour in Manila, Philippines, Jakarta, Indonesia, and Bangkok, Thailand. The seminars represent a cumulation of the years’ work, from when the winter wheat crop was planted in 2022 through spring fieldwork, harvest, rigorous quality testing, and finally, the compilation of the 2023 crop quality booklets.

A Unique Gathering

Differing from other USW sponsored events, the Crop Quality seminars provide an annual opportunity for representatives from across the U.S. wheat supply chain to gather in one location with major flour milling stakeholders from the region. Attendees included a mix of producers, country elevator managers, U.S. export companies, flour mill staff, and end product manufacturers. With a wide range of representation from across the supply chain, this year’s event provided the opportunity to address special topics of concern, including how farmers make planting decisions and the future of wheat acreage, new technology implementation by wheat producers, and the grain origination process from a country elevator point of view. The U.S. supply chain is large and complex; therefore, perspectives from different aspects of the supply chain help bridge the gap between the producers of U.S. and the end users.

In our region alone we reached over 250 customers from Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia throughout three seminars. It was enlightening to witness firsthand the great relationships USW has with the flour milling industry in the region and reconnect with familiar faces that have visited farms in the U.S. or participated in other USW sponsored activities and events.

Photo from the front of a large conference room at the 2023 USW Crop Quality Seminar in Bangkok, Thailand.

Nearly 150 flour mills staff, end product manufactures, and industry stakeholders gathered at the 2023 USW Crop Quality Seminar held in Bangkok, Thailand.

Timely Information Aids in Future Planning

Throughout the week, a common focus of questions and hallway conversations centered on future purchasing decisions, potential threats, and the key question of “where will prices go next?”

Market sentiment is ever changing and now more than ever, lurking factors that are not yet reflected in current market prices continue to play a role in wheat market dynamics. Even in years with less variability, accurately predicting price direction is a challenge, but this year, with many more unknowns than knowns in the market, making predictions is more difficult than ever.

Nevertheless, the questions and conversations highlight the continued need for information sharing as customers navigate the complexities of the world wheat market. Regardless of the year, crop conditions, and market outlook customers rely on USW to provide accurate, timely, and transparent information, in addition to the high-quality wheat on which customers know they can rely.

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Over the last few weeks, we have explored all the major modes of the U.S. supply chain, evaluated recent trends, and highlighted how each type of transportation plays an integral role in the U.S. supply chain. Barging, rail, and oceangoing vessels work together to create the dependable supply chain importers of U.S. wheat expect. In periods of increased risk and volatility, a trustworthy, reliable supply chain is essential for providing customers with the wheat they need.

In the final installment of this series, we will explore the continued investment into the U.S. supply chain and highlight recent projects planned to keep the U.S. inland logistics system running efficiently and effectively.

This Just In

On Nov. 6, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration (MARAD) recently announced that more than 40 ports across the United States will receive $653 million in funding for improvement projects that will help with the movement of grain. Under the Port Infrastructure Development Program, the funding will help grow capacity and increase efficiency at coastal seaports, Great Lakes ports and inland river ports.

Stakeholder Commitment

With private companies owning and operating grain export infrastructure and assets, the U.S. supply chain benefits from significant commercial investment to ensure the effectiveness of the logistics system. Holding one of the largest stakes within inland transportation, the U.S. Class I railroads value the system’s reliability and understand its importance to wheat buyers worldwide.

One of the latest examples of continued private investment in the U.S. supply chain is the newly constructed rail bridge at Sandpoint Junction in the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) rail network. On August 7, the inaugural trip on the new Sandpoint Junction Connector rail bridge occurred, representing the official opening of two-way traffic crossing Lake Pend Oreille in northern Idaho. This junction is crucial because it is a merging point between the BNSF and Montana Rail Network and serves as the primary gateway that links grain grown in the Northern Plains to port access in the Pacific Northwest (PNW).

Map of the Pacific Northwest showing the location of an investment in the U.S. supply chain moving wheat to PNW ports.

The new Sandpoint Junction Connector rail bridge will allow two-way traffic across Lake Pend Oreille in Idaho, helping improve efficiency for wheat and other grain moving by rail from the Northern Plains to the PNW for export. Source: BNSF.

CPKC Network

CPKC railroad logoAnother noteworthy project is a $100 million investment commissioned by Kansas City Southern in October 2022 (now part of the Canadian Pacific Kansas City rail network) to construct a new international rail bridge connecting Laredo, Texas, U.S. to Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, Mexico. The bridge expansion will allow trains to operate in both directions simultaneously, granting more economical access to the U.S. supply chain for Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. wheat.

Government Investment

Complimenting private investment into the domestic logistics systems, the U.S. federal government provides significant support to the U.S. grain supply chain to uphold its safety and dependability.

In September, the Department of Transportation Federal Railroad Administration granted $1.4 billion to finance 70 rail improvement projects through the Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements program. The largest grant (nearly $73 million) is for the Palouse River and Coulee City Railroad (PCC) improvements by the Washington State Department of Transportation. The PCC, a regional shoreline railroad, carries wheat traffic in major wheat-growing counties in eastern Washington, and the upgrades will help improve wheat shipments to elevators and seaports in the PNW by allowing for higher speeds and larger railcars.

Prevention Is the Best Medicine

While capital investment and improvement are vital to maintaining the efficiency of the U.S. rail systems and promoting wheat exports in the face of strong global competition, the U.S. supply chain benefits most from continuous investment in maintenance and repairs by private companies and state and federal governments. The backbone of a dependable, reliable system lies in the safety and proper function of the infrastructure and assets that make up the supply chain.

An important example of the commitment to preventive maintenance is the upcoming lock and dam closure on the Columbia Snake River System. In January 2024, the Army Core of Engineers will be performing maintenance on major components at the John Day and McNary dams on the Columbia River and at the Lower Monumental, Little Goose, and Lower Granite dams on the Snake River, resulting in an extended river closure from January 14 to March 29, 2024. This maintenance represents a forward-thinking investment by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to ensure this critical waterway remains operational for decades to come.

Mississippi River Study

In addition, USACE is conducting a 5-year, Lower Mississippi River Comprehensive Management Study that it says will yield recommendations for effective and practical management of the Mississippi River from Cape Girardeau, MO, to the Gulf of Mexico, a key U.S. supply chain serving growing export demand for U.S. soft red winter wheat.

According to the USACE, the purpose of the study is to identify recommendations for the comprehensive management of the region across multiple purposes, including navigation, flood risk management, and environmental restoration.

The combined impact of preventive maintenance, efficiency improvements, and significant capital investment are key components that differentiate the U.S. wheat supply chain and help the U.S. wheat export supply system remain the most reliable in the world.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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Since the start of the year, world wheat prices have consistently trended lower, with Russian wheat maintaining its position as the world’s cheapest origin. With the Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest now complete, it brings about the question: have markets touched their seasonal lows, and in what direction will they go next? In this article, we will evaluate the underlying market factors driving recent price trends and highlight factors to watch moving forward.

A Downward Trend

Following the initial shock of Russia’s Ukraine invasion in 2022 with volatility on the way, world wheat prices have steadily decreased. From January 2023 to present, world wheat prices are down $77/MT, on average.

Russia’s influence in the world market is driving this trend in world price levels. According to the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Russian production was estimated at 85.0 MMT, 5.0 MMT above the five-year average. Likewise, 2023/24 Russian exports are forecast at 50.0 MMT, the highest on record. The ample supplies of Russian wheat and significant export flows have put downward pressure on the world wheat market. As a result, the October 23, 2023 AgriCensus price data puts Russian wheat with 12.5% protein (on a dry moisture basis) at $225/MT FOB, their lowest price since September 2020 and the cheapest on the world market.

Over the same time, world wheat demand has softened. For the first time since 2018/19, USDA projects a reduction in global use, with the October WASDE putting demand at 792 MMT, down from 796 MMT the year prior.

Line chart showing world wheat prices in several countries are on a downward trend.

Since January 2023, world wheat prices have decreased by 17%, weighed by ample supplies exported from Russia. Source: AgirCensus Price Data, October 23, 2023.

More Than Meets the Eye

At first glance, the global supply and demand situation shows ample Black Sea grain exports and softening global demand, the perfect pairing for lower global wheat prices.

Looking more closely, ending stocks in major exporting countries are forecast to fall to the lowest level since 2012/13, demonstrating a tighter global balance sheet that is, apparently, not reflected in current price levels.

Bar chart showing a downward trend in ending stocks of wheat in major exporting countries and world wheat prices.

Ending stocks in major exporting countries are down 10% on the year and 29% from 2017/18. Despite the decreased stocks, wheat prices sit near 2021 levels, failing to reflect the tighter world balance sheet. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report.

Additionally, Southern Hemisphere wheat production, particularly Australian output, is a factor to watch. As the El Niño weather event develops in the equatorial Pacific, dry weather is expected to prevail in Australia. As a result, the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates put Australian production at 24.5 MMT, down 1.5 MMT from September and 15.2 MMT below the year prior. However, recent rains in Australia may help improve yields, bringing an additional bearish influence to the world market.

Beyond Traditional Fundamentals

In addition to supply and demand, macroeconomic factors have played an increasingly important role in world wheat prices. The U.S. dollar was strong a year ago, but softened over the first half of 2023. However, beginning in July, the dollar index shifted up again, driven by a sustained hawkish view held by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of higher interest rates. As importers are keenly aware, a strong dollar adds cost to wheat purchases.

On the bullish side, commercial funds have become “net short” in the Chicago Board of Trade Wheat (CBOT) futures. The trend indicates that commercial investors believe prices will continue trending lower. If the sentiment shifts and prices rise, funds will be forced to cover the positions, potentially adding significant volatility and upward pressure on Chicago wheat futures and the market as a whole.

Chart showing the volume of net short positions in wheat futures since early 2022 indicating an uptick in short positions.

Speculative funds hold a net short position in CBOT Wheat futures. If sentiment shifts, forcing a massive covering of the short positions, prices will skyrocket; thus, contributing additional short-term volatility and bullish influence on the market. Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission Data.

Finally, we cannot discuss global wheat prices without addressing the geopolitical risks associated with continued conflicts. Grain continues to flow from the Black Sea, and the market outlook has stabilized. Nevertheless, sentiment could shift quickly if a new development or escalation occurs in the conflict. Similarly, the unknowns of the war in the Middle East could have a detrimental impact on oil prices, directly impacting ocean freight rates and dampening the global economy.

Key Takeaways

In summary, many lurking influences may impact world wheat prices, both bullish and bearish, that are not yet priced into world markets. Buyers should closely monitor the Southern Hemisphere wheat harvest developments, pay attention to upcoming updates to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, and stay well informed regarding changes in the world macroeconomic situation.

With many unknowns, it is vital to maintain a dialogue with your local U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) office and suppliers to capitalize on opportunities to maximize the value of U.S. wheat.

By Tyllor Ledford, USW Market Analyst

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In a series of articles on U.S. supply chain transportation, we have explored the importance of barging and rail on U.S. wheat exports and how they contribute to the reliability of the U.S. marketing system. Barging and rail account for 89% of all U.S. wheat export shipments.

After traveling through the inland logistics system, on average, 90% of all U.S. wheat is exported via maritime transportation routes. Ocean freight is pivotal in wheat exports as the primary mode of transporting U.S. wheat to importers worldwide. With the significance of bulk ocean freight in mind, today’s article will evaluate recent trends in maritime transportation as rates begin to rise after an extended period of stagnant prices.

This chart tracking ocean freight rates the past year show rate rising after a long period of decline.

Ocean freight rate indices are tracking higher after a stretch of stagnation. Until recently, freight markets were weighed by low demand and little price direction. Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report.

Fundamental Shifts

Throughout the fall of 2022, ocean rates steadily decreased, touching COVID-era lows in February 2023, driven down by low demand, an increasing supply of vessels, and normalized oil prices. After a brief uptick in March and April, freight rates and indices remained surprisingly stable until recently.

Oil prices are back on the rise after a steady decline throughout much of 2022 and the initial months of 2023. In April, major oil producers in OPEC and allied countries (OPEC+) decided to decrease oil production by 3.6 million barrels per day (3.7% of global demand). The OPEC+ alliance cited weak demand and “interferences” in the market (Western sanctions on Russian oil production) as the primary reasons for the shift. With rising oil prices, vessel owners are paying more for diesel fuel and pass on the extra cost to their bulk commodity customers via higher rates.

This chart of Brent crude oil prices indicates the market price is rising.

Oil prices have reversed their recent downward trend and are back up around $90/barrel for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. Source: Trading Economics.

En Route to China

Moreover, China’s increasing freight demand is adding cost. In our last freight update, we highlighted China as one of the primary ocean freight rate drivers as the world’s leading importer of dry bulk commodities, specifically coal and iron ore. In 2022, China’s GDP growth slowed to 2.8% compared to 8.1% in 2021; as a result, manufacturing activity and demand for iron ore decreased, helping freight rates come down.

Since then, there has been a resurgence of Chinese economic activity and the possible infusion  of 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in infrastructure projects and lower interest rates to boost the economy. Likewise, Chinese demand for agricultural commodities is on the rise. Recently, for example, China purchased more than 200,000 metric tons of U.S. soft red winter (SRW), the largest single purchase since 2019.

This chart shows The Chinese Import Dry Bulk Freight Index is back on the rise after stagnation throughout 2023.

The Chinese Import Dry Bulk Freight Index is back on the rise after stagnation throughout 2023, driven by the combined demand for iron ore and agricultural products, specifically soybeans. Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange.

Issues To Watch

Despite recent positive signs for the Chinese economy, major property developer China Evergrande Group still faces repercussions of Chapter 15 bankruptcy, casting a shadow of doubt over Chinese economic recovery. At the same time, economists are unsure if recent gains will hold or if a stimulus would be sufficient to support the economy long term. Economic recovery in China, or lack thereof, will continue to drive dry bulk ocean freight trends in the near future.

Another ocean freight concern is the effect of low water levels on the Panama Canal. The Panama Canal serves 5% of world trade, and severe drought continues to impact trade flows. Only up to 32 ships are currently authorized to transit daily, down from 36 ships in normal conditions. Maximum vessel draft has decreased to 44 feet, down from 50 feet. Water levels at Gatun Lake, the primary water source for the canal, were at 24.2 meters (79.7 feet) in mid-September, down from 26.6 meters. It will be important to observe how the emerging El Niño weather pattern may affect water levels and, thus, transportation through the canal.

Integral Part of the System

As the last leg of the U.S. supply chain, ocean freight plays a significant role in transporting U.S. wheat to destinations worldwide. Monitoring trends in ocean freight is critical to understanding the cost and potential price risks for importers. Changes in ocean freight rates can greatly impact the landed cost of U.S. wheat for importers, so it is critical to distinguish what factors influence the price of U.S. wheat at every point in the supply chain, from inland logistics to the ocean vessel.

This article is part of a series outlining the transportation logistics for U.S. wheat, highlighting barge freight, the railroads, infrastructure investments, and maritime transportation trends.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

Amidst the backdrop of diverse perspectives and conflicts of our times, farmers continue planting seeds of sustenance and resilience, stewarding the land for generations, and producing a safe and reliable food supply. The values of integrity, honesty, and care we see in agriculture offer a model for achieving sustainable progress in society and industries, ensuring that resources are managed in ways that benefit present and future generations. Farmers are at the heart of this truth.” – Jim Britt, Director of Communications, Maine Department of Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry. Read more here.

World Wheat Production Ends Record Run

USDA reported this week that following 3 years of record production 2023/24 global wheat production is now forecast down as year-over-year reductions are forecast in the EU, Russia, Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. Total wheat use has now exceeded production for 4 years running and tightening supplies in these major exporters puts exportable supplies at their lowest level in 11 years. Analysts suspect this bullish note will not spark a rally in part because USDA also reduced global wheat use estimates. Read more here.

WASDE Turns 50

USDA on Sept. 12 celebrated the 50th anniversary of its “World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates” or WASDE report. The report was established in September 1973 to “give the public the timeliest analytical information available officially from the Department.” Commenting on the report, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said: “This work behind the scenes gets attention in this moment, but then gets analyzed and utilized for weeks on end and helps to establish the market prices …” It is important for trade and global competition, he added. The U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Supply and Demand report is based and expands on the monthly WASDE report. Listen to Vilsack’s comments here.

Wheat Disease Impact Much Lower in 2022

According to an analysis by the Crop Protection Network, disease in 2022 reduced wheat production by 3.6% in surveyed U.S. states and by 1.9% in Ontario. Overall reduction in 2022 was less than half that of any other year of data collection (2018-2021), and percentage losses were also much lower than previous years. Total estimated yield loss in 2022 from wheat disease in the U.S. and Ontario was 55.7 million bushels, valued at nearly $500 million. This does not include the economic costs of disease management practices such as fungicide seed treatment or foliar application, crop scouting, and development of disease-resistant varieties. Read more here.

This grid pattern represents the percentage of wheat production in 2022 by U.S. state and the Canadian province of Ontario among the states and Ontario surveyed by the Crop Protection Network for an analysis of wheat disease yield impact.

This grid pattern represents the percentage of wheat production in 2022 by U.S. state and the Canadian province of Ontario among the states and Ontario surveyed by the Crop Protection Network for an analysis of  disease yield impact.

Brabender Introduces New Farinograph

According to a company statement, Brabender has introduced a new “FarinoGraph” that offers new features, the latest technology, optimized user friendliness and more. Farinograph is used to determine water absorption capacity of flour and the rheological properties of dough. “Measurements with the new “FarinoGraph” are now even more automated and timesaving,” said Viktor Schäfer, Brabender business development manager software solutions. “For instance, we have implemented an artificial intelligence based on previous measurements to predict the measurement curve and added a function to save measurement time.” Read more here.

Pellman Makes Rounds with USW Policy Team

The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) brought more than 20 wheat farmers to Washington, D.C. Sept. 12-13 for its annual fall “Fly-In.” The effort included two days of meeting members of Congress. Led by the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Trade Policy team, USW Secretary/Treasurer Jim Pellman joined his fellow wheat farmers at the Capitol to voice support USDA’s Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program, as well as the American Farmers Feed the World Act of 2023.

Pictured with Jim Pellman (far right) are Oklahoma farmer and NAWG Vice President Keeff Felty (left) and North Dakota Congressman Kevin Cramer (center) .

Pictured with Jim Pellman (far right) are Oklahoma farmer and NAWG Vice President Keeff Felty (left) and North Dakota Congressman Kevin Cramer (center) .

 

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

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As we continue a series of articles on U.S. supply chain logistics, rail is arguably the most important mode of transporting wheat for export.

According to a recent USDA Modal Share Analysis Study, rail accounted for an average of 59% of inland transportation for wheat exports between 2016 and 2020, or an average annual total of 17.0 million metric tons. This article will focus on the importance of rail freight in wheat exports and address current trends in rail performance.

Two vertical bar charts showing the volume of U.S. wheat shipped domestically and to export locations by truck, rail and barge between 2004 and 2020.

Rail and barging are the main modes of transportation for wheat exports, as they can handle large volumes of grain over long distances. Together, they transport 89% of the total wheat export shipments. Source: USDA Modal Share Analysis Study.

An Interesting Year

In 2022, increased demand for railcars and performance issues sent U.S. rail rates soaring, with Secondary Railcar Auction Market Bids hitting their highest since 2014. Since then, rail rates have eased drastically. From March 2023 to July 2023 secondary bids for railcars have been negative, indicating that the current supply of railcars is sufficient for meeting the needs of shippers.

Decreased volumes and the subsequent decrease in rail tariff rates and Secondary Railcar Market Auction Bids have added additional pressure to already low basis levels, helping boost the competitiveness of U.S. wheat to importers. However, as the 2023 soy and corn harvest progresses, we can expect rail rates to rise due to increased demand and a higher volume of grain moving via rail.

This vertical bar and line chart show a comparison of grain carloads average from previous years to the current 4 week period up to 8/25/23.

According to the latest Grain Transportation Report, grain carloads (corn, soybeans, and wheat) moved by Class I railroads were down 3% from the previous week and are sitting 22% below the three-year average. The current decreased volume alleviates pressure on basis as rail companies have a sufficient supply of cars to meet the current demand. Source: September 3, 2023 USDA Grain Transportation Report.

Even so, the outlook for fall logistics appears positive. In a recent interview with “Freightwaves,” transportation export Jay O’Neil indicated that “Weather is always a question mark that makes it [performance] impossible to predict. But overall, I think the railroads… have some excess capacity because of [reduced grain export volumes]. I think [railroads] are very much looking forward to the harvest season … So, I don’t see any particular influences right now that should get in their way and prevent them from providing a decent service for harvest.”

Part of a Reliable System

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is committed to sharing transparent and pertinent information to customers about inland logistics issues. It is beneficial for U.S. wheat importers to be aware of transportation trends, as seasonal shifts and potential issues have a direct influence on export basis and the Free-on-Board export price.

Encompassing the largest share of inland logistics, the railroads are a critical component for moving U.S. wheat to export. After last years’ service disruptions, steps have been taken to help address the root issues such as hiring additional crew and investing in infrastructure. U.S. railroads are committed to moving U.S.-grown commodities. With diverse origination options and numerous modes of transportation, regardless of the class or export point, rail helps U.S. wheat remain the most reliable choice for world importers.

This article is part of a series outlining the inland logistics for U.S. wheat, highlighting barge freight, the railroads, infrastructure investments, and maritime transportation trends.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“When we went to ethanol production, we had to have significantly more acres of corn and soybeans to a certain degree with biodiesel. You go back to 2006 and 2007, I remember traveling around the states telling Oklahoma wheat producers, ‘You have got a $1.25 to $1.50 free increase in your price simply because of the corn industry and bean industry.’ The corn industry has to increase their acreage dramatically, and soybeans have got to come in there and protect their acres.” – Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson discussing a decline in wheat acreage in an interview with Oklahoma Farm Report’s Ron Hays.

Grain Deal Talks Expected to Resume in Sochi

As reported by several news outlets this week, the much-anticipated meeting between Turkish and Russian presidents over the fate of the grain initiative will be held on Sept. 4 in the Russian resort city of Sochi. The top issue will be the resumption of the grain deal that allowed the export of more than 33 million tons of wheat, corn and other food products from Ukraine to the world markets through Turkish straits. Russia canceled it on July 17 as it could not transport its own products due to the sanctions. Red more here.

USDA: Weather Slows U.S. Spring Wheat Harvest

World-Grain.com cited a USDA report that noted the winter wheat crop was “largely in the bin” but the spring crop was just more than half harvested and progressing slowly due to weather delays. The 2023 US winter wheat harvest was 96% complete by Aug. 20, USDA said in the final aggregate winter wheat harvest update in its weekly Crop Progress report. That compared with 94% a year earlier and matched the five-year average for the date. States with winter wheat remaining in fields at that time included California (97% complete), Colorado (99%), Idaho (70%), Michigan (95%), Montana (78%), Nebraska (99%), South Dakota (97%) and Washington (87%). Read more here.

High Pasta Prices Could Set in As Canada’s Durum Crop Suffers

An Aug. 30 report by Reuters suggests pasta lovers must brace to pay even higher prices for their favorite dish, as drought in Canada and bad weather in Europe damages crops of durum wheat and reduces supplies available to flour millers and food companies. Some estimates released prior to the report release pointed to production falling below 4 MMT. Two upcoming estimates will lead to potential revisions to this data, with Statistics Canada to report official estimates for 2022-23 ending stocks on Sept. 8, followed by an updated production estimate on Sept. 14. Read more here.

Quality Survey Shows Reduced French Wheat Protein Levels

Updated quality results from the 2023 French soft wheat harvest showed the percentage of the crop meeting protein requirements for milling had dropped to 91% from an 93%, but remained above a five-year average of 87%, farm office FranceAgriMer said. The survey by was based on data representing 92% of the harvest, compared with 80% the previous week. It also showed that 69% of the crop had test weights above 76 kg per hectolitre (kg/hl), down from 74% the previous week and a five-year average of 79%. Read more here.

Breeding Wheat Plants with Better Starch

A team of UK researchers has figured out how low-quality starch grows in wheat. The discovery, published in The Plant Cell, could help breed plants with more control over their starch. As well as being an important nutritional source of carbohydrates, starch is a valuable ingredient in brewing, glue, paper, textiles, and construction materials. “We discovered that the ubiquitous enzyme, (PHS1) is crucial for the formation of B-type granules in wheat,” says lead author Dr Nitin Uttam Kamble, a postdoctoral scientist at the John Innes Centre, UK. “This is a scientific breakthrough … it shows that the A- and B-type granules of wheat form via different biochemical mechanisms. We can now use this knowledge to create variations in starch for different food and industrial applications.” Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

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News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

The team had a chance to visit all aspects of the supply chain, from farm to export elevator, and learn about the FGIS inspection process, giving them a sense of how US wheat quality is ensured throughout the way. These visits provide reassurance to overseas buyers that they are getting the quality they want, and face-to-face visits go a long way in providing trust and confidence in our buyers and establishing long-term relationships.Chad Weigand, USW Regional Director, Sub-Saharan Africa, discussing a trade team from Nigeria and Kenya visiting the U.S. wheat industry in August 2023.

Map of Canada showing significant drought in western Canadian provinces. Map Source Canadian Drought Monitor.

Canadian Durum and Wheat Crop Watch

An Aug. 10 Western Producer article said Canadian market analyst Bruce Burnett on July 19 forecasted a national average durum yield of 26 bu. per acre, down from afive-year average of 37.3 bu. per acre. Burnett forecasted total Canadian production of 4.09 million metric tons (MMT), down 25% from last year. The article included a Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission officer saying the crop has further deteriorated since Burnett’s presentation. He thinks the production number “will start with a three, although it will likely be higher than the 3.2 MMT produced in 2021.” Read more here.

Durum Foods Online Course

North Dakota State University and the Northern Crops Institute recently launched an online course titled “Developing Innovations with Durum: More than Just Pasta.” The course costs $250 and will the knowledge on how durum can be beneficial in other facets than just pasta. It will touch on the many unique traits of durum, nutrition components, an overview on procession, as well as sourcing the material. Participants can work at their own pace and will enjoy lectures from milling experts, understand how to utilize this product, and will know exactly where they can buy durum flour for cooking and baking. The course can be completed at the participant’s on pace. Register online at: http://durumfoods.com/.

Wheat’s Influence on World History

Recently Kansas Public Radio reported on the surprising role of wheat in world history from ancient Greece to modern-day Ukraine and Kansas. The non-profit network conducted an interview with Scott Reynolds Nelson, the author of “Oceans of Grain: How American Wheat Remade the World.” Listen to the interview here.

The Journey of Wheat

Oregon Wheat has created an “infographic” that depicts the journey Oregon wheat takes to from the farm to its end destination for a domestic or overseas customer. Here is a link to “Follow the Wheat.” To view the U.S. Wheat Associates program “Wholesome: The Journey of U.S. Wheat,” visit our Vimeo page here.

South Dakota Wheat to Move Its Office

The South Dakota Wheat Commission has made the decision to relocate its office from Pierre to Brookings, South Dakota. The new location, on the campus of the South Dakota State University Research Park, will allow for increased dialog and collaboration with the SDSU research team.  The move is expected to be complete by Oct.1. The Commission’s new mailing address is:

South Dakota Wheat Commission

2301 Research Park Way, Suite 253

Brookings SD 57006

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

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Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and South America represent a substantial portion of U.S. wheat sales, accounting for around 33% of all U.S. wheat exports. Due to proximity and sophisticated, quality-focused markets, Latin America and the Caribbean see competitive advantages in U.S. wheat supplies. In fact, while total demand for U.S. wheat slowed the last two years, sales to Latin American countries increased.

This trend signifies the value of U.S. wheat to customers throughout the region. This article will analyze the recent trends in Latin American markets and highlight current opportunities for U.S. wheat importers based on their patterns.

Looking Back

In the marketing year (MY) 2022/23, South American wheat imports were 1.6 MMT, up 29% from MY 2021/22, while U.S. wheat exports decreased by 2% from the prior year and were 17% below the five-year average. On a country level, significant sales increases were observed in Chile, Ecuador, and Brazil, among others.

Despite high prices, customers in Latin America and the Caribbean continued seeing the value in U.S. wheat classes, particularly soft red winter wheat (SRW). SRW sales were up 28% from the year prior and 31% above the five-year average regionwide.

This is a bar chart showing sales of U.S. SRW wheat to Latin American countries for 2022 and 2023 showing increased demand.

SRW exports increased in several Latin American countries in MY 2022/23. Sales were up 361% in Ecuador, 128% in the Dominican Republic, 99% in Honduras, 50% in Nicaragua, and 130% in Venezuela. Source: USDA FGIS Export Data.

Emphasis On Value

Moving into MY 2023/24, SRW remains an excellent value. The latest U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Price Report put U.S. SRW at $249/MT FOB, competitively priced with other origins. Despite the recent volatility in wheat markets, SRW prices remain at their lowest level since the summer of 2021, and wheat futures have just breached the $6.00/bu threshold.

This line chart shows how U.S. SRW and soft white wheat export prices have declined of the past year.

SRW prices have hovered at their lowest level since July 2021. Harvest pressure and the above-average production weighs on the export basis and CBOT futures. Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report.

Sales of SRW are tracking above last year’s pace. The most recent commercial sales put SRW commitments at 1.6 MMT, and the majority of this increase can be attributed to purchases from Latin American and Caribbean customers. In South America, SRW purchases are up 37%, while total U.S. wheat sales are down 34% in the region.

The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates put SRW exports at 3.7 MMT, up 26% from the year prior and up 37% from the five-year average.

This line chart compares the export price of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat to competing supplies from Russia, Australis, Canada and France.

SRW has become competitive with other world suppliers. As of August 15, SRW was near parity with 12.5% (dry matter basis) Russian wheat. Source: AgriCensus Price Data and the U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report.

Risk Management is Vital

As mentioned in previous articles, the war in the Black Sea is a continued risk in the world wheat market. Though risk premiums have been eroded and the market appears to have reached some level of “comfort” with the war, prices can spike in an instant, especially as fighting has intensified in the weeks since the dissolution of the Black Sea Grain Agreement.

As seen in commercial sales to many Latin American customers, SRW demonstrates an excellent value as a high-quality and competitively priced soft wheat. Nevertheless, with the potential for more upside risk than a downward opportunity for SRW and all U.S. wheat classes, importers must watch market conditions closely to maximize SRW’s value in their blends. Your local USW office will be an important partner in this effort.

By Tyllor Ledford, USW Market Analyst

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News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“The abrupt termination of the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a matter of grave concern. Global food security should not become a casualty of war. People in poor countries struggling with food and energy price inflation stand to be hit hardest by the termination of the initiative: Prices for future delivery of wheat and corn are already rising. Therefore, I urge all parties to make every effort to come back to the negotiating table.” — World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, from an Inside U.S. Trade article. Read more here.

Political cartoon by Michael de Adder, The Washington Post, of Russian President Putin holding a bag labelled "Grain" hostage with a gun.

Copyright Michael de Adder, The Washington Post

Club Wheat Outlook

Matthew Weaver with Capital Press interviewed Washington Grain Commission Executive Director Casey Chumrau about the 2023 club wheat crop and the outlook for 2014. The region’s wheat industry anticipates lower yields overall this year compared to last. Outlook for club production is unclear at this point, Chumrau said. “A lot of the planted area for club is in regions in Washington where it still is looking promising for production,” she said. “The club acres seem to be in some of those areas with better prospects.” Read more here.

Prepare for Global Drought

In a World-Grain.com article, World Weather, Inc., agricultural meteorologist Drew Lerner writes about the risk of future global drought and the need to prepare for a serious food shortage. “A series of serious droughts occurred in 2007-08 that resulted in reduced food supply in portions of North America, eastern Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and parts of South America,” he wrote. “Most of the droughts at that time did not impact each of the listed regions of the world at the same time, but enough production cut occurred to lead to the first modern day grain and oilseed supply shortage. The world muddled its way through that event mostly unscathed, but what about the future? Will we be lucky enough to get along with limited food stocks?” Read more here.

South Dakota State University wheat breeder Dunish Sehgal in a wheat field.

Dr. Sunish Sehgal. Photo copyright South Dakota State University.

Honored Wheat Breeder

Sunish Sehgal, associate professor and South Dakota State University (SDSU) winter wheat breeder, was honored by the Wheat Quality Council with the 2023 Millers Choice Best of Show Award for the second consecutive year. The honor annually recognizes the wheat breeder of the variety that is most well-liked by U.S. millers participating in the WQC’s evaluation program. The main goal of the SDSU hard winter wheat breeding group is to develop high-yielding wheat varieties with resilience to biotic and abiotic stress and provide end-use quality for the milling and baking industry. “At SDSU, we lay as much emphasis on wheat quality as on yield,” Sehgal said. Read the full story here.

Grain Sciences Event Calendar

Dr. M. Hikmet Boyacioglu, Applications Development Specialist with KPM, shares a monthly “Cereal & Grain Sciences Events Calendar. The August calendar is now online. See it and upcoming monthly calendars at https://lp.kpmanalytics.com/en-us/cerealgrain-science-event-calendar.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.